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> Stratospheric/ Ozone Information and Discussion 2017/18, Daily PV talk and model discussion
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 12 2018, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 11 2018, 08:29 PM) *
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/962808710199480320

[attachment=348379:Screensh...1_202816.png]

Now for the million dollar question, how does it translate into the troposphere over the next month?

Recent ECMWF forecasts keep the dominant PV lobe over North America, centered more-or-less in the Hudson Bay region where a persistent PV feature has existed most of the winter. Considering the change of seasons taking place and the late-blooming, but well-established Nina event I tend to favor a Nina pattern (potent SER) for a couple of weeks. Then seasonal changes begin to dominate leading to an increasingly amplified and unstable pattern heading into March.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2018, 10:57 PM
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Off the charts heat flux. 7C at 10mb over North America... incredible




--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
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weather_boy2010
post Feb 16 2018, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 15 2018, 09:57 PM) *
Off the charts heat flux. 7C at 10mb over North America... incredible




So generally speaking, for those of us who aren't quite as wise about this stuff, what would this imply for the US of A?
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NorEaster07
post Feb 16 2018, 12:09 PM
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January 30th...
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 30 2018, 12:24 PM) *
A look at the 70hpa (lower part of Stratosphere) temps

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...re/70mb9065.png

Looks like it went from near record cold to normal rapidly in early January but has stopped the sudden increase now. The 50mb and 30mb are similar. The Middle and Upper part seems a bit more stable.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...re/temperature/
Attached File  Strat1.jpg ( 97.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


Holy *bleep*! blink.gif blink.gif Guess it was just getting started after that post. lol

Attached File  Strat.jpg ( 96.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


But............

Attached File  Map73.jpg ( 197.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey

The SSW event is likely peaking right now, and the 10mb charts are truly amazing in terms of how high the heights are across the North Pole. Cold air should certainly be unlocked by this event, but interestingly enough, the models are not consistently showing it. Forecasting where the cold will end up is difficult right now, but there are some signs.

The modeling is trying to show two significant ridges developing in the Western Hemisphere despite the SSW event. One is in the northern Pacific, and another is shown to develop off the southeastern United States.

The north Pacific ridge was rather prominent earlier in the winter and keeps trying to return, in my opinion, because of the lack of arctic sea ice in the Bering Sea and the warm PDO horseshoe slowly developing in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge popping over the northern Pacific would encourage troughing over the western United States. This has been hinted at on the medium range.

Warm ocean temperatures are also prominent in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeastern U.S. coast. With the proposed trough in the West and these warm ocean temperatures, a strong southeast ridge is certainly encouraged to develop and may have some holding power. This could block the path for the West coast cold to flood into the east.

Late in the 15-day period, the modeling is showing the area of positive heights at 10mb shifting toward Greenland, with an area of positive heights reflected down to 500 mb. This sets up some blocking in eastern Canada. While the southeastern ridge may be weakening by the end of the period, the trough may still struggle to eject cold into the eastern U.S. based on this idea. The West may be cold into early March based on this idea.

The best cold air though may end up in Siberia instead of North America. The shift after day 7 for the 10mb high towards North America should sent the best cold to that side of the globe.

With all that said, an SSW this strong should result in colder departures than we are seeing in the modeling. We think the models haven't latched on quite yet to the connection, and I believe the modeling should trend colder over the next couple of days.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 16 2018, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Feb 16 2018, 12:18 PM) *
So generally speaking, for those of us who aren't quite as wise about this stuff, what would this imply for the US of A?


Not really the place for this but will throw you a couple ideas. While SSW's help dislodge the cold up north as many state it doesnt always mean EConus to get the brunt. The way things seem to be shaping up is that the persistent west coast ridge gets knocked a peg or two but still is there so active weather pattern in the north Cali Pac NW region with cold shots leading to some snow possibilities in the NW. This should spill out into the central Conus with a still rather active storm track across the central u.s with the boundary setting up some severe. As for the E Conus that ridging will surely flex its muscles from time to time through the rest of the month gotta watch tricky little scenarios like this for something, some cold in between an overall warm pattern in the east.

As for after this time period, warmings taking place into eastern Canada up to greenland should help promote better -nao chances which should help bring a cooler then normal pattern and maybe a chance for something then down the road. Overall a very back and forth pattern through February and then we should tend to longer duration patterns as we move into march and things at this point look to slow.

One interesting thing is long range shows the SPV (strato PV) still holding in much weaker state and not having its final collapse via GFS.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 17 2018, 01:41 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Feb 16 2018, 10:18 AM) *
So generally speaking, for those of us who aren't quite as wise about this stuff, what would this imply for the US of A?



QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 16 2018, 06:07 PM) *
Not really the place for this but will throw you a couple ideas. While SSW's help dislodge the cold up north as many state it doesnt always mean EConus to get the brunt. The way things seem to be shaping up is that the persistent west coast ridge gets knocked a peg or two but still is there so active weather pattern in the north Cali Pac NW region with cold shots leading to some snow possibilities in the NW. This should spill out into the central Conus with a still rather active storm track across the central u.s with the boundary setting up some severe. As for the E Conus that ridging will surely flex its muscles from time to time through the rest of the month gotta watch tricky little scenarios like this for something, some cold in between an overall warm pattern in the east.

As for after this time period, warmings taking place into eastern Canada up to greenland should help promote better -nao chances which should help bring a cooler then normal pattern and maybe a chance for something then down the road. Overall a very back and forth pattern through February and then we should tend to longer duration patterns as we move into march and things at this point look to slow.

One interesting thing is long range shows the SPV (strato PV) still holding in much weaker state and not having its final collapse via GFS.


Well said. This is a good example of how a SSW/PV split doesn't always mean a cold eastern US. In fact, I'd call this a very unusual case. Not only do the SSWs reverse the zonals, the SSW originates from North America. The SSW pushed the split PV toward western Canada, and now we're seeing a strong -PNA pattern... and it appears we'll see a -NAO/-PNA pattern later.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 17 2018, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 17 2018, 03:41 AM) *
Well said. This is a good example of how a SSW/PV split doesn't always mean a cold eastern US. In fact, I'd call this a very unusual case. Not only do the SSWs reverse the zonals, the SSW originates from North America. The SSW pushed the split PV toward western Canada, and now we're seeing a strong -PNA pattern... and it appears we'll see a -NAO/-PNA pattern later.


Was talking with someone about the whole -pna/-nao vibe that may happen at the end of the month and most likely what that means is that we get slowing of pattern and sweeping of cold air across the country definitely a wild ride but it is that time of year for transition. I think mainly because the Atlantic side took over finishing off the large PV into a fraction it tended to push the lobe westward as things got going from the "normal" spot people are so inclined to think it happens.

In fact this is probably about as good as it gets with seeing everyone get in on some action. West coast finally start to tally up some rains and snows, unfortunately not where it needs to be but here nor there. Baroclinic clash in the middle of the country and wild ups and downs in the east with the SER pumping from time to time. Good pattern for kicking in the rainfall in areas that need it in the central portion of the country and mid atlantic with mjo firing up STJ as it progresses east. Big reason we are in the pattern in the east as we torch under 6/7 and start to bring in the waves around 8/1/2


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weather_boy2010
post Feb 18 2018, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 17 2018, 12:41 AM) *
Well said. This is a good example of how a SSW/PV split doesn't always mean a cold eastern US. In fact, I'd call this a very unusual case. Not only do the SSWs reverse the zonals, the SSW originates from North America. The SSW pushed the split PV toward western Canada, and now we're seeing a strong -PNA pattern... and it appears we'll see a -NAO/-PNA pattern later.



QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 17 2018, 12:37 PM) *
Was talking with someone about the whole -pna/-nao vibe that may happen at the end of the month and most likely what that means is that we get slowing of pattern and sweeping of cold air across the country definitely a wild ride but it is that time of year for transition. I think mainly because the Atlantic side took over finishing off the large PV into a fraction it tended to push the lobe westward as things got going from the "normal" spot people are so inclined to think it happens.

In fact this is probably about as good as it gets with seeing everyone get in on some action. West coast finally start to tally up some rains and snows, unfortunately not where it needs to be but here nor there. Baroclinic clash in the middle of the country and wild ups and downs in the east with the SER pumping from time to time. Good pattern for kicking in the rainfall in areas that need it in the central portion of the country and mid atlantic with mjo firing up STJ as it progresses east. Big reason we are in the pattern in the east as we torch under 6/7 and start to bring in the waves around 8/1/2


Appreciate both of your input, always love a chance to learn something new. As much as I have spring fever right now, I'd love another period or two of cold/snowy weather.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 22 2018, 03:06 PM
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So question..... Did this SSW event give the East record heat? tongue.gif ohmy.gif
Or not enough lag time to consider it as a piece?

Attached File  Strat1.jpg ( 103.29K ) Number of downloads: 1

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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 22 2018, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 22 2018, 05:06 PM) *
So question..... Did this SSW event give the East record heat? tongue.gif ohmy.gif
Or not enough lag time to consider it as a piece?

Attached File  Strat1.jpg ( 103.29K ) Number of downloads: 1

Its possible I think it could have added a factor into it with how everything was positioned this go around of the event. There was some large warming episodes across much of the NE US in SE Canada on the eastern side of the SPV. The main ridging aloft was across the carribean and GOM which though from time to time led to large ridging ideas up the east coast to set up because of this but it happened to be more likely from MJO; we were stuck in phase 7 for almost 3 weeks which is usually a torch for much of the east coast and with enhancement from aloft the ridging seemed to build just that much stronger.

