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> Feb 20-22 Ice Potential MW/GL/OV, Possibility: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
nkovatch85
post Feb 19 2018, 05:20 PM
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I haven't seen a thread strictly for the wintry side of this storm. Potential is there for some significant icing after the front moves through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning across Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Still quite a bit of question as to how quickly the cold air swings in before the precip ends and how these warm temps affect ice accretion. GFS doesn't show anything, however, Euro, NAM and Canadian show potential for a quarter inch or more in some spots. (I don't have access to Euro map but a friend of mine said the 12z run showed 1/4 to 1/3 inch of ice accumulation for Central Illinois). Maps and ILX discussion below.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Our initial precipitation event will persist into Tuesday
night/early Wednesday, with a gradual ending from northwest to
southeast. As surface temperatures fall below freezing across most
of the area later Tuesday night into early Wednesday, any
lingering precipitation will change to a wintry mix of freezing
rain, sleet and possibly snow. However, considerable model spread
still exists with how quickly the surface temperatures go below
freezing and/or how quickly the precipitation ends behind the
front. This spread results in freezing rain/ice potential from
none to a couple tenths of an inch or more. Decided to go with a
lower-end ice potential for now toward the stronger model
consensus. Ice totals will also be diminished due to the warm
surface temperatures from today`s & tomorrow`s heating. However,
the ice threat will need to be monitored closely.


This post has been edited by nkovatch85: Feb 20 2018, 02:15 PM
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Juniorrr
post Feb 19 2018, 06:18 PM
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NAM has been super aggressive with icing. 1" of ice in MO/ IL mellow.gif And then the GFS has nothing laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Feb 19 2018, 06:24 PM
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Solution Man
post Feb 19 2018, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 19 2018, 07:18 PM) *
NAM has been super aggressive with icing. 1" of ice in MO/ IL mellow.gif And then the GFS has nothing laugh.gif

Trust nothing
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nkovatch85
post Feb 19 2018, 06:27 PM
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LSX posted this graphic. I'm willing to bet this ends up being pretty close to reality. I've never seen an inch of ice accretion and hope I never will!
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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2018, 07:08 PM
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Again...let us stress that even small amounts of ice can be more impactful than say .5" of freezing rain.


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nkovatch85
post Feb 19 2018, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 19 2018, 06:08 PM) *
Again...let us stress that even small amounts of ice can be more impactful than say .5" of freezing rain.


So true. Some of the most dangerous road conditions Iíve ever traveled came with less than 1/10 of an inch of ice.


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Snow____
post Feb 19 2018, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(nkovatch85 @ Feb 19 2018, 07:12 PM) *
So true. Some of the most dangerous road conditions Iíve ever traveled came with less than 1/10 of an inch of ice.

Very true. The night of the Super Bowl there was a thin layer of ice over the road and they were terrible.
But when we got .20 of ice a couple days after the roads were ok. There was so much build up of ice on the roads that it actually was similar to sleet in a way. Became very grainy and had decent traction.


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nkovatch85
post Feb 20 2018, 12:05 AM
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GFS starting to show some icing IMBY. NAM 3k becoming a little more realistic with totals. The 12k is still showing ridiculous, huge amounts. Will post GFS and 3k.
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joseph507123
post Feb 20 2018, 03:26 AM
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Had a tiny bit of freezing rain earlier. Now snow and graupel mix.


This post has been edited by joseph507123: Feb 20 2018, 11:48 PM


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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 13

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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StormChazer
post Feb 20 2018, 01:42 PM
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NWS in Springfield issuing Winter weather advisories further to the southeast, I'd expect Tulsa will move their advisories further to the east as well, may even see an ice storm warning out to the NW.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 20 2018, 02:04 PM
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Looks like a pretty decent ice threat for some on the morning of the 22nd as well. Should probably change the thread dates to reflect that.
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nkovatch85
post Feb 20 2018, 02:04 PM
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ILX keeping totals down in their forecast for tonight. Still, with wet roads already it'll slickin up quick!
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nkovatch85
post Feb 20 2018, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Feb 20 2018, 01:04 PM) *
Looks like a pretty decent ice threat for some on the morning of the 22nd as well. Should probably change the thread dates to reflect that.


Will do!


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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 20 2018, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(nkovatch85 @ Feb 20 2018, 02:05 PM) *
Will do!


Thanks!
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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 20 2018, 03:27 PM
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Latest NAM through Thurs. morning...yikes


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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 20 2018, 03:50 PM
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Thinking a lot of people will be caught off guard around here on Thurs. morning due to the spring-like warmth these past couple days. Worst timing possible for icing if something like this verifies:


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nkovatch85
post Feb 20 2018, 04:21 PM
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WWA up for ILX and LSX

QUOTE
...ICY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

.Temperatures will fall below freezing in the wake of a cold
front. However, it will remain warmer aloft, which will result in
a period of freezing rain and sleet.

ILZ038-042>045-048-051>055-061-210500-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0008.180221T0600Z-180221T1200Z/
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Menard-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Shelby-
Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton,
Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Petersburg, Springfield,
Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, and Shelbyville
309 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow
accumulations of up to one half inch, and ice accumulations of
up to one tenth of an inch, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Illinois.

* WHEN...Rain is expected to change to freezing rain after
midnight near the I-55 corridor, and toward 3 am in areas around
Decatur and Champaign. Much of the precipitation will end before
sunrise.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.


QUOTE
ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>051-211045-
/O.NEW.KLSX.WW.Y.0009.180221T0000Z-180221T1200Z/
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Boone MO-Brown IL-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike IL-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-
Including the cities of Bowling Green, Columbia, Fulton,
Hannibal, Jefferson City, Mexico, Mount Sterling, Pittsfield,
and Quincy
250 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation is expected. Ice accumulation from
freezing rain of up to one tenth of an inch is expected with
little in any snow accumulation is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.



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StormChazer
post Feb 20 2018, 04:42 PM
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Latest GFS is throwing out some dangerous freezing rain by midnight tonight throughout all of Tulsa and SW Missouri.
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StormChazer
post Feb 20 2018, 04:50 PM
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HRRR showing a very similar solution...
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nkovatch85
post Feb 20 2018, 04:53 PM
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WPC still paints a large area under a moderate risk for .25 inch of ice accumulation. HRRR showing some decent pockets of heavier ice. 3k NAM looks realistic. Also including RAP.


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