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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Aug 22 2018, 08:06 PM
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from NOAA http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php

...CAT 4 Hurricane Lane is moving in a N/NE direction to the south and east of the Big Island of Hawaii...
forecasts take the storm dangerously close to the Islands...Hurricane and TS warnings are up...some forecasts predict upwards of 18 inches of rain and near 80 mph winds as Lane moves by the edges of the islands!
Attached File  rb_l.jpg ( 96.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


steering winds make this a dicey proposition...will the ridge projected to force it west turn it sooner or later?
Coriolis forces are already trying to "re-curve" this storm into a closer position off the west coast of Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 698.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


...as for "Sunny" California...our high is still displaced (somewhat) to the west of "normal"...large onshore push of low clouds all week with the slow passage of Low Pressure to the north...foggy coast...cool to warm inland... wink.gif
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 252.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looks to remain cooler all week...Lane will be passing near the island of Oahu Friday...TS or still a Hurricane?

This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 28 2018, 06:51 PM


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idecline
post Aug 28 2018, 06:48 PM
Post #282




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...one of the 'cooler' month's of August we have had around these parts...continued onshore push... >normal highs
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 707.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this weather looks to continue for awhile...especially with our 'mis-placed' high pressure again well to the West...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 262K ) Number of downloads: 0


...meanwhile as Hawaii tries to clean up from Hurricane Lane...the tropical Eastern Pacific is sending out more.
Attached File  rb_l.jpg ( 121.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Tropical Storm Miriam and now Depression 16
8/28/2018 5:25:00 PM
In the far western part of the East Pacific basin, Tropical Storm Miriam is located 1295 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This tropical cyclone has run into a ribbon of strong vertical wind shear and as a result the lower level circulation center is northwest of the intense showers and thunderstorms off to the east and southeast. Miriam has weakened slightly as a result of this strong shear. Once the shear drops off Miriam will still have time to strengthen as it moves over very warm water and moist, unstable air. These favorable conditions should cause Miriam to become a hurricane later tomorrow or tomorrow night only if the shear drops off. Miriam will pose no direct threat to land over at least the next five days, but large ocean swells generated by Miriam may cause higher surf along the east-facing coastlines of Hawaii toward the end of this week.

Tropical depression 16 is about 410 miles to the south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The newly formed tropical depression is moving west northwest at 10 mph. Tropical Depression 16 will be moving over warm water and through an environment of low vertical wind shear and sufficient moist unstable air. These favorable environmental conditions should support intensification into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. It will then take the name Norman. The tropical cyclone will intensify further and should become a hurricane Thursday. Norman to be, should move on a mostly westerly course for the next 5-7 days. This will take the developing tropical storm away from the west coast of Mexico. At this point current information suggests this system will be no direct threat to land for at least the next 5-7 days.

Lane is a tropical depression and continues to move away from Hawaii. A combination of drier stable air and very strong vertical wind shear will continue to weaken the system and it will likely become a remnant non-tropical low pressure area tonight or early tomorrow.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 29 2018, 06:44 PM
Post #283




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...interesting day...70's all over the Bay Area...even parts of San Francisco were warmer than expected...
still cooler than average inland...looks like some tropical moisture bands will roll across the area tonight...giving us a pretty sunset...doubt that there is enough lift and instability for any precipitation...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 721.78K ) Number of downloads: 0

...meanwhile in the tropical Eastern Pacific it looks as if both Miriam and Norman are both now Hurricanes...only CAT1 at this point...Miriam is well south and east of Hawaii, and has been getting some shear to keep it from intensifying...it should insensify briefly before being pulled to the NW...going to the east of the Hawaiian chain...Norman is going to intensify as it moves west...still a long way from Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.18MB ) Number of downloads: 0

...it will be awhile before we know the ultimate outcome of Norman...some tropical energy may still reach Hawaii later in September(IMHO)...the 'dis-placed' high may direct another storm (if this pattern continues)...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 30 2018, 07:58 PM
Post #284




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...same old pattern through the weekend...just a bit cooler right along the coast...with warmer inland temps.
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 742.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

...Hurricane Miriam is being pulled apart well east of Hawaii...Hurricane Norman is already quite spiffy...a CAT4...!
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.18MB ) Number of downloads: 0

...a bit of moisture is being brought up into California...the remnants of Miriam should give us some also...Norman is going nicely...let's see how long he lasts...he is forecast to head west and lose intensity as it moves towards the Hawaiian Island chain...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 5 2018, 08:47 PM
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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 680.57K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.21MB ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Olivia, a Category 2 hurricane, is currently centered about 960 miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Olivia is expected to remain a hurricane over the next few days. However, Olivia will pose no direct impact to land through Sunday. Beyond Sunday Olivia is expected to move on a west to west northwest course. This could take Olivia close enough to the Hawaiian islands to bring some wind and rain around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Since the exact track Olivia will take is difficult to determine at this time, the amount of rain and wind generated over the Islands from Olivia is also uncertain at this time. Residents and interests on the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the movement of Olivia this weekend and early next week.


