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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
okie333
post Nov 9 2011, 06:42 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 9 2011, 01:46 PM) *
The latest 12Z GFS ENS gives us two options for 24NOV11-25NOV11 period.

1. One member shows a cut off at hour 360 that mimics the 03OCT11-04OCT11 system.
2. Another member shows a cut off at hour 384 that mimics the SW system that hung back 07OCT11-09OCT11.


#2 is more in line with my thoughts.


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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2011, 07:00 AM
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QUOTE
Joe Bastardi
Current Alaska storm much like Nov 1974.. 3 weeks later monster eastern storm, ala 1950. MEI analog years!


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Niyologist
post Nov 10 2011, 07:22 AM
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I see this happening all right. The LRC says "A Okay" on that. I'm expecting it somewhere around the 2nd Week of December. What will lead up to that is an Eastern GLC, transferring its' energy to a Miller B around the Delmarva and that Miller B becomes a 50/50 Low and Cold Air Surges towards the Mason Dixon Line. That is all by the first week of December. That is one of the scenarios. There are more scenarios I have, but I'll hold off on them for now.
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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2011, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Nov 10 2011, 06:22 AM) *
I see this happening all right. The LRC says "A Okay" on that. I'm expecting it somewhere around the 2nd Week of December. What will lead up to that is an Eastern GLC, transferring its' energy to a Miller B around the Delmarva and that Miller B becomes a 50/50 Low and Cold Air Surges towards the Mason Dixon Line. That is all by the first week of December. That is one of the scenarios. There are more scenarios I have, but I'll hold off on them for now.


You are two weeks late in that scenario. On JB's Twitter, he has pictures of 25NOV50 and 02DEC74 surface plots.


Here is PSU's NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mapper.

However, with all the systems hitting the MW/OV, next weeks system could become the one you are talking about.


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Niyologist
post Nov 10 2011, 07:29 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 10 2011, 07:26 AM) *
You are two weeks late in that scenario. On JB's Twitter, he has pictures of 25NOV50 and 02DEC74 surface plots.


However, with all the systems hitting the MW/OV, next weeks system could become the one you are talking about.


I didn't take into account of the timing within 30 days of the Halloween Snowstorm (If that is the Signature Storm for Late November).
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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2011, 07:46 AM
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Here is the wiki for the 1950 storm and here is something from Detroit's WFO regarding the 1974 storm.


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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2011, 07:48 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Nov 10 2011, 06:29 AM) *
I didn't take into account of the timing within 30 days of the Halloween Snowstorm (If that is the Signature Storm for Late November).


The signature storm hasn't been established, but the cycle is being zeroed in on and the 25NOV11 storm is being discussed based on the cycle length.


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The Snowman
post Nov 10 2011, 07:57 AM
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Would it be feasible to compare NAO, AO, PNA, etc. indices from a time period to what is forecast?
Especially after hearing about the prospect of a Late Nov. storm, I was wondering if that is possible.


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jdrenken
post Nov 10 2011, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Nov 10 2011, 06:57 AM) *
Would it be feasible to compare NAO, AO, PNA, etc. indices from a time period to what is forecast?
Especially after hearing about the prospect of a Late Nov. storm, I was wondering if that is possible.


At the beginning of October, there was a +NAO to which it went negative roughly around the 7th.

Source 1 & Source 2

AO was the same.
Source. The ESRL does not provide AO indices.

PNA also the same.

Source 1 & Source 2

I believe you know where I am going with this. wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Nov 11 2011, 11:51 AM
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I am feeling 45 ish days today...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20111008.html

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt.


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jdrenken
post Nov 11 2011, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 11 2011, 10:51 AM) *
I am feeling 45 ish days today...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20111008.html

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt.


Even though I took off a few days, I'm still leaning in the late 40's.






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OSNW3
post Nov 11 2011, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 11 2011, 12:08 PM) *
Even though I took off a few days, I'm still leaning in the late 40's.


Either way we look at, I think we're on the same track. I also think we've done a great job following this thing through. Keeping our heads in the game, not letting any set backs get us down, pushing the envelope to find the next best comparison. This genesis cycle of the 2011-12 cycle may be engraved into our memory so finely that recognizing the next pattern might be automatic!

With that said, I am not going to be bold. I am still waiting until Turkey Day weekend to release my backyard snowfall forecast (Oshkosh winter forecast) based on the LRC. smile.gif


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grace
post Nov 11 2011, 01:29 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 10 2011, 06:26 AM) *
You are two weeks late in that scenario. On JB's Twitter, he has pictures of 25NOV50 and 02DEC74 surface plots.


Here is PSU's NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mapper.

However, with all the systems hitting the MW/OV, next weeks system could become the one you are talking about.


12z GFS Ensembles...FWIW a couple of them show E. Coast storm & one of them very strong storm on NOV 23 time frame...give or take a couple of days.



