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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Today, 09:22 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


About 6” here so far, just some light snow at the moment..The 3k nam throws another 1” LE of high ratio lake enhancement/effect throughout the day, we’ll see, could be a big one..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2259115 · Replies: · Views: 2,247

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


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SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z,
with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z.

DISCUSSION...In association with a midlevel shortwave trough
approaching the upper OH Valley, a deformation snow band has been
developing eastward over Lake Erie. Low-midlevel warm
advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak
frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the
snow band across central NY through the early morning hours.
Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western
into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column
saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases
through the early morning hours. Peak snowfall rates should
approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at
locations within the expected corridor of the snow band.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2259031 · Replies: · Views: 2,247

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Perfect example of the lakes contribution to this synoptic system..Probably why we has a WSW and not LES warnings..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258908 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hi Rez models picking up the lake enhancement, could be a nasty little dry slot (rip off zone) from the finger lakes towards ksyr..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258848 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Wsw issued..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258717 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 06:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hybrid type system

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258649 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 05:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Good run for C/N Ny state on the Gfs..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258623 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 01:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Picked up a couple inches last night, expecting a couple more inches tonight..

Pic from buffalo game

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258511 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Both the Gfs and Canadian “trended” wetter at 12z imby, dropping 0.5”-0.6” LE respectively..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258484 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 10:57 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Winter storm watch issued for Oswego county, nws calling for 6”-8” tomorrow..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2257724 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 08:38 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
A consolidating sfc low will track near or just south of our
forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. This will place our forecast
area on the northern side of the deepening storm system where
frontogentic forcing will be the strongest. There may be some fairly
strong jet induced lift involved as well...as our region will be
near the exit region of a 130kt H25 jet. This should result in a
general accumulating snowfall across our region...one that could
worthy of winter weather advisories or even warnings. Stay tuned.

As the storm moves to the East coast...a phasing upper level pattern
will encourage the system to experience bombogenesis in the vcnty of
the New England Coast/Canadian maritimes. The ensuing strong
northwesterly flow in its wake will direct sub arctic across our
region...with H85 temps forecast to bottom out near -20c. This will
set the stage for another 36 hour period of accumulating lake snows
southeast of both lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night.



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2256728 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 08:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Still gonna take a few days to figure this one out..The Canadian brings the parent LP west of Lake Ontario before a late transfer off the coast of Maine, the euro makes it to the NY/PA border before transferring south of LI and lastly the Gfs which takes the low through NY state with a late transfer dropping near an inch LE imby..Obviously u know what one I’m rooting for haha But these are notoriously hard to figure out..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2256720 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 12:19 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Pretty Nice event on the 0z Gfs, probably should keep an eye on this one, interested to see what the euro shows..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2255802 · Replies: · Views: 31,622

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 30 2017, 08:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


I’m just glad to finally see this, maybe now we can see some white stuff..

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Kbuf


QUOTE
A significant and long lasting pattern change will arrive around the
middle of next week, with a much colder and more wintry pattern
taking shape


QUOTE
Looking farther ahead, the major pattern change that starts to take
shape Wednesday will mature by the end of next week. Long range
ensemble guidance is an excellent agreement with this pattern
change, and has only grown stronger with forecast blocking over the
past few days. The anomalously strong and eastward extending East
Asian Jet is in the process of weakening, and this will allow for a
strong amplification of the Pacific wave train. This will force the
downstream pattern across North America to strongly amplify, with a
strengthening ridge along the west coast and a deep longwave trough
carving out over central and eastern North America. At the same
time, blocking over Greenland will strengthen.

The increasing high latitude blocking will project on an
increasingly strong negative AO (Arctic Oscillation), with the
Greenland Block forcing a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).
The western ridge/eastern trough and amplification farther west in
the Pacific will force an increasingly positive PNA (Pacific North
American) pattern.

The coupling of a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern will result
in an extended period of below normal temperatures and active winter
weather for the Great Lakes starting late next week, and lasting for
an extended period of time. The first few days of the pattern change
late next week will be routine cold, but after about December 10th
there are increasing signals in long range ensemble guidance that
several blasts of true arctic air may be in play for the Great Lakes
and Northeast


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2254115 · Replies: · Views: 294,282

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 30 2017, 07:57 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Little nugget from kbuf

QUOTE
Obviously details are impossible to predict at this
time range, but the large scale pattern suggests the possibility of
numerous high impact lake effect snow events starting late next week
or next weekend, and continuing through the middle of December. Stay
tuned.


Get ready Kurt!!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2254114 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 06:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


So we finished with 4” in about hr and a half here (3” hr one) in Fulton..Winds switched abruptly from NW-West allowing the band to fly by like a Cold front lol Was hoping for a steady WNW which didn’t happen this time around..
Shows what kind of precip rate u can get closeer to the lake, many areas to my SE picked up 3”-4” overnight, took Fulton between 6am-730 am to record the same..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253329 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 08:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Rgem now showing double digits snowfall as well as the 3k nam..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253107 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 08:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Crazy band on the 4k nam , sits in place all night..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253104 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 11:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nws calling for 8.6” as of right now..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253052 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:05 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Haha if only, yes that’s the 3k nam showing near 1 1/2’ in Fulton lol Need to see what other SR models start to show as we move closer...

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253038 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 11:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Some nice streamers on the 3k nam

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252987 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 07:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


0z gfs continues with the WNW theme

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Latest NWS forecast

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252507 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Let’s see how long this last, right In Fulton’s wheelhouse..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252469 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Could be a nice one for the tug..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252390 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,283
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


And it starts

QUOTE
Much colder air will move into the region by Sunday. This may set the
stage for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario


QUOTE
Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252388 · Replies: · Views: 4,356

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