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> January 16-17 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
The Day After To...
post Jan 7 2018, 03:01 PM
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Been a while since I opened a thread...GFS has been showing a storm signal for several consecutive runs...interesting to see what the resident cycle nerds can come up with.

12z GFS below


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MP - Bucks Co PA
post Jan 7 2018, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 7 2018, 03:01 PM) *
Been a while since I opened a thread...GFS has been showing a storm signal for several consecutive runs...interesting to see what the resident cycle nerds can come up with.

12z GFS below



They all look good 9 days out. Hopefully you are on to something.
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Storms R us
post Jan 7 2018, 08:20 PM
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There is a warm up coming during that period so there might actually be rain for parts of the Mid Atlantic but will see.
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phillyfan
post Jan 7 2018, 11:28 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 7 2018, 08:20 PM) *
There is a warm up coming during that period so there might actually be rain for parts of the Mid Atlantic but will see.

Warm up is actually just after this time period.

Past runs had the warm up by the 19th. Warm air coming in quicker on the 0z gfs on the 17th now. We'll see what the wheel keeps spinning in future runs.

and cold air comes back the next day at least on this run.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jan 7 2018, 11:44 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Undertakerson
post Jan 8 2018, 04:34 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 7 2018, 03:01 PM) *
Been a while since I opened a thread...GFS has been showing a storm signal for several consecutive runs...interesting to see what the resident cycle nerds can come up with.

12z GFS below

We've been waiting (for days now) to open this date - but we regular openers grow weary of doing all the lifting in that department.

This one has our attention as the SOI lines up well - that much I'm fairly sure of.

However, I take exception to your opening the thread and not mentioning anything more than "the GFS has shown" -- what has it shown, why has it shown, do ANY of the other models agree? What about ensembles?

I also would like to see some more content relative to teleconnections or any other discussion from any other sources.


So - as for the temperature discussion:

WPC verifies that temps take another dive at the end of this week/weekend (would be the 14/15 time period)

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE
NEARLY EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd


As of now, this event looks to be a non phases over running event - no big storm. Late in the period, a coastal storm gets going but is both far offshore and almost beyond this threads date range. Could that change? Sure. Will it? TBD.

Regard the Euro - note how the So. H5 reflections a mere blips on the map. - GFS/CMC not much more

Attached Image

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 8 2018, 06:10 AM
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The Day After To...
post Jan 8 2018, 06:09 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 8 2018, 04:34 AM) *
However, I take exception to your opening the thread and not mentioning anything more than "the GFS has shown" -- what has it shown, why has it shown, do ANY of the other models agree? What about ensembles?

I also would like to see some more content relative to teleconnections or any other discussion from any other sources.

There is no rule that states a thread must have these elements in the OP...and as we are both long term posters here, and friends, I take exception to the elitism here. I kind of expect better...we've both been here a long time.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 8 2018, 06:14 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 8 2018, 06:09 AM) *
There is no rule that states a thread must have these elements in the OP...and as we are both long term posters here, and friends, I take exception to the elitism here. I kind of expect better...we've both been here a long time.

You are correct in that there are no "rules" per se. You are mistaken as to elitism. What is wrong with asking for some "beef" to the burger?

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The Day After To...
post Jan 8 2018, 06:22 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 8 2018, 06:14 AM) *
You are correct in that there are no "rules" per se. You are mistaken as to elitism. What is wrong with asking for some "beef" to the burger?

It's just the way the post came off. You are more then welcome to add those things...I posted the thread in the middle of a busy day.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 8 2018, 06:52 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 8 2018, 06:22 AM) *
It's just the way the post came off. You are more then welcome to add those things...I posted the thread in the middle of a busy day.

QUOTE
and as we are both long term posters here, and friends, .....I kind of expect better...we've both been here a long time


As a "long time poster here" - and proposing a friendship to me - and having been here a long time - I submit that you should have

Known enough to have the ability to post more. Come to expect me to hold long time posters to a higher standard. And had the experience of the ages to reach towards those expectations.

I am not trying to be grumpy nor elitist though. I suppose since I too expected more, we are equally disappointed. My mistake.

I hope this works out for you and the others who love the cold and snow.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 8 2018, 06:29 PM
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post Jan 8 2018, 08:43 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 8 2018, 06:52 AM) *
As a "long time poster here" - and proposing a friendship to me - and having been here a long time - I submit that you should have

Known enough to have the ability to post more. Come to expect me to hold long time posters to a higher standard. And had the experience of the ages to reach towards those expectations.

You last comment tells me all I really need to know though - and verifies your original post and my comment in response. You made it in a hurry, without much thought, in order to place mark (for whatever reason).

I am not trying to be grumpy nor elitist though. I suppose since I too expected more, we are equally disappointed. My mistake.

I hope this works out for you and the others who love the cold and snow.


I really didn't want to comment on the back and forth of you and TDAT but I feel that you posted the back and forth publicly, I too will post my thoughts publicly.

I have to agree with both of you on this matter. When I first read your post UTS I was actually feeling the same way TDAT was and the post wasn't even directed at me and that says a lot. I feel that sometimes you can come across very condescending and harsh to some posters, whether intentional or not. Some are no doubt deserving, but most are not. We understand you pretty much rule the roost around here and your knowledge on the matter is deep, but TBH this forum would be extremely boring if you were the only one on here. Just like we correct some others on the way they approach this forum and their comments, you are not above reproach on the matter. Again, I read it the same way and was taken back myself. This is why some, if not most on here don't start threads. This is a hobby forum, yes serious and waaay better then when I first joined, but none the less a learning, hobby forum for us meteo nuts.

