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Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 06:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 19 2018, 05:29 AM) *
We've seen so many time this winter, phased solutions that back off once you near that 100 hour mark. That includes modeled "cutters" to coastal bombs. We've seen occasional phasing, but I feel that's been the exception to the norm. With a fairly active MJO, I think blocking will be more difficult to come by, and favoring slightly more progressive systems is the way to go. I don't necessary mean faster though, just more trof/ridge/trof/ridge oscillation, than a persistent one. But that can all change if the MJO gets stuck, or dies.

Just kinda thinking out loud.


Fits this outlook --
Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288789 · Replies: · Views: 15,599

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 05:51 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Signal still moderate to strong with this potential.

Not much use in posting the output (surface, verbatim), but there's no reason to think this won't happen or would be any particular precip type result.

A glimpse of H5 on the most recent GFS

Attached Image


it actually closes off late with a system on the EC near NE.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288786 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 05:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Hmmm

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


As we see increasingly better Western Ridge being modeled, so too does the downstream evolution change towards a cold type solution
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288785 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 05:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


CTP

QUOTE
A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday
and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain
showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch
of Liq Equiv
precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low
pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which
could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums
of snow.

Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow
showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288783 · Replies: · Views: 15,599

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 05:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,546
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 19 2018, 04:37 AM) *
Glad I didn't bother starting another thread. Looks less like a "cutter" as get closer.

EPS with spread.

[attachment=344158:render_g...d_CpFKDc.png]
[attachment=344159:render_g...d_SsDmF_.png]
[attachment=344160:render_g...d_Z2PZ1c.png]
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/c...l_north_america

GYX

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

I always watch those iso's for "sag" or "bulge" - they do tend to suggest the model is "thinking" or "looking" in a different direction than the Op run main reflections.

Nice to see the mention of that in an official disco. smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288781 · Replies: · Views: 15,599

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 05:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,546
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 18 2018, 11:44 PM) *
Doesn't matter if they are repeats, still funny. Yea I so need a break from cold and snow. I am concerned that it may be brief though. Quite frankly, anymore I much prefer cold and mild; snow, then melt, vs. this constantly. May be an age thing. Think we may go into a more in and out cold/ warm pattern going forward. We can still get big snows out of that, especially in February as we normally get more warm/cold contrasts. Just don't want another snow and cold onslaught. So my stuck counter says my 11,000th post was about who my wife slept with laugh.gif laugh.gif



QUOTE(RickRD @ Jan 18 2018, 11:52 PM) *
LOL! 11,000 posts! that's awesome. congrats. hope at least your kids look a little like you... ohmy.gif



QUOTE(RickRD @ Jan 18 2018, 11:55 PM) *
and yes, its going to be a bit above normal. but any kinks can bring the goods....


Ya never know what ya might read during the rooster shift.

But this exchange had me belly laughing first thing on a Friday.

I'd do a reply but, honestly, I'm not sure I should laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288779 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 12:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 18 2018, 11:46 AM) *
In it second image, what does the 489 low off the coast mean? I'm confused over the difference in the first two images

The maps show different levels PARD (see insert top right) one is surface, one is H5 (500mb)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288697 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 04:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Attached Image


Attached Image



(it's a video you can watch if you click link)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/climatewatch.html

That look would tend to shut off the GOM - BUT only as an overall look, the tap can get going during intervals.

And the cold, not so bold, won't take hold message is also "overall" - they are not saying it won't be cold, more so that the uber deep cold is far less likely. That puts MidAtl in battleground, and if you like winter storms, that is where you want to be for the action.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288625 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 04:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Cyclone Bomb? (LH side of GIF)

Apply TR timing.

Click to animate

Attached Image


(puts snow blower lube on shopping list)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288624 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 06:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(Kohler7 @ Jan 17 2018, 06:20 PM) *
Still getting flurries here. Last I measured we were at 8 1/2. Will measure again when it completely stops. Kelso burn for the northeast ppl who constantly hog the forums if I got more then you down here. tongue.gif

Nice - smile.gif

You'll have to let us know when you hit double digits. I'm seeing reports out of coal country that indicate that would be the standard. I'll see if I (or someone) can come up with "official" reports.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288573 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 06:56 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 17 2018, 06:52 AM) *
Looks blue ridge and Cumberland valley got 4-5" depending on locale. Still snowing lightly and very pretty. A nice little event indeed. Sure seems like a hook up is trying to be made between North and South on radar.

