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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(snowcrazed71 @ Dec 11 2017, 07:41 PM) *
If I may. You were kind of brutal on PSU for starting this date. If you read what he said.... He mentioned that one of the events from now through the weekend have the POTENTIAL to become a Nor' Easter. I know your the moderator, but, in being that... I would think you wouldn't rip someone apart. I do beleive in constructive criticism, not attacking. Yes, he might be over zealous, but, I think he means well. ☺


Obviously you haven't had to moderate him for 8 years. Also...

QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 10 2017, 05:01 PM) *
Folks, we are in a very fast flow, amped flow, but rather fast flow so we have many northern stream systems coming through the flow, which one amps the flow and becomes a nor'easter, could be Friday through Saturday of this week/weekend time frame. Stay tuned!


As you can see... POTENTIAL is NOT a word he used.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258997 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Dec 11 2017, 06:59 PM) *
Okay but why?


The clipper acts like a "kicker" rather than a "phaser". The PNA ridge on the 15th goes flat so you are looking at zonal flow taking over to quickly. It's not even a true clipper as it's another Saskatchewan Screamer.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258983 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 11 2017, 05:59 PM) *
Is it me , or does this storm need to hire a new agent laugh.gif


It wasn't started by PSU so that's a plus.

OBS thread opened.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2258971
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258976 · Replies: · Views: 31,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 11 2017, 03:00 PM) *
CTP model regurgitation - er, I mean disco (tosses a bone Clapper's way)


How about the EPS? wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258906 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NwsScott @ Dec 11 2017, 02:35 PM) *


The jma/ gfs op are the closest to getting some snow into our are (NYC). They just don't phase it strongly enough. I could see it trending positive given the 4 day lead time and lack of sampling, but it would have to come in the next 2 model cycles.


It's NOT going to trend positive enough to influence. Going to come back to a favorite saying of mine...

QUOTE
You can't push a storm to do what YOU want it to do!


The very first post was calling for a nor'easter with NOTHING to back it up and now we are relying on one ENS member for verification? Come on now... starting to sound like 33&rain!!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258893 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


This is NOT going to happen as portrayed by other forum members!

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258890 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rvincent @ Dec 11 2017, 10:40 AM) *
It's a very active pattern for sure and if the storm comes a little north and west we will be in business... Our snowpack is going to be reduced to rubble tomorrow with the rain.... at least in the Hingham, MA and Weymouth, MA region.

Anybody know what the Euro showed?




  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258877 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


I'm still waiting for the KU event that members of 33&rain were calling for... especially earthlight, or John Homenuk.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258871 · Replies: · Views: 294,014

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 11 2017, 01:33 PM) *
boring. no activity. close the thread.


I'm sure snowball would agree. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258866 · Replies: · Views: 8,064

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Keep in mind we need to specify if this is all regions or just a specific one.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258831 · Replies: · Views: 4,870

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Dec 11 2017, 10:24 AM) *
****Bumping this thread****

Based on my super amateur eyes, it looks like the PV is definitely being shoved off the pole over the next 10 days. However; its on the wrong side of the world it seems. There looks to be a huge center of above normal heights migrating east from the Beaufort Sea/northern Yukon area toward western Greenland. This results in the entire flow around the pole being completely cut off from North America.

So my question for this board... what are the optimal positions for the above and below normal heights to potentially drive North America cold?

I've done my obligatory search on Google to try and learn, but couldnt seem to find anything that was clear on the aforementioned question. Appreciate any insights!


The optimal thing that you want is a split to happen with lower heights over Hudson Bay or a displaced PV over NA and not Siberia or Europe.

That's what got soo many people who were calling for 1977, 2010, or 2014 cold in trouble. Despite the overwhelming evidence that the PV was favoring Siberia or Europe they still pushed the agenda.

Seasonal cold is not the work of a displaced PV.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258817 · Replies: · Views: 2,602

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Lingering effects in Northern New England has me leaving the 14th as the date.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258811 · Replies: · Views: 31,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


WPC look...

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258800 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 11 2017, 05:13 AM) *
Yeah.

BKB, as its acronym, is BLACK KNIGHT B - and the Black Knight is indeed from Holy Grail reference.

I blame millennials - LOL (j/k)


Going further...it was because forum member referenced a GFS run loosing the storm & my response was the scene where King Arthur is kicked in the head by the Black Knight. Good times, good times!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258758 · Replies: · Views: 8,064

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 10:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 10 2017, 05:01 PM) *
Folks, we are in a very fast flow, amped flow, but rather fast flow so we have many northern stream systems coming through the flow, which one amps the flow and becomes a nor'easter, could be Friday through Saturday of this week/weekend time frame. Stay tuned!


Your first thread and you are already calling for a nor'easter? Stop while you are ahead.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258704 · Replies: · Views: 3,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 08:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 10 2017, 04:58 PM) *
Coldest air mass of the season is for Friday, so that would make sense for the best chance at heavy snow given there is a clipper present, I see this is my first post this winter.


Oh joy.... rolleyes.gif

Hopefully your future post this year will not call for a major storm with each "blip" of the models.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258669 · Replies: · Views: 8,620

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 07:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Dec 10 2017, 04:06 PM) *
Not really. Missouri & Arkansas have been snowless. Except for a few flurries.


Incorrect. The map clearly shows that both AR & MO had at least an inch in spots.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258661 · Replies: · Views: 294,014

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 01:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 10 2017, 09:21 AM) *
12/10 ESRL teleconnections forecast:


One key is the PNA isn't as stout pre-xmas as what we are coming out of. More zonal than meridional.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258512 · Replies: · Views: 294,014

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 12:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 10 2017, 09:05 AM) *
Yep .. should be Dec 12-13 .. but at least the "long range" was dropped. Begger's can't be chooser's I guess smile.gif


Dropped because I had to revise. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258509 · Replies: · Views: 31,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 11:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Continuing about the lack of RAOB's from Alaska...

QUOTE
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0205Z SUN DEC 10 2017

The 00Z NAM started and is on schedule...


00Z Raob Recap..

70133/OTZ - 10148; ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD..
70219/BET - 10148; ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD..
70231/MCG - 10148; ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD..
70308/SNP - 10148; ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258349 · Replies: · Views: 31,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 10:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(plowxpress @ Dec 9 2017, 09:29 PM) *
It is so nice out. Congrats guys on a job well done. Here's to many more over performers this winter

[attachment=335135:2017_12_...22.27.02.jpg]


Picturesque!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258332 · Replies: · Views: 103,389

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 06:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 9 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Pics


Awesome
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258241 · Replies: · Views: 103,389

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 06:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(tool483 @ Dec 9 2017, 05:43 PM) *
you can definitively see the moisture start to pivot if you look at the line east of DC


It's not tilting. The moisture is still moving NE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258234 · Replies: · Views: 103,389

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 06:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 9 2017, 05:31 PM) *
Winds starting to come out of the west and NW should help to dry out the lower levels as the best dynamics are pushing into SNE should start to see the shield kind of collapse over the next few hours.


We know he's not talking about SNE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258225 · Replies: · Views: 103,389

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 06:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 9 2017, 05:15 PM) *
6pm: 4.2".

2-6pm Loop. There still looks to be some decent amount of moisture heading this way.. Center of storm is about 175 miles off the NY coast now.



Great loop...I'm trying to figure out how Steve is claiming it's intensifying when you can see the gaps plain as day.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2258217 · Replies: · Views: 103,389

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