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> Feb 9-11th Eastern Canada System, Short range likely multi wave event
Lake effect
post Feb 6 2018, 06:39 PM
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This has been in the models for a few days. No agreement as to exact intensity and track just yet, but all are showing something, especially overnight Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is a long drawn out light snow event, the Euro has two waves, with the second one very productive for north of the 401, and the CMC has a similar look.

GFS:

1st wave

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png ( 182.07K ) Number of downloads: 2


2nd wave

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 187.53K ) Number of downloads: 1


CMC

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 174.89K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM not really into range yet, but showing it lurking.

Attached File  nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 190.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 8 2018, 03:38 PM
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humidex
post Feb 6 2018, 08:33 PM
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Is this a clipper event that links up with Energy and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico? Feb is turning into an overachieving month around here! cool.gif
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 07:52 AM
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GFS going SE, CMC has gone SE too, but to the GTAs benefit, although not as strong as the previous runs.

Attached File  gem_asnow24_us_14.png ( 81.36K ) Number of downloads: 5
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 08:10 AM
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The NAM drops 6 inches from Windsor to Hamilton, probably 4 in the GTA, then 6 from Kingston through Montreal...from the first wave on Friday night into Saturday. The second wave is out of range, but seems to be poised nicely. Really curious to see the Euro, as the GFS is the outlier at the moment.

Attached File  nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png ( 194.55K ) Number of downloads: 0
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 08:16 AM
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ECM is a bit weaker than what it was showing yesterday. More inline with the GFS. This system has a odd look on some models. I believe models aren’t handling the multiple waves very well. Here’s the euro.

Attached File  37DC02A7_97D9_4D8B_A36E_C35D0C5B9AFD.png ( 134.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  8FA127C5_0EBF_4BD7_A59D_C7ABD670A071.png ( 126.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  107129F9_9993_4F75_AD0E_14D961C7D1F6.png ( 138.48K ) Number of downloads: 0
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 08:20 AM
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Here’s the snow map as well. Remember this is 10:1 ratios and includes the snow from today’s system.

Attached File  97104ACC_8630_4816_B1A5_86E8EDEAE6F4.png ( 164.11K ) Number of downloads: 5
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 09:50 AM
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Cheers SB. The 00z tonight should give us a better idea. Looks like it is further SE than yesterday's run...quel surprise! Was hoping that Barrie might get at least one decent storm, all the action has gone south of us this year.
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 09:57 AM
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NAM 12z adds about 6-8 inches from the first wave for the 401 corrridor, with the second wave poised to follow the same track. Could be a great weekend for London, Hamilton and the GTA. (The map below is total snow, but there was only 2 inches showing before Friday for Ontario)

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_26.png ( 149.23K ) Number of downloads: 3


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MrMusic
post Feb 7 2018, 10:21 AM
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24-hour snowfall by Sat late morning on the NAM




GEM...it's a long duration event so I'm adding two 24-hour snowfall images...add them up for the total:

24-hour snow by 1pm Saturday


24-hour snow by 1pm Sunday


About 15cm at 10:1 ratios for the GTHA


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 11:11 AM
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12z GFS totals for all waves.

Attached File  DA0397FD_6654_4FF2_97A9_0A074F9029DC.png ( 135.04K ) Number of downloads: 11
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 11:19 AM
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This is looking like a baroclinic type event where the system travels along the boundary layer in multiple waves with each one basically taking the same path. Here’s the 500mb map from the 12z GFS showing the orientation from SW to NE.

Attached File  DE2CE5EB_0ADA_4B22_B347_81625A8527BD.png ( 144.06K ) Number of downloads: 0
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 11:22 AM
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12z GEM. Looks good.

Attached File  F5C6C594_1EEE_4A52_A103_7EDD7A0682AE.png ( 100.15K ) Number of downloads: 9
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winter48
post Feb 7 2018, 11:24 AM
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I heard the NAM looks good, too.
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travis3000
post Feb 7 2018, 12:10 PM
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I like the GEM , showing 10-15cm here. I will take it !


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 7 2018, 12:27 PM
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This system looks awesome! Would love to add another 10-15cm to our snowpack tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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BIG Snowstorms
post Feb 7 2018, 12:48 PM
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how much does it show for Hamilton?
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 7 2018, 12:10 PM) *
I like the GEM , showing 10-15cm here. I will take it !


It wouldn't take much of a nudge NW to make this a great storm for us, but then we may battling the SW wind Nottawasaga valley thing again if that happened.
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 12:58 PM
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To pull out just the snow for this event, here is the GFS total for the whole event:


Attached File  USA_ASNOW72_sfc_114.gif ( 51.77K ) Number of downloads: 11


NAM for the first wave only:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_072.gif ( 38.41K ) Number of downloads: 9
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2018, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Feb 7 2018, 12:48 PM) *
how much does it show for Hamilton?


Hamilton, Brantford to London could see 20-25cms or locally more with Lake enhacement from this. In the bullseye at the moment.
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plowguy
post Feb 7 2018, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 7 2018, 11:11 AM) *
12z GFS totals for all waves.

Attached File  DA0397FD_6654_4FF2_97A9_0A074F9029DC.png ( 135.04K ) Number of downloads: 11

If this includes today we already have that!
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