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> May 29 - 30 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Moderate Risk Forecast & Discussion
yankees
post May 24 2012, 05:54 AM
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Cape is prety high on the GFS for this day and a cold front would be approaching the area as well providing lift. While SPC shows nothiung I thought with the cape values of up to 2000 in parts of the area and the approaching cold front that it would be good to start a thread.


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NYCSuburbs
post May 24 2012, 07:15 AM
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I won't look at this in more detail until the afternoon, but with a cold front moving through as well as decent instability/humidity, IMO there's definitely a potential for strong/severe storms on Tuesday. You may want to extend the thread back to Sunday as well as some storms are expected on Sunday and Monday as well.

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Undertakerson
post May 24 2012, 11:45 AM
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Thank for opening this thread - I had mentioned in the "heat" thread that someone should open this for discussion. I too will take a closer look - after work. But for now, I'm wondering what, if any influence, that tropical based, west drifting LP down in the southeast will pump additional warm instability up the east of the Apps. HPC maps suggest a bit of a frontal feature in E. PA for 5/29 - should help serve as a focal point.

As was said, CAPE, lift and lapse rates seem to indicate that the holiday weekend may end with a large bang. A quick peep at Skew-T (per GFS depiction) shows heavy precip mixing down from 200-300 will just add to the "fun"
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Undertakerson
post May 27 2012, 04:58 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 24 2012, 12:45 PM) *
Thank for opening this thread - I had mentioned in the "heat" thread that someone should open this for discussion. I too will take a closer look - after work. But for now, I'm wondering what, if any influence, that tropical based, west drifting LP down in the southeast will pump additional warm instability up the east of the Apps. HPC maps suggest a bit of a frontal feature in E. PA for 5/29 - should help serve as a focal point.

As was said, CAPE, lift and lapse rates seem to indicate that the holiday weekend may end with a large bang. A quick peep at Skew-T (per GFS depiction) shows heavy precip mixing down from 200-300 will just add to the "fun"

Looks like my thoughts (bolded above) could bear out for this time period.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN A BROAD AND MORE
AMPLIFIED 925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE ON MEMORIAL DAY
. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL STREAM INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION
.


AFDCTP

QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...
INITIAL BRUNT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC ON
TUESDAY...WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIAL SECONDARY PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY
INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THAT
MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG SEEM LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH INTO WV/NY/PA.
..AND WITH MODERATE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LEAST GRAZING THE REGION...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND SEEM PROBABLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 27 2012, 05:04 AM
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yankees
post May 27 2012, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 270730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...
INITIAL BRUNT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC ON
TUESDAY...WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIAL SECONDARY PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY
INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THAT
MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG SEEM LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH INTO WV/NY/PA...AND WITH MODERATE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LEAST GRAZING THE REGION...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND SEEM PROBABLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS A MODESTLY STRONG/LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES OTHERWISE PERSIST. DETAILED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH INTO THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
OK/NORTH TX. WITH HEAT-AIDED WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
AND/OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OK. LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..GUYER.. 05/27/2012


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


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09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
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WEATHERFAN100
post May 27 2012, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ May 27 2012, 11:06 AM) *

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I'm thinking they move the slight risk more eastward for Tuesday, models show best parameters over eastern PA not where their slight risk is currently.


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Undertakerson
post May 27 2012, 03:33 PM
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As suspected, CTP looking at Tues with increased POP T-storms and severe potential

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SLIDING IN ACROSS THE GLAKES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANTS OF
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THEY SLIDES OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST
/THOUGH THIS MAY BE SHUNTED TO OUR EAST/. EVEN WITHOUT
THAT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS MOVING IN ON TUES FOR A
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NOTICABLY
ABOVE NORMAL
.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
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WEATHERFAN100
post May 27 2012, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 27 2012, 04:33 PM) *
As suspected, CTP looking at Tues with increased POP T-storms and severe potential

.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Rightfully so as the parameters so far look ripe for severe outbreak come Tuesday. If this CAPE over 2000 FT, LI index of -6 to -8 and other factors hold up, I would not be surprised if a moderate risk is issued for some areas of central PA.