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 10 2018, 08:36 PM
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...ummm...Olivia is "only" a tropical storm...going to cross E-W across the Hawaiian Islands...nasty...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 717.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

...our weather in SF Bay Area remains fairly cool for early September...with only 90's far inland...60's, 70's near coast and bays...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 263.05K ) Number of downloads: 0

...as tropical storm moves across the Hawaiian Islands...North Carolina coast will be pummeled by dangerous Hurricane Florence...a CAT4 storm at this time...the wind field and storm surge will be widespread...also continued rainfall from the storm will make flooding possible from inland rainfall runoff towards a possibly already flooded coastline... blink.gif ...this could be a terrible event for the mid-Atlantic area...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 11 2018, 05:14 PM
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...cooling will continue after today as feature from the north will depress high pressure...subtle change in flow
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 693.66K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we are 'stuck' in a cool late summer pattern...the stratus layer is determining our winds and overcast layers

...Olivia is going to cross the Hawaiian Island chain in the next 24 hours as a Tropical Storm...water vapor shows a lot of disorganization...along with shear pulling away some the higher cloudtops...still a lot of rain to be had...
Tropics are still very active... blink.gif
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.14MB ) Number of downloads: 0


...not to mention Florence and her CAT4 continue to bear down on Carolina region heading for landfall...



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 17 2018, 08:11 PM
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...howdy... cool.gif
...the "exciting" weather out here in California is making the front page...??? ...not... ...Carolina's...yes! dry.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 732.48K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we are in the midst of a sudden cooler regime...it hints a bit of Fall...the days are getting shorter and the sun angle lower...mornings have been cool.with the marine layer and fog cooling us even inland into low 50's and high 40's at night...it looks as if a warm-up is in store by the end of the week...with 80's and 90's in the valleys, warmer as you get farther from the Bay and coastline...here is OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 248.89K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a small low pressure system is to our north by Friday morning which should 'pump up' our ridge...giving a little more sunshine ...even at the coast we should get decent sunshine part of the day...is our weather going to warm up for awhile? ...quite often the Bay Area gets some of it's hottest weather during September into early October...the onshore 'push' starts to wane...and quite often fall heat waves occur during periods of "Off-shore Flow"...it can even reach high 90's to 100's along the immediate coastline ...of course, this creates 'high fire danger' so most of us don't really wish for a strong gradient that creates high winds...just a nice warm fall would be good...plus it is often the case that we have very little rainfall until late October...especially in 'possible' El Nino years...(another dry year is not what we need, a wet rainy season(Oct.-Mar.) is preferred... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Sep 18 2018, 08:38 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 18 2018, 08:37 PM
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...AccuWeather...special report US Weather by idee... laugh.gif
Attached File  isawvchpac.gif ( 789.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this is the WV view of the CONUS...showing drier air in the yellows into reds and moister air as greens...
...warming a bit into Thursday across California...a large outbreak of monsoon flow will roar into AZ and NM spreading heavy rains for the next few days...severe weather may occur into the Plains Wed./Thu. and then into Great Lakes and NorthEast as a front moves quickly across the northern tier...possible flooding rain into TX/OK into the weekend also as the moist air from Mexico is brought north...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 747.32K ) Number of downloads: 0

California is staying dry for awhile...the remains of front may drag through with associated wind shifts...warming a bit by Thursday with near normal temperatures...no big changes out west as HP rules...


This post has been edited by idecline: Sep 18 2018, 08:41 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 24 2018, 08:44 PM
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...um...hello...warm to hot inland the next couple of days...coast even maybe into 70's as fog regime wanes...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 695.08K ) Number of downloads: 0

...warm afternoons so typical of California early fall weather...low sun angle and still air let valleys get toasty...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 269.55K ) Number of downloads: 0

...jet stays well north of our area...tropical small low is spinning under the influence of huge high pressure that still sits offshore...might get some high clouds next few days...makes for wonderful sunsets and have some clouds that are not stratus layer related... dry.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 25 2018, 05:48 PM
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...warm in the SF Bay Area today...should keep getting warmer through Wednesday into Thursday...the marine layer is squashed down allowing areas away from the coast to enjoy 80's and 90's in the late afternoon...the evenings have been nice until late, when temperatures drop into the 50's and 40's(it is late September).Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 662.84K ) Number of downloads: 0

