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> Hurricane Fabio (C2), Eastern Pacific | Category 2 | 110 mph winds | 964 mb
Solstice
post Jul 1 2018, 06:41 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
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Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018


CODE
...FABIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


Static GOES-16 Band 3 Image
Attached Image


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jul 11 2018, 07:31 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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idecline
post Jul 2 2018, 07:30 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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...lots of warm water and plenty of room to roam...AccuWeather trends say Fabio quickly becomes Major Hurricane...
QUOTE
Hurricane Fabio continues to strengthen in the Eastern Pacific
7/2/2018 4:50:00 PM
Hurricane Fabio is located about 640 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum winds of 85 mph. Fabio is on a westerly course farther south than what Emilia took and will remain within an environment of low shear and deep warm waters for the next 24-36 hours. Given these very favorable conditions, Fabio is expected to intensify rapidly over the next 24 hours and become a major hurricane.

Fabio will remain on a west-northwestward track away from any landmasses. However, dangerous swells and rip currents from Fabio will impact the coastlines of Mexico and Baja California Sur for much of this week. Fabio will encounter cooler waters later Wednesday and Wednesday night, causing the storm to weaken.

The rest of the East Pacific basin remains relatively quiet and further tropical development across this basin is not expected through at least the end of this week and perhaps through the upcoming weekend.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


...although recent updates from NHC give much less chance of quick development...
CODE
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022033
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has continued to improve over the past several
hours. A banding eye-like feature has appeared in visible imagery,
but it is not yet evident in IR channels. A recent ASCAT pass
around 1730 UTC indicated that the cyclone remains fairly
asymmetric, but the inner-core has tightened somewhat. The
corresponding AMSU microwave imagery at that time indicated that the
western eyewall was somewhat open, but the latest visible imagery
suggests that the eyewall may be finally closing off, despite the
presence of a dry slot that wraps around the western and southern
portions of the inner core. A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB supported an initial intensity of 70 kt at 1800 UTC, and
given the improvement of the cloud pattern since that time, the
initial intensity has been raised to 75 kt.

The intensity guidance is dramatically different from 24 hours ago,
and now most of the guidance keeps Fabio below major hurricane
strength. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low for at
least the next 3 days, but the hurricane only has about 24 hours
left to strengthen over warm SSTs. Beginning around 36 hours, quick
weakening will occur as it becomes embedded within an unfavorable
thermodynamic environment. Given that the inner core of the
hurricane finally appears to be contracting, the forecast is still
on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, close to
the DSHP forecast and similar to the previous advisory. After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through day 5.

The earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the center was a little north
of the previous estimates, and this has since been confirmed by the
presence of the banding eye. The track forecast has therefore been
adjusted northward accordingly, but otherwise is very similar to the
previous advisory. Fabio is still forecast to move west-northwest
to northwestward over the next 4 to 5 days along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge. The models remain in fairly good
agreement on the track forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the
various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.8N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.4N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.5N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 16.6N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 17.9N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.8N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 24.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


...here is the 'cone-age' map... unsure.gif
Attached Image


...looks to head to NW and eventually dissipate over open waters...may have little effect on CONUS weather


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 3 2018, 08:42 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w/goes-epac-wv.html
QUOTE
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The overall satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to
improve today. The eye has become better defined and warmed while
the ring of cold clouds tops has wrapped more around the center
since the previous advisory. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB are consensus T5.0s while objective Dvorak T-numbers from
UW-CIMSS are T5.9. Bases on these data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt. Fabio has a little time left over warm
waters in which to reach major hurricane status, but by early
Wednesday the hurricane will be moving over cooler SSTs and into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should cause
the hurricane to begin to weaken. A more rapid rate of filling is
forecast to begin by late Wednesday and Fabio is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm within 48 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Fabio is moving west-northwestward around 13 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning since the previous advisory.
The hurricane should move west-northwestward to northwestward
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement and the new NHC foreast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.8N 116.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.5N 118.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 17.7N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.3N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.9N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.8N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 27.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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