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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 02:08 AM


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And La Ninas are more likely to be longer-lived than El Nino.

1) El Ninos encourage more active thunderstorms than normal, which naturally stabilizes the atmosphere and ocean

2) El Nino is an entire reversal of the climatological pattern, whereas Nina is simply an enhancement. It's harder to maintain a reversal pattern than it is to maintain an enhancement.

That's why the record continuous length of an El Nino was this past El Nino event (19 months >0.5 ONI), and the record continuous length of La Nina is 29 months <-0.5 ONI.

If you want a long-lived or significant event, then there's ways you want the event to start. If it's a long-lived or significant Nino, then you need the event to start near the IDL because that's where some of the warmest waters in the world are and the WWBs will push it east.

If you want a long-lived or significant Nina, then you want it to start along the western coast of South America because that's where some of the coolest subtropical water is. Enhanced trade winds will do 2 things... push the cooler water west, and it will encourage upwelling which also keeps the SSTs cool
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248055 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 01:44 AM


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Gotta love GFS/GEFS. Look at the 14 day forecast, the 10 day, the 7 day, and then the most recent forecast. D'oh.


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248051 · Replies: · Views: 11,222

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:43 PM


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Anyone else read this and think about what that'd do to the SSTs? No? Dang, ok laugh.gif

QUOTE
North Korea could test hydrogen bomb over Pacific Ocean, says foreign minister

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/kim...ents/index.html
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247916 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:42 PM


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QUOTE(weatherboss @ Sep 21 2017, 02:57 PM) *
Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...

Not sure if there's a connection between strength and length. But I say that because of how it's forming along with the subsurface.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247915 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 12:05 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 20 2017, 01:07 PM) *
Brrrr lol

It is interesting to note though that the atmospheric easterlies forecasted next week are in link with the MJO right now. Could we have finally linked up with a la nina atmospheric state with oceanic? Seems so based off the 90 day hovmollers showing that MJO wave back in July matches another decent u wind anomaly over that region of the ocean and in fact traveled with the MJO wave.

[attachment=331104:u.anom.30.5S_5N.gif]
90 day 850 u wind anom

[attachment=331106:tm_order_2.gif]

If this is true we should still be seeing an increase in tropical activity as we head into october with at least a few more storms forming. MJO may help this as the next wave is looking to at least make conditions in the Atlantic possibly favorable for multiple small systems, we are starting to cut into the fuel from the islands westward except carribean and regions of the GOM. So it will be interesting to see where they develop.

As I said in my previous post, I dug through the old thread for some perspective. First let's compare the GFS zonal anomalies from this time last year to right now.




Compared to last year, I'd say there's been consistently stronger trades since the beginning of September this year. The trades came in 'waves' last year.

Another interesting thing is the weakened trades around 90E. That was either the result or cause of the strong -IOD in the summer that dissipated in the fall.

Last... look at the SSTAs this time last year compared to this year.



Pretty insane. I was joking that the east Pacific looked like a strong Nino, the west Pacific looked like a weak Nina. This year looks much more like a classically developing Nina (i.e., develops east-to-west). This definitely has better potential to be a multi-year Nina than the one last winter.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247791 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 09:20 PM


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CFS near this time last year...



CFS now



Got curious what the subsurface looked like this time last year. Couldn't find anything archived in the last thread except for this. The subsurface from this exact day last year. Bad quality.



Most recent data we've got is from 5 days ago


Here's a subsurface from early October. This was about a month before its peak.



As of right now, this Nina appears much more east-based.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247783 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 09:07 PM


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QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 20 2017, 03:04 PM) *
...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

[attachment=331115:isawvcnepac.gif]

rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?


There's at least growing interest in the idea that the unusually sharp SST gradient in the north Pacific led to the very strong/wet Pacific jet last winter. Unfortunately that's really not something we can forecast very well. I think if that comes back this winter, it'll do more damage than it'll do good... which is weird to say about California after that insane drought.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247781 · Replies: · Views: 137,638

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 12:24 AM


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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 20 2017, 01:22 AM) *
Maria is down to 120 kt . Ewrc has took it down a lot, now a moderate cat 4.