By Saturday the tail of a front will drag across the Bay Area, with some moisture perhaps falling in the extreme North Bay...doubtful in the SF area and south...the placement of our offshore high pressure may a let a system drop down next week as we have entered fall and the jet looks to carve out deeper troughs...
Attached File  isaeepac.gif ( 986.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Tropical Storm Rosa southwest of Mexico
9/25/2018 4:30:00 PM
A broad area of low pressure that AccuWeather has been monitoring over the last couple of days has become better organized and is now Tropical Storm Rosa. This system will move over warm waters and through an area of low wind shear. Further strengthening is likely through the end of the week and this system is expected to become a hurricane later Thursday. As this system moves even more to the north this weekend, it will move over progressively cooler waters. It is too early to know exactly where the system will track, but there is the potential it can eventually move into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States early next week.

We are watching another area of low pressure well to the southeast of Hawaii. There is some potential that this system will become more organized later this week as it moves westward.By AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg

OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 275.46K ) Number of downloads: 0

OPC has a small little low pressure system offshore as of Sat/12z...a lot of energy looks to be winding up into successive strong low pressure systems well out in the Pacific Ocean...will these be the first of significant perturbations in the atmosphere that start breaking down our HP?...will these storms create some weather 'downstream' in the CONUS?... huh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Sep 25 2018, 06:04 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 26 2018, 07:49 PM
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...another nice early fall day in the SF Bay Area...warm to hot towards Livermore and Concord in the Tri-Valley area...North and South Bay Valleys(i.e. San Jose and Santa Rosa) not as hot today...already getting cooling breezesAttached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.82K ) Number of downloads: 0

...as noted yesterday...a small bit of tropical high clouds are being slung across our area...another great sunset?
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 269.4K ) Number of downloads: 0

...multiple lows in the North Eastern Pacific Ocean are gathering strength...precipitation may reach as far south as Northern California early next week... unsure.gif
...Meanwhile...Rosa has become a CAT1 hurricane off the Manzanillo coast of Mexico...strengthening...CONUS may see moisture injected into the SouthWest from this storm next week...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.27MB ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Hurricane Rosa southwest of Mexico; Watching a couple other areas for development
9/26/2018 3:40:00 PM
Rosa continues to strengthen rapidly and is located about 500 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Additional strengthening will take place through the end of this week as the hurricane moves over warm waters and through an area of low wind shear.

As this system moves even more to the north this weekend, it will move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause Rosa to begin to weaken by the end of the weekend into early next week. By the middle of next week, some of the moisture associated with Rosa could be drawn northeastward into the southwestern United States.

Also in the East Pacific, we are watching an area of low pressure currently several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern coast of Mexico. This feature will track west-northwest over the next few days, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. Some development of this feature may occur by this weekend or early next week as it is located in a zone of warm water and fairly low wind shear.

Finally, in the central Pacific, we are monitoring an area of low pressure around 1,100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This low may develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days as it tracks steadily off to the west.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski and updated by Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 1 2018, 08:20 PM
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...nice day today...clouds from offshore disturbance are streaming over our area...light showers might occur in the North Bay Area...tomorrow will be similar with small chances for rain in the Bay Area...60's and 70's highs
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 751.91K ) Number of downloads: 0

...several small bands of semi-tropical cloudiness are forecast to give chances for rain into Wednesday...to our south, remnants of Tropical Storm Rosa are sending moisture into the deserts of California and the Southwest.
...in the tropical Central Pacific CAT5 Hurricane Walaka is to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands...
Attached File  rbtop0_lalo.gif ( 194.03K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Rosa approaching the Baja Peninsula; Walaka a Category 5; Sergio also in the Pacific
10/1/2018 11:45:00 PM
Tropical Storm Rosa will continue to slowly weaken as the system moves northward across cooler ocean waters. Rosa's forward speed will increase over the next 24-36 hours as it interacts with an upper-level low. Rosa will initially make landfall across northern Baja California Monday evening, perhaps as a tropical storm, bringing flooding rain and gusty winds to Baja California with heavy rainfall streaming across Sonora, and Arizona through Monday night and Tuesday.

Rosa's deep tropical moisture will expand into Southern California, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado by Tuesday. This moisture will produce heavy rain across these areas and pose a serious flood threat. Flash flooding and mudslides can be expected across northern Mexico and the Southwest United States, especially across desert areas that typically receive very little rainfall. Roads and railways may become washed out due to the heavy rainfall and resultant flooding.

Also in the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Sergio is centered almost 500 miles southwest of the Mexican coastline. Sergio will intensify as it moves westward through a zone of warm water and light wind shear. Sergio will not directly impact any landmasses at this time. However, rough surf and rip currents are likely along the Mexican coastlines and southern Baja Peninsula over the next several days. We anticipate Sergio to become a major hurricane later this week.

