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> Nov 24-25 (Thanksgiving) MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Observation Thread
JDClapper
post Nov 15 2016, 08:27 PM
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Long time lurker .. been watching you guys for awhile and have come to the conclusion anyone can do this.. I mean, can't do much worse.

biggrin.gif

In all seriousness .. Thanksgiving period looks active. 18z GFS was some candy (click to animate) .. CMC, Euro, NAV seem to have it, but timing differences.. oh yeah, a little BSR support never hurt no one... here we go!


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BSR ..


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This post has been edited by JDClapper: Nov 23 2016, 10:14 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 15 2016, 08:30 PM
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Here was the 18z GFS Candy for Thanksgiving/Black Friday..


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 15 2016, 08:49 PM
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Turkey!!!


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HV Snowstorm
post Nov 15 2016, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 15 2016, 08:30 PM) *
Here was the 18z GFS Candy for Thanksgiving/Black Friday..


Attached Image



First official fantasy eye candyland map showing MBY in prime postion! WOOHOO!! Boy do I love me some CANDY! ohmy.gif
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jdrenken
post Nov 15 2016, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 15 2016, 07:27 PM) *
Long time lurker .. been watching you guys for awhile and have come to the conclusion anyone can do this.. I mean, can't do much worse.

biggrin.gif

In all seriousness .. Thanksgiving period looks active. 18z GFS was some candy (click to animate) .. CMC, Euro, NAV seem to have it, but timing differences.. oh yeah, a little BSR support never hurt no one... here we go!


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


BSR ..


Attached Image


Attached Image






--------------------
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JDClapper
post Nov 15 2016, 10:45 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 15 2016, 11:21 PM) *



Don't you dare do that to me laugh.gif The last Black Knight storm I lived across the street from where the snow fell.. my house, not so much. laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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rtcemc
post Nov 15 2016, 11:42 PM
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Guess it won't take till 1st week of Dec for bannings. Luv ya JD Clap, but you "outta here" ohmy.gif
Will miss your tracker though....
And don't make me break out the "its the pattern" lecture this early UT huh.gif
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jdrenken
post Nov 15 2016, 11:55 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 15 2016, 09:45 PM) *
Don't you dare do that to me laugh.gif The last Black Knight storm I lived across the street from where the snow fell.. my house, not so much. laugh.gif


Oh quit your belly achin!


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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JDClapper
post Nov 16 2016, 12:10 AM
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0z GFS just a tad different from 18z. wink.gif

Click to animate


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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shaulov4
post Nov 16 2016, 01:04 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 16 2016, 12:10 AM) *
0z GFS just a tad different from 18z. wink.gif

Click to animate


Attached Image


Surely more back and forth to go around until then wink.gif , certainly interesting times ahead.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 16 2016, 01:19 AM
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Seems to me like an introduction into the new pattern storm. I like the chances of something better after this storm. During this time we are transitioning into a -NAO -AO regime, how long that stays or how intense it may be is up in the air. Of course though it is rather early in the season. Usually dont see snow down here until atleast December but hey there have been surprises before. Tricky ideas trying to get an occluding system to have some wrap around moisture once the cold filters in. The way it seems possible is if the storm is further south overall and the what looks to be newly developing low can capture the energy from the negative tilt of the trough. If that occurs Adirondacks and maybe even into the PA mountains may be waking up to some of the white stuff.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Nov 16 2016, 01:20 AM


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Undertakerson
post Nov 16 2016, 04:05 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 16 2016, 06:13 AM
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CTP already mentioning Turkey Day

QUOTE
Day8 is starting to look interesting with the ECMWF rolling a
flat wave in from the west as cold air is still in place in the
north
. The GFS is more amplified and north with the track of the
surface low - making a milder/wet storm for Wed- Thanksgiving Day
.
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Undertakerson
post Nov 16 2016, 06:15 AM
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A 4 panel view of the Euro run at 00z

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your_entness
post Nov 16 2016, 08:30 AM
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Will be tracking this one, as I'll be driving from Central VA up to Northern PA Friday morning. Excited for storm tracking season again.
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rtcemc
post Nov 16 2016, 08:58 AM
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All busting aside, you cats opening these long range threads and the long range fall thread inputs have been very helpful to me with planning. Started my month long Christmas light project early, before the cold moves in. Also, helped me when to plan first of 2 hand surgeries post golf season. Keep up the great work, gang! Now enough of me being all warm and fuzzy laugh.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 16 2016, 11:23 AM
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QUOTE(your_entness @ Nov 16 2016, 08:30 AM) *
Will be tracking this one, as I'll be driving from Central VA up to Northern PA Friday morning. Excited for storm tracking season again.


A little deja vu for me there. During the 11/26/14 snowstorm you passed the mountain I live on and posted an update, and just as you did we changed over to snow.

At least I think that was you. huh.gif

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Nov 16 2016, 11:24 AM


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kpk33x
post Nov 16 2016, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Nov 16 2016, 08:58 AM) *
All busting aside, you cats opening these long range threads and the long range fall thread inputs have been very helpful to me with planning. Started my month long Christmas light project early, before the cold moves in. Also, helped me when to plan first of 2 hand surgeries post golf season. Keep up the great work, gang! Now enough of me being all warm and fuzzy laugh.gif


How many lights?

I had 5000+ as the neighborhood's Clark Griswold when I lived in PA. I put about 2/3 of them up in my first winter and lost over half of them to the wires freezing. So I went with 2 star shower units and cut my light project time from about 4-5 hours down to 15 minutes.

I would not mind a repeat of 11/26/14 since I got a foot of snow here but I am convinced this storm is a Cutter. No scientific basis to this....but there has been no established cold pattern - cold has been transient the past 2 months, and I see any early week cold air retreating before this storm arrives except at highest elevation. I hope I am wrong...and its early...


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jdrenken
post Nov 16 2016, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 16 2016, 05:13 AM) *
CTP already mentioning Turkey Day


A flat wave...gee...imagine that! wink.gif


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 16 2016, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2016, 12:11 PM) *
A flat wave...gee...imagine that! wink.gif


can we please not add stinking winkies to everything and explain what people mean in their posts. I know people work and have little time. I do too, do everything I post from my phone.

maybe I or someone else in the know understands these posts

but newcomers and lurkers HAVE TO HATE THEM

it cant do anything good for adding new posters to see some of the smartest posters being cryptic and insiderish.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 16 2016, 12:57 PM


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