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> June 28 - July 4 Midwest/Plains/OV/GL Severe Weather
joseph507123
post Jun 28 2018, 01:32 AM
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Surprisingly no topic yet. Today looks really active with all threats. Tomorrow looks mild and Saturday looks to pick up.
Attached Image

QUOTE
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern
Plains Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The primary threat
will be damaging winds, but large hail and perhaps a couple
tornadoes will be possible as well. Elsewhere, isolated
strong/severe storms will be possible from the mid Mississippi
Valley to the Southeast, as well as over parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
Pertinent features for this convective outlook will generally be
situated around the periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge
anchored over the central Plains. Although 500mb height tendencies
will be neutral/slightly positive across the northern Plains
initially (owing to lower-level warm advection), heights will
gradually fall through Thursday night with the approach of an
upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, a compact
impulse will cross the Hudson Valley and southern/central New
England through the afternoon. Meanwhile, a series of
low-amplitude/convectively augmented impulses will drop southeast
from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast through the period.

...Northern Plains...
In response to continued warm advection over Montana and the
Dakotas, a warm front will lift northward towards the Canadian
border through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to
accelerate southeast over central Montana during the evening hours.
Between these two surface features, southeasterly flow will
transport mid/upper 60s dew points over the western Dakotas and into
eastern Montana. Closer to the trough / cooler temperatures aloft,
convection should initiate near/ahead of the cold front over the
higher terrain of Montana. Here, steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong effective shear will likely yield a few supercells and/or
bowing segments, capable of large hail and damaging winds during the
afternoon and evening.


Saturday NAM. SPC forecast will tell us more.


This post has been edited by joseph507123: Jul 2 2018, 05:01 AM


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 13

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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snowlover2
post Jun 28 2018, 12:14 PM
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There's a moderate risk area for much of the south half of ND today.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 28 2018, 04:48 PM
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Looks like a derecho or at least a strong bow echo has evolved from this mornings storms across Nebraska. Storms are moving almost due south along the Mississippi River along a very sultry frontal boundary where multiple observation stations are reporting dew points >80F! That's not something I see very often ... thankfully!


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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snowlover2
post Jun 28 2018, 06:39 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 28 2018, 05:48 PM) *
Looks like a derecho or at least a strong bow echo has evolved from this mornings storms across Nebraska. Storms are moving almost due south along the Mississippi River along a very sultry frontal boundary where multiple observation stations are reporting dew points >80F! That's not something I see very often ... thankfully!

Pretty impressive for something that I don't think any model picked up on.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 28 2018, 06:52 PM
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Beautiful MCS in S IL too.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 28 2018, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 28 2018, 07:39 PM) *
Pretty impressive for something that I don't think any model picked up on.

I seem to remember a couple isolated hi-res runs showing a complex moving southeast along the boundary, but definitely not a recent run or showing something as intense as what's currently ongoing.

The joy of minor disturbances rippling through massive CAPE values smile.gif

This is the kind of event that's going to make the upcoming heat and humidity that much worse.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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grace
post Jun 28 2018, 07:35 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 28 2018, 04:48 PM) *
Looks like a derecho or at least a strong bow echo has evolved from this mornings storms across Nebraska. Storms are moving almost due south along the Mississippi River along a very sultry frontal boundary where multiple observation stations are reporting dew points >80F! That's not something I see very often ... thankfully!



I'm right in the path smile.gif
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grace
post Jun 28 2018, 08:05 PM
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Shelf cloud moving into Paducah is nuts! On WPSD right now. I'm 20 miles south
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 28 2018, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 28 2018, 08:35 PM) *
I'm right in the path smile.gif

Enjoy and stay safe


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Kazairl
post Jun 28 2018, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 28 2018, 08:05 PM) *
Shelf cloud moving into Paducah is nuts! On WPSD right now. I'm 20 miles south

I got a couple of pictures with my phone. First one is at 8:07 PM. Second one is 8:15 PM after the shelf cloud had gone overhead. NWS reported the storm moving in at 70 mph ohmy.gif This was the one that was near St. Louis earlier this afternoon.
We got a severe thunderstorm warning, but just got a little wind and some rain, nothing that special.

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This post has been edited by Kazairl: Jun 28 2018, 08:49 PM
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joseph507123
post Jun 28 2018, 08:55 PM
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Roger Hill caught a nice tornado in Montana.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 13

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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joseph507123
post Jun 28 2018, 09:12 PM
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Roger Hill has a wedge forming. wow
Attached Image


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 13

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 28 2018, 09:15 PM
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Local met shared this pic on facebook.cannot confirm nor deny its legitimacy.

Seems a bit lucky to capture, yet you would have to be lucky to capture. I don't know.

Cool pic none the less.....


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grace
post Jun 28 2018, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(Kazairl @ Jun 28 2018, 08:47 PM) *
I got a couple of pictures with my phone. First one is at 8:07 PM. Second one is 8:15 PM after the shelf cloud had gone overhead. NWS reported the storm moving in at 70 mph ohmy.gif This was the one that was near St. Louis earlier this afternoon.
We got a severe thunderstorm warning, but just got a little wind and some rain, nothing that special.

Attached Image

Attached Image



Cool pics! I took a couple but it was just too dark to do it justice. Very high winds but it actually had slowed down a bit by the time it hit me...still managed I'm sure 50mph winds.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 28 2018, 11:19 PM
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Didn't see that huge swath of wind reports coming. Just a reminder that this kind of thing can happen with relatively short notice... especially with this kind of pattern



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 29 2018, 12:08 AM
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If North Dakota was more populated I'd say we have a shot of reaching 1000 severe reports today once all damage is accounted for. Currently at 606 with an MCS ongoing in the moderate risk.

The moderate risk is for 36,700 square miles (49.7% of the state) in which 225,000 people live (29.8% of the state)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 29 2018, 09:12 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 29 2018, 12:19 AM) *
Didn't see that huge swath of wind reports coming. Just a reminder that this kind of thing can happen with relatively short notice... especially with this kind of pattern


It's amazing to me that the SPC didn't upgrade the convective outlooks associated with that MCS.

It may have been unexpected 24 hours in advance, but once it got going early in the afternoon there should have been an upgrade to at least a moderate risk of wind damage.

Instead, this was issued at 3 PM ...
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ColoradoChinook
post Jun 29 2018, 05:34 PM
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do supercells get any extra credit for being purple? Note: this is north of Sturgis, at the edge of the Black Hills.



This post has been edited by ColoradoChinook: Jun 29 2018, 05:35 PM
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snowlover2
post Jun 29 2018, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 29 2018, 12:19 AM) *
Didn't see that huge swath of wind reports coming. Just a reminder that this kind of thing can happen with relatively short notice... especially with this kind of pattern


Would have been ironic if yesterday's event happened today. Today is the anniversary of the 2012 Derecho which I believe is in your sig.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 29 2018, 10:40 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 29 2018, 09:06 PM) *
Would have been ironic if yesterday's event happened today. Today is the anniversary of the 2012 Derecho which I believe is in your sig.

Yes it is... 6/29/12 started as what we now call a marginal risk for most of the areas impacted. The Mid-Atlantic didn't even have a shot at severe storms according to that outlook. Hoping we get a surprise event this summer.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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