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> GFS Fantasy Land Runs, Hours 264-384(Days 11-16)
NorEaster07
post Aug 27 2013, 01:58 PM
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Hoping to use this thread to post the runs of the GFS in "fantasy land" of 11-16 days out. I wont be able to post 4 runs a day but hopefully others can chime in at times and post something they see.

I'll probably just post the "interesting" or fantasy looking frames. Pretty much the abnormals? ie: Torches or below normal and snow and of course any anomalous storm its showing..

So here we go...

Todays 12z run. Hours 324 and 360. PV drops down into Northeast. 850 temps below freezing down to southern PA. Snow into southern Quebec and Ontario Canada. Temps into the 20s over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Attached File  GFS11.jpg ( 815.22K ) Number of downloads: 6



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Aug 27 2013, 04:33 PM
Post #2




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Here's GFS hr348 from August 25th. Sunday September 8th timeframe

Attached File  GFS8.jpg ( 365.59K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Aug 28 2013, 05:18 AM
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Change of heart for the GFS00z? Trough out west, Ridge in East. 80s in mid Sept would be V warm.

Very last frame. First time I've seen this setup in the long range..

Attached File  GFS13.jpg ( 498.51K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 28 2013, 07:01 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Aug 28 2013, 07:01 AM
Post #4




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Member No.: 18,864





Looks like the 00z was a blurp. Back to the "theme" again on the 06z. 1032 Block!

Attached File  GFS14.jpg ( 740.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  GFS15.jpg ( 506.38K ) Number of downloads: 8


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 28 2013, 07:02 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 28 2013, 07:11 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 28 2013, 08:01 AM) *
Looks like the 00z was a blurp. Back to the "theme" again on the 06z. 1032 Block!

Attached File  GFS14.jpg ( 740.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  GFS15.jpg ( 506.38K ) Number of downloads: 8

That's yesterday's 6z run. Obviously it's worth practically nothing 384 hours out but the 6z run does continue the massive ridge that the 0z run had. Of course, it will change a million times before it reaches 192 hours out, that's a part of the whole fantasy range craziness.

Mid 80s would be quite uncomfortable in mid September given this year's pattern, but are far from unusual as we've seen upper 90s-low 100s in September before (THAT is something I hope doesn't happen this year, and fortunately I highly doubt 90+ degrees)

Attached File  f372.gif ( 105.17K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 28 2013, 07:14 AM
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NorEaster07
post Aug 28 2013, 10:17 AM
Post #6




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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 28 2013, 08:11 AM) *
That's yesterday's 6z run.


Thanks! Looks like Allan's site didn't update this morning. It has since and obviously not the same images. Yes, this thread is more for fun and something to look back on for curiosity wise. Nobody should put any faith or stock into what is being shown. We might catch a few moments in time where it will be right that far out (like Hurricane Sandy) but it will usually change a ton of times.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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kpk33x
post Aug 28 2013, 11:06 AM
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Member No.: 1,100





I like this topic! Great idea! I'll leave the maps up to others but I'll put it into words...

Looks like an early end to the growing season over the entire upper midwest, upper plains and the northeast and even mid atlantic. I would think clear skies under that big, strong ~1030 high pressure centered in Ohio and the 850 line down to Baltimore would support temps in the morning of the 11th at or below freezing at BWI and Baltimore/DC N and NW suburbs, and probably some frosts into Virginia. Bradford, PA? Probably 15 if winds go to calm. Thousands of record lows would be set.

Were that to happen, BWI would easily smash the record low of 43 on the 11th set in 1917, and probably the record low on the 10th as the temps fall off. BWI's first record low below freezing was set on 10/4/74 and its first record low at 27 or below on 10/11/64.

Even BWI's record low max of 61 set in 1883 on September 11th would be in trouble. Usually record low maxes are caused by the right rainy day setup at that time of year. If the minimum is in the mid/high 20s or low 30s and there's so much cold air around and only just over 12 hours of sunlight...max would be around 55-58 as long as the center of the high pressure does not pass during the afternoon.