Further studies by Zhou (2011) suggest that during phases 4, 5, 6, and 7, the MJO has a strong influence on above (below) normal temperatures and precipitation anomalies over the eastern (western) United States, while in phases 8 and 1 this pattern reverses. Conversely, two weeks after the MJO passes through phases 4, 5, and 6, there is a trough over the East Coast and anomalously cold temperatures.

Here is the paper it is from seems to fit the idea as we are moving into 8 and eventually 1.

https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/...lay_thesis.docx


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 8 2018, 08:46 PM
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This is one part that gets me is when we see the final warming or was the event we already saw the final warming? How do we go about seeing the ending of the vortex at least in the beginning we see the cooling begin and circulation tighten up. I know that the vortex is still essentially there just at a weakened state when it is over the summer but what is the tell tale sign of the ending? I feel we are close if it hasnt happened already and another year of strat discussion just about done.

Thanks again for posting images and thoughts for the discussion. I know its not as exciting as short term weather but it is interesting to see the interactions occur and how they evolve. Hope to be back for next year on this topic.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 8 2018, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 8 2018, 08:46 PM) *
This is one part that gets me is when we see the final warming or was the event we already saw the final warming? How do we go about seeing the ending of the vortex at least in the beginning we see the cooling begin and circulation tighten up. I know that the vortex is still essentially there just at a weakened state when it is over the summer but what is the tell tale sign of the ending? I feel we are close if it hasnt happened already and another year of strat discussion just about done.

Thanks again for posting images and thoughts for the discussion. I know its not as exciting as short term weather but it is interesting to see the interactions occur and how they evolve. Hope to be back for next year on this topic.

You'll know when it's the final warming/death of the PV. The zonals reverse and the Stratospheric PV weakens (i.e., heights rise). Not sure if you've ever looked at the 10mb heights in the warm season, but there's really not much of a low pressure. The "final warming" marks the beginning of the process to that point.

Looking at GFS and Euro, it hasn't happened yet and isn't happening in the next 10-15 days. It typically happens in late March or early April.

I don't recall if it's always a literal Stratospheric warming event, or if it's just a gradual warming.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 8 2018, 10:57 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 11 2018, 02:19 AM
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I believe what Euro is showing by day 10 might be the final warming. Zonals reverse and heights begin to rise.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 11 2018, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 9 2018, 12:53 AM) *
You'll know when it's the final warming/death of the PV. The zonals reverse and the Stratospheric PV weakens (i.e., heights rise). Not sure if you've ever looked at the 10mb heights in the warm season, but there's really not much of a low pressure. The "final warming" marks the beginning of the process to that point.

Looking at GFS and Euro, it hasn't happened yet and isn't happening in the next 10-15 days. It typically happens in late March or early April.

I don't recall if it's always a literal Stratospheric warming event, or if it's just a gradual warming.


Awesome yea I usually take a break from anywhere in here in the late spring and summer when the weather is nice. Ill still check on for a severe weather event or possible tropical. Ill have to take a look then and saw what you are referencing via Euro.


--------------------
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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 11 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 11 2018, 02:23 PM) *
Awesome yea I usually take a break from anywhere in here in the late spring and summer when the weather is nice. Ill still check on for a severe weather event or possible tropical. Ill have to take a look then and saw what you are referencing via Euro.

I'm cautious about this being the final warming because it's relatively early... but with how weak the PV has been, it wouldn't take much to destroy the PV anyway.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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NorEaster07
post Apr 2 2018, 04:27 PM
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https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/980917493626580992

"There are a few cool things going on in this plot. First, the polar vortex (see the winds at 10mb) is (barely) hanging in there. Average final warming date since 1979 is April 14. (1/3)"

"Secondly, look at the bottom panel. The wave fluxes into the stratosphere completely shut off after the SSW. So while the stratosphere is influencing the troposphere after that date, it's no longer receiving input from the troposphere. (2/3)"

"Finally, note heat fluxes (middle panel). Even though EP fluxes are turned off, there are still substantial heat fluxes after SSW. It's been noted in studies that heat fluxes can occur *because* of SSW, rather than forcing SSW (though they do that too). @SjobergJeremiah (3/3)"

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NorEaster07
post Jun 8 2018, 01:24 PM
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I keep forgetting where to put Solar Stuff or if there's a thread. I looked and didn't find.

Since it has connections with the stratosphere/QBO I guess I'll put in here for now. Wonder if these means longer negative QBO & NAO periods.

QUOTE
Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast. The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May, 2018 is about 15; however, the actual monthly values have been lower. Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? Leading solar and space science experts will convene a meeting in the coming years and attempt to predict solar cycle 25.


https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-...coming-forecast

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