This post has been edited by grace: Nov 11 2011, 01:30 PM
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jdrenken
post Nov 11 2011, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 11 2011, 12:29 PM) *
12z GFS Ensembles...FWIW a couple of them show E. Coast storm & one of them very strong storm on NOV 23 time frame...give or take a couple of days.



They are actually an "interior" storm and not an EC storm. There are a few ppl that could consider this an Eastern GLC to boot.


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Regionrat
post Nov 11 2011, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 11 2011, 02:10 PM) *
Either way we look at, I think we're on the same track. I also think we've done a great job following this thing through. Keeping our heads in the game, not letting any set backs get us down, pushing the envelope to find the next best comparison. This genesis cycle of the 2011-12 cycle may be engraved into our memory so finely that recognizing the next pattern might be automatic!

With that said, I am not going to be bold. I am still waiting until Turkey Day weekend to release my backyard snowfall forecast (Oshkosh winter forecast) based on the LRC. smile.gif


I'm looking forward to it!


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Gilbertfly
post Nov 11 2011, 08:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 11 2011, 11:08 AM) *
Even though I took off a few days, I'm still leaning in the late 40's.


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 11 2011, 10:51 AM) *
I am feeling 45 ish days today...


The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt.


Awesome guys! great work! Going back a few weeks I was thinking 45-46 days. . .but feel that closer to 50 (49-ish) days is probably going to be the cycle set. . .

I feel the PV interaction is what is going to stretch it out from its transitional length of 45-ish days out to a length closer to 50.

Either way. . .with all of these systems and the crazy ridge rollercoaster. . .this is going to be an exciting season. . .an "all hands on deck" type season in reguards to the LRC (not to mention JD's other monitoring of the local threads). . .I look forward to reading everyones' contributions. And, please, don't be affraid to tell me if i'm way off on things. It's happened before! tongue.gif

Good work again, and I look forward to reading more!
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jdrenken
post Nov 11 2011, 08:35 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Nov 11 2011, 07:07 PM) *
Awesome guys! great work! Going back a few weeks I was thinking 45-46 days. . .but feel that closer to 50 (49-ish) days is probably going to be the cycle set. . .

I feel the PV interaction is what is going to stretch it out from its transitional length of 45-ish days out to a length closer to 50.

Either way. . .with all of these systems and the crazy ridge rollercoaster. . .this is going to be an exciting season. . .an "all hands on deck" type season in reguards to the LRC (not to mention JD's other monitoring of the local threads). . .I look forward to reading everyones' contributions. And, please, don't be affraid to tell me if i'm way off on things. It's happened before! tongue.gif

Good work again, and I look forward to reading more!


You were the one who kept last years thread going while I was playing moderator! For that, I am in deep gratitude and looking forward to the same analysis this year! wink.gif


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Gilbertfly
post Nov 11 2011, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 11 2011, 07:35 PM) *
You were the one who kept last years thread going while I was playing moderator! For that, I am in deep gratitude and looking forward to the same analysis this year! wink.gif


Thanks! not that i'm counting. . .but 12 more days until I get to shut down the landscaping company and dive into things here!

And, as i mentioned in an EE thread (however more people read this thread now! laugh.gif ) Thanks to all the men and women who have served our country! Happy Veteran's Day...God Bless!
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OSNW3
post Nov 11 2011, 11:37 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Nov 11 2011, 08:07 PM) *
Awesome guys! great work! Going back a few weeks I was thinking 45-46 days. . .but feel that closer to 50 (49-ish) days is probably going to be the cycle set. . .

I feel the PV interaction is what is going to stretch it out from its transitional length of 45-ish days out to a length closer to 50.

Either way. . .with all of these systems and the crazy ridge rollercoaster. . .this is going to be an exciting season. . .an "all hands on deck" type season in reguards to the LRC (not to mention JD's other monitoring of the local threads). . .I look forward to reading everyones' contributions. And, please, don't be affraid to tell me if i'm way off on things. It's happened before! tongue.gif

Good work again, and I look forward to reading more!


Gilbertfly, indeed we need to keep the analysis going. No better way to learn and stay on top. I like your ideas about the transitional length stretching out. In all of my research the duration always extended as the year rolled on.

Just a hour ago I updated my calender. I have had high hopes for the system that took place on Sep-29/30 in the upper Great Lakes this whole time. I am liking the scenario. My days are Sep-29/30 and Nov-15/16/17. I do not want to jump the gun though. I have to remain patient. smile.gif http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar1112.html

I am looking forward to the evolution of the this thread!





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OSNW3
post Nov 11 2011, 11:39 PM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Nov 11 2011, 04:14 PM) *
I'm looking forward to it!


Pinning down the cycle will be just like finding that treasure! I am also looking forward to it!


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