With that said,

TDAT, although UTS tone may have not been appropriate his comments on "more beef" with the burger is appropriate. When you start off a thread, it should really be more informative than a picture of 1 model and 1 model run and a couple sentences. You have been around long enough to know that really isn't going to cut it. If you were in a hurry you should have commented so and said you would follow up with more details and maps when you have time later on. I am not going to regurg everything UTS said to include but for the furture we all need to start threads with substance. You know we don't model hug.

That's all I have to say in the matter. Lets move on and post meaningful stuff, not attack each other. It serves none of us when we tear each other down. Lets be cool cool.gif
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The Day After To...
post Jan 8 2018, 01:01 PM
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QUOTE(plowxpress @ Jan 8 2018, 08:43 AM) *
I really didn't want to comment on the back and forth of you and TDAT but I feel that you posted the back and forth publicly, I too will post my thoughts publicly.

I have to agree with both of you on this matter. When I first read your post UTS I was actually feeling the same way TDAT was and the post wasn't even directed at me and that says a lot. I feel that sometimes you can come across very condescending and harsh to some posters, whether intentional or not. Some are no doubt deserving, but most are not. We understand you pretty much rule the roost around here and your knowledge on the matter is deep, but TBH this forum would be extremely boring if you were the only one on here. Just like we correct some others on the way they approach this forum and their comments, you are not above reproach on the matter. Again, I read it the same way and was taken back myself. This is why some, if not most on here don't start threads. This is a hobby forum, yes serious and waaay better then when I first joined, but none the less a learning, hobby forum for us meteo nuts.

With that said,

TDAT, although UTS tone may have not been appropriate his comments on "more beef" with the burger is appropriate. When you start off a thread, it should really be more informative than a picture of 1 model and 1 model run and a couple sentences. You have been around long enough to know that really isn't going to cut it. If you were in a hurry you should have commented so and said you would follow up with more details and maps when you have time later on. I am not going to regurg everything UTS said to include but for the furture we all need to start threads with substance. You know we don't model hug.

That's all I have to say in the matter. Lets move on and post meaningful stuff, not attack each other. It serves none of us when we tear each other down. Lets be cool cool.gif

This is fair, and I apologize for my part. Real life is crazy ATM, I'm runnig on waaaaay too much stress loo. Everyone knows I love UTS and his posts.
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Storms R us
post Jan 8 2018, 07:23 PM
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The models don't really show anything for this time period but the GFS is showing something again possibly the 22nd but again that is some time away.
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LUCC
post Jan 8 2018, 07:55 PM
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Was looking at 336hr on 12z GFS earlier today.... LMAO


This post has been edited by LUCC: Jan 8 2018, 07:55 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 9 2018, 05:13 AM
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I don't get why more people are not talking about this date span. It really hasn't gone away and in fact, to me, is trending much better looking. unsure.gif

We know the cold is coming back and the western ridge is looking really nice on most operational and ensemble guidance I've seen the past few days.



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NorEaster07
post Jan 9 2018, 05:28 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 8 2018, 06:09 AM) *
There is no rule that states a thread must have these elements in the OP...and as we are both long term posters here, and friends, I take exception to the elitism here. I kind of expect better...we've both been here a long time.


Nice to see all long term members and hope continues. Anyone can add "more" by simply replying to the original post anyway. Dont sweat it.


From WPC to Tuesday 16th

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1237 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2018

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 12 2018 - 12Z TUE JAN 16 2018

FOR NEXT MON/TUE, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS QUICKER TO MOVE THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD TO IDAHO THAN THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND
THE GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. ITS TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER, SO
OPTED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT IN THE GEFS MEAN FOR THE MON/TUE
FORECAST. THIS WOULD KEEP A PACIFIC FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL
TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL PRECEDE IT. TO THE EAST, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM FROM CANADA MAY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
EAST/SOUTH IN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
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MaineJay
post Jan 9 2018, 05:45 AM
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6-10 day analogs centered on 1/16

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...0day/analog.php


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Jan 9 2018, 05:46 AM
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GFS6z today. Clipper comes down and phases with a coastal


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Storms R us
post Jan 9 2018, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 9 2018, 05:46 AM) *
GFS6z today. Clipper comes down and phases with a coastal


Attached Image



Attached Image


Looks to be south and VA, Southern MD and maybe Southern DE but the system is off shore. There is a lot of rain moving in this weekend for at least MD/DE part of the Mid Atlantic and maybe any precip that does fall as snow may not stick because of the warmer weather this weekend 50's and 60's along with the rain prior to this system. Its a wait and see if any cold can freeze those areas so the precip can stick.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Jan 9 2018, 05:59 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 9 2018, 06:22 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 9 2018, 05:55 AM) *
Looks to be south and VA, Southern MD and maybe Southern DE but the system is off shore. There is a lot of rain moving in this weekend for at least MD/DE part of the Mid Atlantic and maybe any precip that does fall as snow may not stick because of the warmer weather this weekend 50's and 60's along with the rain prior to this system. Its a wait and see if any cold can freeze those areas so the precip can stick.

The cold behind the prior system just may well be cold enough to transition that system back to snow or frozen precip.

I would not have worries about whether there would be enough cold for this system which would have 2-4 more full days of said cold, to precipitate into.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 9 2018, 06:23 AM
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MP - Bucks Co PA
post Jan 9 2018, 07:57 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 9 2018, 06:22 AM) *
The cold behind the prior system just may well be cold enough to transition that system back to snow or frozen precip.

I would not have worries about whether there would be enough cold for this system which would have 2-4 more full days of said cold, to precipitate into.



Agreed UT, way too early for saying any snow won’t stick.
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