Long-range Options

[goblue96]

What's considered "long range" for tropical systems? I've only followed them once they've formed into something (TS/Hurricane). But never as they are forming or forecast to be forming. Is it a 48-hour thing, a week out, two weeks out?

[MAC292OH10]

What's considered "long range" for tropical systems? I've only followed them once they've formed into something (TS/Hurricane). But never as they are forming or forecast to be forming. Is it a 48-hour thing, a week out, two weeks out?

gotta leave for work so im time limited...

long story short, for the long range the biggest indicator of favorable conditions i have found is to time or track negative 200hpa anomalies....usually running in 15-30 day pulses, you can use phase diagrams of model forecast charts...as enso varies these pulses can tend to be more erratic and unreliable...

00Z UKmet phase diagram


00Z 200hpa anomalie forecast

[goblue96]

gotta leave for work so im time limited...

long story short, for the long range the biggest indicator of favorable conditions i have found is to time or track negative 200hpa anomalies....usually running in 15-30 day pulses, you can use phase diagrams of model forecast charts...as enso varies these pulses can tend to be more erratic and unreliable...

00Z UKmet phase diagram


00Z 200hpa anomalie forecast

This is a decent start. On the last image, what color is better for development the green or orange?

[Removed_Member_OHweather2_*]

This is a decent start. On the last image, what color is better for development the green or orange?

Green, as it shows large scale upward motion.

[goblue96]

Do you have links for those maps? I've tried to find them but can't, thanks.

[jdrenken]

Do you have links for those maps? I've tried to find them but can't, thanks.

Here you go. Quite a few goodies on there.

The particular maps are under the forecast bullet and 200-hPa Velocity Potential Forecasts section. Also, if you go to the 'Weather Questions & Info' you can find specific Hurricane links.

[goblue96]

Thanks.

It's looking like June is going to be a relatively quiet month almost zero development based on my very amateur intrepretation of these maps.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 7 2011, 04:11 PM

[MAC292OH10]

Thanks.

It's looking like June is going to be a relatively quiet month almost zero development based on my very amateur interpretation of these maps.

pretty much this is the first week we had a marginal chance of Caribbean development in which upper level shear has pretty much nixed that...

as an example of tracking negative 200HPA anomalies "on the fly" so to speak with the GFS...not full proof but it works,not always as straight forward as below either and sometimes the GFS is just way out of sync with other models forecast of MJO phase....

current 200 HPA anomalies


18Z GFS

@144hr...note the Indian Ocean tropical cyclone...MJO phase likely 2-3



@384hr...note the West Pacific cyclone....MJO phase likely 6-7



if MJO propagation holds true to the 15ish day pulse, were looking at possibly the last week of june at the earliest to first week of july at the latest for our next "window in time" of potential development...and as the next 10-15 days pass we will be able to fine tune and zero in...this is barring anything erratic or sporadic obviously...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 7 2011, 10:26 PM

[Phased Vort]

pretty much this is the first week we had a marginal chance of Caribbean development in which upper level shear has pretty much nixed that...

as an example of tracking negative 200HPA anomalies "on the fly" so to speak with the GFS...not full proof but it works,not always as straight forward as below either and sometimes the GFS is just way out of sync with other models forecast of MJO phase....

current 200 HPA anomalies


18Z GFS

@144hr...note the Indian Ocean tropical cyclone...MJO phase likely 2-3



@384hr...note the West Pacific cyclone....MJO phase likely 6-7



if MJO propagation holds true to the 15ish day pulse, were looking at possibly the last week of june at the earliest to first week of july at the latest for our next "window in time" of potential development...and as the next 10-15 days pass we will be able to fine tune and zero in...this is barring anything erratic or sporadic obviously...

Great post here. I like how you spaced out the time frame, especially with the ECMWF monthly forecast system weekly forecast indicating renewed overall lower pressures over the central Caribbean 650 to 750 hours out ( around late June to early July), which would coincide with time frame talked about on your post.


Also, ECMWF monthly forecast system weekly forecast indicates the possible start of the first few CV waves ejecting off western Africa.

[goblue96]

So, images like this one should be taken a big grain of salt then.



Because that blob in gulf coast looks like a Tropical Storm to me. But this is like third or fourth time, I've noticed something like this. First, it was in Texas, then, off the west coast of Florida, and now in Alabama/Mississippi. But always around H384.

[MAC292OH10]

So, images like this one should be taken a big grain of salt then.



Because that blob in gulf coast looks like a Tropical Storm to me. But this is like third or fourth time, I've noticed something like this. First, it was in Texas, then, off the west coast of Florida, and now in Alabama/Mississippi. But always around H384.

unfortunately nothing from that image actually indicates a TS(1010mb low with very weak wind barbs)...but its not totally unprecedented or uncommon that one of these QPF bombs turns into something more then a surface trof or invest...and its not totally unprecedented or uncommon that the GFS will show a tropical cyclone with many closed contours in the long range either(as shown a couple posts above in the WPAC view as a quick reference)...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 8 2011, 09:02 PM

[goblue96]

Like I said, it's been bouncing around the gulf over the past couple days. Always in a different location and usually in H384 frame. It's like it's throwing stuff against the wall and seeing what might stick.

Also, what causes the models to creates the "QPF blobs" out of what looks like nothing? I see nothing on the map that would cause that amount of prepicipation.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 9 2011, 12:04 AM

[goblue96]

I keep seeing this "QPF bomb" appearing on the maps somewhere in the gulf for the past couple days now. It's been there most of the week.

[Phased Vort]

I keep seeing this "QPF bomb" appearing on the maps somewhere in the gulf for the past couple days now. It's been there most of the week.

Looks like an indication of a possible tropical wave at least, possibly invest potential.


ECMWF Ensembles control and monthly control, also indicate the same thing, 116 to 20 days from now, which takes us to the end of the month, which is when MJO pulse bringing conducive upward motion energy could be hitting the GOMEX and Caribbean.

Moderator Message:

Unless this thread is used to discuss something other than possible events that have nothing to do with all the regions convered by the differetn tropical regional threads, this discussion about the GOMEX, must continue in its specific thread.

[goblue96]

Looks like an indication of a possible tropical wave at least, possibly invest potential.
ECMWF Ensembles control and monthly control, also indicate the same thing, 116 to 20 days from now, which takes us to the end of the month, which is when MJO pulse bringing conducive upward motion energy could be hitting the GOMEX and Caribbean.

Moderator Message:

Unless this thread is used to discuss something other than possible events that have nothing to do with all the regions convered by the differetn tropical regional threads, this discussion about the GOMEX, must continue in its specific thread.

A general question: I know with winter weather systems the chances of these forecasts verifying are quite low (less than 10% if that high). Is it safe to assume that the same verification chances are applicable to tropical systems as well?

I'll make sure to put any more potential systems in their appropriate threads.

Thanks for everyone's help with teaching me about these systems and their formation.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 10 2011, 12:48 PM

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensme...&hour=144hr

i dont think i have ever seen such a massive trough in the atlantic for the heart of cane season. the ridge is almost non-existent. for the long range i think this looks alot like 2010. close in development seems unlikely with that pattern. anyone see this changing?

[Removed_Member_OHweather2_*]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensme...&hour=144hr

i dont think i have ever seen such a massive trough in the atlantic for the heart of cane season. the ridge is almost non-existent. for the long range i think this looks alot like 2010. close in development seems unlikely with that pattern. anyone see this changing?

Those troughs get more massive each and every year, don't they?