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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 12:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 16 2018, 12:48 PM) *
Actually have 39 on my window thermometer. blink.gif There is a good little bit of melting going on.

Wow - I know it's probably off by a few Degrees, but still.

SN just picked back up to intensity not yet seen prior to this.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287966 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 12:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 12:41 PM) *
Sadly, everything sags as time goes on ohmy.gif "Reflurrying" here at office again. Never really stopped up in Tripoli.

True story laugh.gif

My IMBY is at 31F.

Sun angle? unsure.gif tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287964 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 12:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


roads are well attended to and just wet here in Hbg - a bit over an inch or so I'd say so far.

Continues very small flaked snow, steady for the most part, waning every now and then.

Temps near 28-30F are probably really helping the main roads, even UTS Hill road is only 75% covered
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287962 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 06:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Jan 16 2018, 06:32 AM) *
Do I spy some 8-12s?? And just advisories??

I painted the possibility into my map (or tried to) that area, at times, prone to overperforming.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287736 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 04:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 16 2018, 04:31 AM) *
I saw they issued a lot more advisories around 3am for most of their coverage area.


Hmm - yes, I edited my post to mention the time stamps of the message etc. I had not noticed the increased advisories, TBH
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287725 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 04:29 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


.
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Snow out the window now, and many locations in the NW are white
per web cams. Only a minor change to the snow fall and eventual
totals has been made with this update. All the new 00z data is
not in just yet, but most recent CAMs and the NAM and ARW-WRF
suggest more snow over the central and SE counties overall, but
still spread out over a long time. Will hold off until all the
00z guid is in to make any tweaks to the WWAs, but some change
is possible, esp in the central counties, where 3" of snow now
looks possible, but the whole event will last a little longer
than the 12 hr criteria for an advy
. Will let future shift
collaborate with the neighbors on any changes to the WWAs.


AFDCTP (says was written at 12:58 but I doubt that - seems more recent with the mention of snow, which could have begun at 2:30 EARLIEST)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287723 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 04:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 16 2018, 03:56 AM) *
Great map! Yeah I see on radar snow starting to break out through PA... good to hear its not virga for you at least..

thanks, it may be a first and last because I'm not that big on the "numbers game".

As we discussed yesterday, I think that marine layer present yesterday (and made it snow here and other places) pumped the Rh values enough so that Virga would be less of an issue today
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287719 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 04:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 16 2018, 03:58 AM) *
RGEM coming in now, tick east with the coastal (colder) and also slightly quicker. Still appears to have a decent amount of QPF, waiting for it to play out.

RGEM likes the Pocono region as a whole
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287718 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 16 2018, 03:31 AM) *
6z 3KM NAM


Hmmm - I made a first ever snow map guess yesterday which I put out to my Fb crew yesterday a.m..

Very crude but here it is

Attached Image


I rate it a "not bad" first ever effort

Oh - and it has just started snowing here in Harrisburg (at least on top of UTS Hill that is)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287712 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Jan 14 2018, 12:46 AM) *
Looks like a system coming up next weekend. CMC has been pointing at it for awhile. GFS is finally seeing it.




huh.gif
Well - except that the GFS had this potential storm since the very beginning - it showed up at Hr300 of 00z run GFS on 1/9 (and if I check my archives, probably even before then) - a point in time when CMC was not even "in range"


So to say the Canadian saw it first is laughable.


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287711 · Replies: · Views: 3,831

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


CTP


.
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Low clouds remain banked over eastern third of PA, while a deck
of mid and high clouds stream over central and northern sections.
A break in the mid-high cloud deck has arrived over the west but
will fill in this evening. Some light snow currently over the
Ohio/PA border will swing towards my northwest zones by evening
.

Latest short range guidance continues to track the weakening
clipper system north of the region tonight, producing a swath of
light snow across western and central PA overnight into Tuesday
morning with light amounts for most. Some upslope enhancement
near the Maryland border may produce local Advisory amounts
there from late tonight through late Monday morning, and a
Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Somerset to Franklin
Counties for this in collaboration with WFO LWX. Fairly high
snow to water ratios favor Advisory criteria snowfall in this
area.
Elsewhere, expect a little over an inch across the north
central mountains by dawn, with little by morning across the
southeast. However, some light snowmay begin by 10z or shortly
thereafter over the Lower susq River Valley, complicating the
morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clipper will continue to fill while a weak secondary low
tracking from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic
coast, combined with frontogenetic forcing resulting from jet
streak entrance circulation,
could potentially produce several
inches of additional accumulation across the southeast portion
of the forecast area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Latest models and
collaboration with WPC and surrounding offices gives us a long
duration Advisory event, with 3 to 5 inches in a 24 to 30 hour
period from 12z Tuesday through 18z Wednesday.
Issued Winter
Weather Advisory in collaboration with LWX, PHI and BGM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Did up pops a little Tuesday night into the first part of
Wed, as the upper lvl torugh takes longer to lift out. Not
really a big event, but a longer duration event.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287450 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Crimson_Sprite @ Jan 15 2018, 04:21 PM) *
OH! lol! THat makes much more sense then.... feel a bit daft now. Thanks for the info! biggrin.gif

you can find it on key 34,001. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287446 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 15 2018, 04:19 PM) *
Thanks Dr. Buzzkill.

laugh.gif

LOL

Just keeping it real - still many reports also of folks saying "over performer" so, that balance is out.

Can I still hang out with the cool kids? laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287444 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Spied the MW thread and see some talk of Nano flakes - may lead to disappointment. Maybe the saturation out ahead can help ward that off?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287441 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Crimson_Sprite @ Jan 15 2018, 04:08 PM) *
Hey can anyone help me with the SREF plumes map? I used to be able to get inches but now it just shows up as some sort of nano plank scale for the number 0 when giving snowfall... dry.gif , I just cant suss out how to get it to inches on the left bar. I am due to get about 4" in general so I know 0.00000000008 is not correct. Sorry for the newb question, I hit all 34,000 keys on my computer to change it and nothing.... sad.gif

screenshot of my sref map...

that sref is for Oklahoma, maybe select your station - idk?

Attached Image


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287438 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287432 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 15 2018, 03:47 PM) *
Very cool look! Without that piece (coastal storm) I don't think we would be seeing more than 2" anywhere in the Northeast.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/...930031696793600

[attachment=343814:Tweet3.jpg]

Been mentioning that since this morning - it's a game changer compared to most clippers.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287429 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Jan 15 2018, 03:35 PM) *
True bruh... However it doesn't look as robust as 32k. More to my point. wink.gif

folks still look at 32K? Huh bruh, learned something new today.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287425 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 15 2018, 03:32 PM) *
Yea although in this case I think possible precip type issues and the transfer creating a dry slot are more the issue for the NYC area than the clipper drying up.

it's not a transfer though.

This go around, the coastal is weaker all around less influential with QPF field, the run actually puts out more snow from the front dynamics than did 12z which is why CTP zones do well.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287415 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Jan 15 2018, 03:30 PM) *
NAM 3k looks dry as a bone...


depends on where on lives

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287413 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


lol - another one of the "several" redevelops early off Carolina and stripes snow the whole way to Alabama from about Cape May
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287393 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Central PA almost all 6+ on NAM
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287387 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 30,516
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Pittsburgh now reporting snow again after a lull
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287378 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Jan 15 2018, 03:07 PM) *
NAM looking more NWwith the precip so far

it is, and coastal is developing a bit earlier (out to Hr 28)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287377 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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KMDT now reporting snow, officially - as per METAR

http://www.aviationweather.gov/metar
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287372 · Replies: · Views: 41,466

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