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WEATHERFAN100
post May 27 2012, 09:31 PM
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-290230-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
. IN
ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE
REGION AND THE AREAS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


--------------------
-James
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phillyfan
post May 27 2012, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ May 27 2012, 10:31 PM) *
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-290230-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
. IN
ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE
REGION AND THE AREAS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


HWO for here in Berks just talks about late Tuesday night into early Wednesday and later Friday. Nothing about Monday.


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Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6"

Total: 6"
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Undertakerson
post May 28 2012, 05:18 AM
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QUOTE
SPC AC 280600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A BASAL/SECONDARY PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DIURNALLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A BROAD WEAKLY
CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST
1000-2000 J/KG SEEM LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OH INTO WV/NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DESTABILIZATION
COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 28 2012, 05:19 AM
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Fire/Rescue
post May 28 2012, 05:53 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 27 2012, 10:40 PM) *
HWO for here in Berks just talks about late Tuesday night into early Wednesday and later Friday. Nothing about Monday.

HWO as of this morning for Baltimore/DC has no mention what so ever for either Mon or Tuesday, only speaks of a Heat Advisory for today in both downtown Baltimore and Washington DC.

HWO
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NYCSuburbs
post May 28 2012, 03:49 PM
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Nothing excited happened or was supposed to happen today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night are the best potential for widespread storm activity, locally strong/severe in some places. There could be some isolated storm activity on Wednesday near I-95 as well depending on the timing of the cold front, with Wednesday likely another warm but less humid day for the I-95 corridor.
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Removed_Member_Dave12308_*
post May 28 2012, 05:42 PM
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In my area, today's threat seems to have died off due to an ill timed MCS that died out as it came into the local forecast area. Absolutely nothing firing on radar. To be fair, SPC mentioned that today was a conditional slight risk. Too bad there are no triggers out there, and a cap. It would have been an exciting day as all the other parameters are ripe, and if we could just get a storm to develop, it'd probably be a doozy!

Tomorrow, SPC has my area in a slight-risk zone once again. But the Probabilistic forecast has my area in a red shaded 30% zone, which makes me think we may be upgraded to Moderate risk by tomorrow morning.
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NYCSuburbs
post May 28 2012, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE(Dave12308 @ May 28 2012, 06:42 PM) *
In my area, today's threat seems to have died off due to an ill timed MCS that died out as it came into the local forecast area. Absolutely nothing firing on radar. To be fair, SPC mentioned that today was a conditional slight risk. Too bad there are no triggers out there, and a cap. It would have been an exciting day as all the other parameters are ripe, and if we could just get a storm to develop, it'd probably be a doozy!

Tomorrow, SPC has my area in a slight-risk zone once again. But the Probabilistic forecast has my area in a red shaded 30% zone, which makes me think we may be upgraded to Moderate risk by tomorrow morning.

Probably not a moderate risk as parameters aren't that impressive, although an upper end slight risk is reasonably possible as tomorrow will have more widespread activity across the region.
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mike82140
post May 28 2012, 06:12 PM
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Any possibility of the slight risk extending down to the NYC area?


--------------------
O thunderstorms where art thou?
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NYCSuburbs
post May 28 2012, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(mike82140 @ May 28 2012, 07:12 PM) *
Any possibility of the slight risk extending down to the NYC area?

It's possible, and storms are expected here tomorrow night, but the bulk of the activity will stay to our north/west.
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STEVE392
post May 28 2012, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 28 2012, 07:18 PM) *
It's possible, and storms are expected here tomorrow night, but the bulk of the activity will stay to our north/west.


ughh, and so begins another spring/start of summer with action everywhere but the nyc area. sad.gif
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Niyologist
post May 28 2012, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 28 2012, 07:18 PM) *
It's possible, and storms are expected here tomorrow night, but the bulk of the activity will stay to our north/west.


I'm glad I live at Westchester County. No more missing Severe WX for me. biggrin.gif
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albanyweather
post May 28 2012, 07:53 PM
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Severe cell finally popped in Herkimer county. Lets see if it can sustain. KALB seems concerned once they pop they could go severe. Instability is big time with CAPE @ 2500 and LI @ -10! Wish we had a better trigger. Top of the ring of fire is always hard to predict.


--------------------
Snowfall 2017-2018: 4"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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