Surely the front that ushers in this frigid air will cause a severe weather thread for Sept 7-10 to be opened! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Aug 28 2013, 11:10 AM


--------------------
Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15
First sub 45 low - 9/9
First sub 40 low - 9/13
First sub 35 low - 9/15 (low for season 34F on 9/15)
First frost - 9/15
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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NorEaster07
post Sep 3 2013, 06:26 AM
Post #8




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GFS6z Jet stream at hr 372 (says 384 but its 372)

Attached File  GFS20.jpg ( 250.84K ) Number of downloads: 8


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Sep 8 2013, 12:26 PM
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GFS12z Hour 312 Saturday September 21st.

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: YGX    LAT=  56.35 LON=  -94.70 ELE=   476

                                            12Z SEP08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK  
FRI 12Z 20-SEP   0.8     1.3    1013      82      65    0.00     557     546    
SAT 00Z 21-SEP   1.4    -4.0    1012      95      82    0.71     548     538    
SAT 12Z 21-SEP  -2.4    -1.7    1020      96      21    0.02     556     540    
SUN 00Z 22-SEP   3.0     4.8    1014      95      69    0.01     559     547


Attached File  GFS30.jpg ( 566.23K ) Number of downloads: 2




--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Juniorrr
post Sep 8 2013, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 8 2013, 01:26 PM) *
GFS12z Hour 312 Saturday September 21st.

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: YGX    LAT=  56.35 LON=  -94.70 ELE=   476

                                            12Z SEP08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK  
FRI 12Z 20-SEP   0.8     1.3    1013      82      65    0.00     557     546    
SAT 00Z 21-SEP   1.4    -4.0    1012      95      82    0.71     548     538    
SAT 12Z 21-SEP  -2.4    -1.7    1020      96      21    0.02     556     540    
SUN 00Z 22-SEP   3.0     4.8    1014      95      69    0.01     559     547


Attached File  GFS30.jpg ( 566.23K ) Number of downloads: 2

Couple hundred miles south woulda been better smile.gif

But this is gold because fantasy land is approaching the CONUS soon in an area near you...

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Sep 8 2013, 05:26 PM
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NorEaster07
post Sep 11 2013, 07:31 PM
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Been many runs since I seen something worth noting in this range.

GFS18z 9/11/13

Attached File  GFS37.jpg ( 663.87K ) Number of downloads: 4



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Sep 22 2013, 05:35 AM
Post #12




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Posts: 11,456
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





GFS00z today

Attached File  GFS.jpg ( 678.59K ) Number of downloads: 3


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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kpk33x
post Sep 22 2013, 10:04 AM
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From: Intervale, NH
Member No.: 1,100





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 22 2013, 06:35 AM) *
GFS00z today

Attached File  GFS.jpg ( 678.59K ) Number of downloads: 3


As that departs it might send some back end snow/flurries down the highest Appalachians to PA/MD/WV; that one's pretty wound up laugh.gif


--------------------
Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15
First sub 45 low - 9/9
First sub 40 low - 9/13
First sub 35 low - 9/15 (low for season 34F on 9/15)
First frost - 9/15
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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NorEaster07
post Sep 22 2013, 07:11 PM
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GFS18z 9/22/13 for October 6th/7th timeframe. (hour336/348)

Attached File  GFS1.jpg ( 1.01MB ) Number of downloads: 4


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Oct 10 2013, 01:43 PM
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For the very first time GFS shows cold enough temps at all levels and white stuff for the Northeast. Very last frame.

925 temps for Pittsfield, MA is 34F. 850s below 30.


Attached File  GFS30.jpg ( 446.36K ) Number of downloads: 1



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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HV Snowstorm
post Nov 1 2013, 10:23 PM
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Should we find it concerning or a GFS improvment that we havent seen any real fantasy snowstorms at this point in the year???
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