Been watching that in real time and ignoring the models. I noticed that hook up too. The bands started to pivot from s/e - n/w down here at rooster shift start time and have since moved back and forth. That suggests the coastal (such that it is, it's a runt) is trying to push influence. But the inland low over W Carolina region will probably steal that.

Or will it.....?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288352 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 06:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


HRRR continues to struggle with this one.

For example 9z shows no snow in my region - while I'm still under a decent band of light steady snow (added around 1" since ~3:30)

Attached Image


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288347 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 04:08 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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The model few want on "their side"

Honestly though, it's not been AS terrible this winter (but still shucks)

Attached Image


But the idea that a large storm - has designs on this time pd.

Euro also has a long wave trough with potent southern energy for this time pd. Maybe as or more important a well placed 1044mb High, seemingly anchored over top of Maine.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288326 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 03:51 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Measured 5.5 on one snowboard, 5.75" on the other (still snowing)

More than doubling my seasonal total here on UTS Hill
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288324 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 03:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jan 16 2018, 09:36 PM) *
Fixed..

wink.gif

Thank you Obi Wan
tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288316 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 07:26 PM


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Something is going on during this time period, it will take a while for models to sort it all out of course. But the signal is strong.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288177 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:59 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288155 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:58 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 16 2018, 06:56 PM) *
You just don't see this very often tbh


Attached Image

I mean not without some raging beast system anyway
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288153 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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You just don't see this very often tbh


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288152 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 06:48 PM) *
Wasn't the theory supposed to be that we would get an influx of moisture off of the Atlantic to feed this?? Cuz it sure looks as if the western part of this is starting to die off, even north of here.

not sure what others were thinking but I saw the Atl as a primer not a true contributor. It moistened the pre-game atmosphere so that when the actual storm precip came, it snowed without much if any virga period. It was pretty much, radar shows snow, it was snow, at least down here it was that way.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288146 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 162251
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
551 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Positive tilt trough extending from the Great Lakes region will
aid the formation of a weak secondary low that will track from
the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.

2230Z regional radar mosaic showing light snow falling over
nearly the entire forecast area with snow band enhancement just
to the northwest side of I-81 associated with fgen forcing
beneath right entrance region of 130+ kt jet.
Latest models
indicate light snow will taper off from west to east overnight,
with enhanced band of moderate snow linked to jet streak
lifting across the Susquehanna Valley.

Using blended qpf of latest HRRR/NAM and earlier NBM, expect
additional accums between 21Z-12Z of around an inch over the
western half of the forecast area, to between 3-5 inches over
the Middle Susq Valley and Poconos.
Examination of omega/temp
time sections suggest snow/water ratios will be close to 15/1.
Snow totals in the 6-8 range appear likely over the Mid Susq
Valley/Poconos, just short of 24hr warning criteria, so no
changes planned to the current headlines.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288143 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Can one of you plow cats come visit your ol pal UTS? The muni has shown no interest in doing UTS Hill and it's a snow over ice mess. sad.gif

tongue.gif tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288136 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


One heck of a storm.

From one of my Fb'rs

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288132 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 06:31 PM) *
It really is incredible; never seen this one before. Again, the back edge is moving, but the front edge isn't laugh.gif

All morning, I was basically in the front edge of the lite bands. I thought - that's odd, I've spent all winter on the back edge eeking it out, now I'm eeking on the front edge?

Weird and neat system.

I'm not remembering any quite like it. Stalled front and potent jet FTW. (I refuse to even consider this clipper snow at this point, SLP is hardly discernable)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288129 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,546
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 06:16 PM) *
It literally will not move se, and wondering about totals now. Stopped at office again, so not advancing yet.



QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 06:17 PM) *
It really isn't when it was supposed to snow all day here in most of the LV.



QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Jan 16 2018, 06:25 PM) *
That was bonus stuff... realistically I'm like 10 miles Northeast of you? I'm pushing 3" and it's snowing pretty hard.. Penndot is plowing

Check out that cut off line - as if it were drawn with a straightedge. I am located approx. under the "32" mark for MDT on this map - it is +SN ATTM and big flakes, not those puny Nano's from most of the day

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288123 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

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