Probably temporary because ERC is going on right now. Hopefully it doesn't re-intensify before landfall.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247575 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 12:20 AM


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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 20 2017, 01:07 AM) *
Yes sir. It's likewise the same physics that creates ERC. Between each rainband is the sinking air expelled from the line of storms. Hurricanes are really just lines of thunderstorms rotating around a central low pressure. So just like lines of thunderstorms with cold fronts, the same physics (to an extent) holds true with hurricanes. Air rises, allowing the formation of the storms, but there has to be an expelling of this air. This is where the lack of rain and dry slots are formed as the sinking air is in between the bands.

Thanks! Awesome explanation. Had a feeling it had something to do with that, but could also see how the beam could skip over some shallower convection but see convection behind it (i.e., convection is stronger thus taller)
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247571 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 12:09 AM


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SST anomalies of up to -4C (-7.2F) are showing up in the eastern tropical Pacific. That means there's ~18C (64.4F) water sitting on the equator. That's about the same temp as the water off the shore of Massachusetts.


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247570 · Replies: · Views: 54,206

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 11:55 PM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:41 AM) *
I don't think that's the case because then it shouldn't be able to see past those dry slots either.

I think hurricanes are supposed to have dry slots between bands... something to do with local high pressures between the bands. Small scale Physics.


Actually, I'm not sure. it is possible the radar isn't seeing it. Here's a 2D cross section that makes the beam ascent apparent. Red line is beam ascent... white line shows equal height AGL. All I can conclude is it might be missing rain... though there's a relative minimum there for sure.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247567 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 11:41 PM


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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:21 AM) *
Are those dry slots or is the San Juan radar not able to see it?

I don't think that's the case because then it shouldn't be able to see past those dry slots either.

I think hurricanes are supposed to have dry slots between bands... something to do with local high pressures between the bands. Small scale Physics.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247566 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 11:20 PM


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Playing around with GR2...

Taking a 3D slice of the eye and eyewall...

Isolating heavy rain (dark green and yellow)
Attached Image


Including everything... look at the detail of the cloud tops and the dry slots near the eye

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247561 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 11:14 PM


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QUOTE
While most are transfixed on #Jose's influence for #Maria, an ULL in the Gulf may get close to her by D4 & shouldn't be ignored wrt steering


https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/910353621975470085
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247553 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 11:06 PM


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Amazing to see the 4 big parameters on a hurricane this intense

Bottom left is correlation coefficient (how uniform hydrometeors are in a beam sample; red being uniform, yellow being not so much)
Bottom right is differential reflectivity (measure of how spherical hydrometeors are; positive is big rain drops, negative is hail, near 0 is spherical "normal" raindrops)
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247550 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 09:54 PM


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And with that, now expected to make landfall as a Cat 5

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247530 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 09:41 PM


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Reminds me of a winter severe weather event with the extreme directional shear

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247521 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 09:09 PM


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QUOTE(risingriver @ Sep 19 2017, 10:02 PM) *
Anyone with more experience on this one to make the call that an eye wall replacement cycle is definitely underway?


Yeah, looks like it's at the latter stage of ERC because now there's only a single eye wall and it's becoming concentric. The actual ERC happened at about 14z... there was a new eye wall forming around the eye wall. Now it's trying to get itself back together.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247513 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 08:51 PM


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QUOTE(sak @ Sep 19 2017, 09:45 PM) *
I know there is hurricane fatigue, but on Accuweather? I'm surprised with a category 5 - the most intense hurricane of the year! -- bearing down on Puerto Rico and the USVI that this place is not buzzing more than it is.

The jogs are crucial at this point for St. Croix. Jogs north are disastrous for St. Croix, jogs west could spare the island. Jogs north could really help out parts of Puerto Rico though, particularly the southwest end of the island.

If it's not impacting the US, there's not much interest. It's sad but true about pretty much everything, and the US isn't the only one guilty of it.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247505 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 08:42 PM


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VBV has kept the severe weather relatively tame today

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247502 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 07:03 PM


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Starting to get some more discrete supercells in SD

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247480 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 01:38 PM


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HRRR now showing mostly linear storm mode
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247333 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 10:11 AM


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Not as textbook, but another one in Minneapolis (far eastern edge of slight risk)

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247291 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 10:09 AM


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Wow! Loaded gun sounding in NE SD
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247290 · Replies: · Views: 623

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 10:00 AM


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HRRR suggesting this is gonna be a big severe weather day... SPC has 10% tornado, 30% hatched wind, 30% hatched hail for most of the eastern Dakotas


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247288 · Replies: · Views: 623

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