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> Feb 4-5th S.ONT Storm Potential
markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 06:49 PM
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Various models have this time frame as something to watch,the 18Z GFS has a wave of snow on the 4th & a follow up storm on the 5th not all models have the same look but definitely something to keep an eye on.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png ( 188.83K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png ( 195.65K ) Number of downloads: 1


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travis3000
post Jan 31 2018, 07:21 PM
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Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_31_at_7.20.58_PM.jpg ( 572.81K ) Number of downloads: 15


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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winter48
post Jan 31 2018, 07:23 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 31 2018, 07:21 PM) *
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_31_at_7.20.58_PM.jpg ( 572.81K ) Number of downloads: 15

A North west shift would be nice! So much nice green right below us!

This post has been edited by winter48: Jan 31 2018, 07:24 PM
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dsichewski
post Jan 31 2018, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 31 2018, 08:21 PM) *
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_31_at_7.20.58_PM.jpg ( 572.81K ) Number of downloads: 15


While I'll take 6" I'd much rather a northern trend to get into those 16-22" numbers lol what one can wish lol
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 07:29 PM
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Hereís the final frame of the 18z NAM FWIW.

Attached File  180D489D_F35F_43A2_8919_64A276C61573.png ( 192.64K ) Number of downloads: 2
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markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Jan 31 2018, 07:23 PM) *
A North west shift would be nice! So much nice green right below us!


The 18Z GFS was a slight North west shift from its 12 z run,there is a good chance this continues over the coming days as the coldest air wants to stay in the west & not push our storm track to far east.
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winter48
post Jan 31 2018, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 31 2018, 07:42 PM) *
The 18Z GFS was a slight North west shift from its 12 z run,there is a good chance this continues over the coming days as the coldest air wants to stay in the west & not push our storm track to far east.

I think it could be a good one if the trend does continue just enough. smile.gif

This post has been edited by winter48: Jan 31 2018, 08:47 PM
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markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 10:57 PM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Jan 31 2018, 08:46 PM) *
I think it could be a good one if the trend does continue just enough. smile.gif


12 Z GEFS has some nice hits

Attached File  1.gif ( 97.75K ) Number of downloads: 9
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 11:07 PM
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Even better run on the 00z GFS. Hereís the total snowfall out to hour 120. Ratios included on the IWM maps.

Attached File  E5CD141A_1E1F_4C27_A7CF_C70AC70E7032.gif ( 66.84K ) Number of downloads: 14
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markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:07 PM) *
Even better run on the 00z GFS. Hereís the total snowfall out to hour 120. Ratios included on the IWM maps.

Attached File  E5CD141A_1E1F_4C27_A7CF_C70AC70E7032.gif ( 66.84K ) Number of downloads: 14


Wow i was checking the 0z gfs and even though the low position was better the snow totals didnt look that good!
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 11:14 PM
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I donít know what it is but there have been a couple times this year where tropical tidbits snow maps have been off. Itís strange.
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markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:14 PM) *
I donít know what it is but there have been a couple times this year where tropical tidbits snow maps have been off. Itís strange.


With 10:1 ratios the oz gfs had around 4 inches in the gta on TT
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 11:22 PM
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Not to get too far ahead of ourself but the storm after looks pretty darn good too this run.

Attached File  D2FDBA20_45D7_4006_B427_FF14FE59F1CD.png ( 195.8K ) Number of downloads: 4
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 11:26 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:21 PM) *
With 10:1 ratios the oz gfs had around 4 inches in the gta on TT

Yeah, if you look at the total positive snow depth change on TT it does show totals closer to IWM. Not sure if when you change to that setting on TT if it includes ratios as well and thatís why itís higher.
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markj138
post Jan 31 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:26 PM) *
Yeah, if you look at the total positive snow depth change on TT it does show totals closer to IWM. Not sure if when you change to that setting on TT if it includes ratios as well and thatís why itís higher.


I think you are right,either way this storm & the one right after are going to keep us on our heels

here is the CMC out to 120

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_20.png ( 149.54K ) Number of downloads: 2
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 11:41 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:32 PM) *
either way this storm & the one right after are going to keep us on our heels


Definitely. Iím excited to see how thing unfold.
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Jeremy404
post Jan 31 2018, 11:55 PM
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Everyone go wash their cars. It's a sure way for us to get snow these days. laugh.gif

Happily washed mine during the past weekend and then we got that surprise 5-10cm on Monday rolleyes.gif
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travis3000
post Feb 1 2018, 11:14 AM
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Here's the 12z NAM


Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_01_at_11.10.53_AM.jpg ( 555.52K ) Number of downloads: 9


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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markj138
post Feb 1 2018, 01:34 PM
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Here is both the 12z cmc & gfs which includes the snow on the 4th & 5th
both systems look pretty weak today,10cm seems a good bet around the GTHA

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_17.png ( 149K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnowd_neus_18.png ( 168.7K ) Number of downloads: 3


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markj138
post Feb 1 2018, 01:40 PM
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12z gfs from iwm with ratio

Attached File  post_16_1517500901_thumb.jpg ( 55.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


12 z gefs

Attached File  1.gif ( 124.31K ) Number of downloads: 3
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