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> Winter 2017-18
Apocalypse
post Feb 17 2018, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Feb 16 2018, 12:50 PM) *
Well if your snow ain't gone yet it sure as heck will be after this.....Jebus🙈🙈🙈
[attachment=348870:IMG_6355.PNG]


I think you need to charge your phone laugh.gif
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Lake effect
post Feb 18 2018, 08:09 AM
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This winter is going according to early forecasts. The SE ridge is now dominating, and will likely continue to dominate well into March, which should mean temps being above average for much of that time, and storms being pushed to our West. We still have 20cms of snowpack, but that will be murdered this week, and I am now looking forward to seeing grass around here for the first time since mid December. Normally, this happens in mid March, so it will feel like an early spring for us.

Attached File  gfs_ens_z500a_us_13.png ( 143.71K ) Number of downloads: 1
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snowgeek93
post Feb 18 2018, 10:56 AM
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Who's to say we won't see more snow before the season is done? March and April can still deliver some surprise snowfalls as we've seen in the past. I'm not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 115.1cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 69
Days with Snow Cover: 53

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm)
February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Stl
post Feb 18 2018, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 18 2018, 10:56 AM) *
Who's to say we won't see more snow before the season is done? March and April can still deliver some surprise snowfalls as we've seen in the past. I'm not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet.


NAO and AO still seem to go negative. I would be precautious with any models right now and not make to many ideas for warm temperatures.

Southwestern Ontario though is a different story.
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dsichewski
post Feb 18 2018, 05:07 PM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Feb 17 2018, 08:52 PM) *
I think you need to charge your phone laugh.gif


Don't worry I did...

Everyday for the next two weeks is above 0 by at least 2 degrees and maybe 1cm of snow in the forecast if lucky will likely be more rain...and an Olympic sized pool amount of rain coming....absolutely BRUTAL!
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square
post Yesterday, 03:00 AM
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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Feb 18 2018, 05:07 PM) *
Don't worry I did...

Everyday for the next two weeks is above 0 by at least 2 degrees and maybe 1cm of snow in the forecast if lucky will likely be more rain...and an Olympic sized pool amount of rain coming....absolutely BRUTAL!



BRUTAL is right! We don't get this much rain in the summer rain storms! This kind of weather in winter gets me SO depressed sad.gif
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MrMusic
post Yesterday, 11:02 AM
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Feb is done as far as winter goes around here by the looks of it.
I have zero interest in a cold pattern returning for March. Cold March's are totally useless and unenjoyable down here. Lots of cold rain, maybe some snow that melts in a day etc.....

After the mid-Jan outlook calling for an ice box Feb i think we can hold off on worrying too much about March yet. In the shorter term, sustained winter weather is done through the rest of Feb according to all guidance


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Yesterday, 11:24 AM
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Euro ensemble temp anomalies for the 1st week of March



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Yesterday, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 19 2018, 11:02 AM) *
Feb is done as far as winter goes around here by the looks of it.
I have zero interest in a cold pattern returning for March. Cold March's are totally useless and unenjoyable down here. Lots of cold rain, maybe some snow that melts in a day etc.....

After the mid-Jan outlook calling for an ice box Feb i think we can hold off on worrying too much about March yet. In the shorter term, sustained winter weather is done through the rest of Feb according to all guidance


Yep, all systems on the GFS showng rain for next ten days, and like you, unless we have a great snowpack in place like 2014, then March snow is wasted on me...just prolongs the pain in my view. The ultra long range seasonal guidance has performed better than the medium range month to month predictions. The long range guidance called for the SE ridge to become really strong during February and usher in a warm March and early spring for the North East. Bring it on I say.
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Lake effect
post Yesterday, 12:33 PM
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The GFS has only two days where daytime temps stay below freezing in the next two weeks, and then only just.
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snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 12:47 PM
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I find it hard to believe we won't see anymore snow before the winter is out. That would put our last snowfall of the season at Feb 10th! blink.gif

Maybe sustained winter weather is over but I don't see why we still can't see some more snow to boost our totals a bit.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 115.1cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 69
Days with Snow Cover: 53

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm)
February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Yesterday, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 19 2018, 12:47 PM) *
I find it hard to believe we won't see anymore snow before the winter is out. That would put our last snowfall of the season at Feb 10th! blink.gif

Maybe sustained winter weather is over but I don't see why we still can't see some more snow to boost our totals a bit.


No one is saying there won't be snowfall...in fact it would be remarkable if there wasn't, but I couldn't care less if there was going forward. As you say, I do think that sustained cold periods are unlikely given the forecasts and the ever rising daily averages, especially once we get past mid March. This will only be amplified further if the snow pack has disapeared from vast swathes of the country and the ground begins to warm up.
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Lake effect
post Yesterday, 02:46 PM
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Ice is really on the retreat, and with the next couple of days bringing double diggit temps, this will open up a lot more. If there is a cold snap with accomodating winds, the LES machine could fire up again this winter.

Attached File  hicecon_00__1_.gif ( 24.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

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MrMusic
post Yesterday, 08:39 PM
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one bonus around here towerds spring is that Lake Ontario is still 6-7 degrees with no ice. We'll still get those spring days with a cold inversion, but we're starting off with decent water temps. Not 1-2 degrees. A few warm spells in spring and the water should start to warm earlier than normal.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Yesterday, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 19 2018, 08:39 PM) *
one bonus around here towerds spring is that Lake Ontario is still 6-7 degrees with no ice. We'll still get those spring days with a cold inversion, but we're starting off with decent water temps. Not 1-2 degrees. A few warm spells in spring and the water should start to warm earlier than normal.


It could help also a snow system with sending some moisture for us wink.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Today, 10:27 AM
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I was looking at the EPS and GEFS suits this morning, and they differ a bit as we get into the first week of March with the GEFS showing a gradual shift to slightly below normal temp anomalies for the first week and the euro showing warmer than normal 2m temps until about the end of the run with colder anomalies developing to the SW of ON.
Both however do show a gradual breakdown of the SER and developing ridging for the West with a muted downstream trough.
I believe if we do get the ridge to develop out West chances are the GEFS would be correct with its gradual shift to colder anomalies for ON in the LR. This is coupled with the potential for strong blocking to take place leading to a possible colder than average March or at least the first half of March depending on how things develop.

Here’s the H5 pattern on the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS for the end of each of there runs.
Attached File  B9CAE4F9_18A2_4A34_A36D_3649C69E9110.png ( 153.58K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  65679020_EC3A_496D_BBE5_ABCDF51FDE8A.png ( 209.72K ) Number of downloads: 0

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Stl
post Today, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 20 2018, 10:27 AM) *
I was looking at the EPS and GEFS suits this morning, and they differ a bit as we get into the first week of March with the GEFS showing a gradual shift to slightly below normal temp anomalies for the first week and the euro showing warmer than normal 2m temps until about the end of the run with colder anomalies developing to the SW of ON.
Both however do show a gradual breakdown of the SER and developing ridging for the West with a muted downstream trough.
I believe if we do get the ridge to develop out West chances are the GEFS would be correct with its gradual shift to colder anomalies for ON in the LR. This is coupled with the potential for strong blocking to take place leading to a possible colder than average March or at least the first half of March depending on how things develop.

Here’s the H5 pattern on the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS for the end of each of there runs.
Attached File  B9CAE4F9_18A2_4A34_A36D_3649C69E9110.png ( 153.58K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  65679020_EC3A_496D_BBE5_ABCDF51FDE8A.png ( 209.72K ) Number of downloads: 0



MJO seem going that way too with phase 8 and 1.
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