In the central Pacific basin, Walaka is now a Category 5 hurricane located several hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Walaka may intensify further over the next 12-24 hours before gradually losing some intensity later in the week. Direct impacts are not expected from Walaka, but enhanced surf is likely across the south- and west-facing beaches over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins

Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.2MB ) Number of downloads: 0

...Rosa is being pulled apart as the moisture streams into the SouthWest...Sergio is set to be a hurricane very soon...OPC 48Hr:Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 282.86K ) Number of downloads: 0



This post has been edited by idecline: Oct 1 2018, 08:23 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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idecline
post Oct 2 2018, 08:16 PM
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...rain hit North and East Bay this morning...with lack of diurnal heating it appears rain is over until tomorrow
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 729.64K ) Number of downloads: 0

...South Bay and points east may be focus of pop-up storms tomorrow as system glides by to our west...
Meanwhile as Sergio turns into decent hurricane, Walaka now a CAT4 storm will slide just to the west of Hawaiian Island chain, bringing high waves and some winds and rain...
Attached File  rbtop0_lalo.gif ( 170.05K ) Number of downloads: 0

...and Sergio now a hurricane is heading into warmer waters and will strengthen before losing some momentum late week...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.2MB ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Rosa inland over Sonora; Walaka a Category 4; Sergio stronger in the Pacific
10/2/2018 9:00:00 PM
Rosa is now a tropical rainstorm over northwestern Mexico with heavy rainfall spreading into the southwestern United States. Rosa's forward speed will increase over the next 24 hours as it interacts with an upper-level low, and it will lose definition as a trackable entity.

Rosa's deep tropical moisture will move across Arizona, western New Mexico, southern Utah and southwestern Colorado through tonight. Locally heavy rain will continue in these areas and pose a serious flood threat, especially across desert areas that typically receive very little rainfall. Roads and railways may become washed out due to the heavy rainfall and resultant flooding.

Also in the East Pacific, Sergio is now a major hurricane and is centered about 900 miles south-southwest of Baja California. Sergio will continue to intensify as it moves westward through a zone of warm water and light wind shear. It is not out of the question that Sergio reaches Category 5 intensity before wind shear and drier air affect the system later in the week. Sergio will not directly impact any landmasses at this time; however, rough surf and rip currents are likely along the Mexican coast over the next several days.

In the central Pacific basin, Walaka is now a Category 4 hurricane located several hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Walaka may reintensify some over the next 12-24 hours before gradually losing some intensity later in the week. Direct impacts are not expected from Walaka, but enhanced surf is likely across the south- and west-facing beaches over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins


This post has been edited by idecline: Oct 2 2018, 08:34 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 3 2018, 08:43 PM
Post #295




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...finally a few showers in the South Bay
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 725.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

...and tropics still active...
QUOTE
Walaka a Category 4 west of Hawaii; Hurricane Sergio a major hurricane well away from land
10/3/2018 4:40:00 PM
In the East Pacific, Sergio is a major hurricane with winds of 125 mph. The hurricane is centered about 845 miles southwest of of the southern tip of Baja California. Sergio has the opportunity to intensify further as it moves northwest then west northwest through an area of warm water and low wind shear. Sergio should not be a threat to land through at least early next week. Hwever, rough surf and rip currents are likely along the Mexican coast over the next several days.

In the Central Pacific basin, Walaka remains a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 hurricane located well west of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is moving almost due north at about 21 mph. On this course the tropical cyclone will bring tropical storm force and hurricane force winds to several small islands and atolls within the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument during the rest of today, tonight and during the day Thursday. Most of these islands are uninhabited but a popular area for boating and scuba diving. So, all interests are encouraged to stay clear of this area through at least Friday. Walaka will gradually weaken starting on Wednesday and continue to weaken through the rest of this week and through the upcoming weekend as it continues to move north then northeast. Direct impacts are not expected from Walaka, but enhanced surf is likely across the south- and west-facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.13MB ) Number of downloads: 0

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 270.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 9 2018, 08:12 PM
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...nice weather again today...a little cooler nights due to shorter daylight hours and marine influence...60's, 70's, and 80's well inland...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 714.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

...as a few perturbations in the jet stream move by to our north, we will cool abit late week...with a high pressure building back in for the beginning of next week...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 264.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and back to the tropics...a CAT3 hurricane Michael is heading for the Florida Panhandle...arriving Wednesday as at least a strong storm...and Sergio is heading north off of Baja California...sending waves into SoCal beaches...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.12MB ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Sergio to strike Baja California late week
10/9/2018 5:35:00 PM
Sergio is steadily weakening as it tracks northeastward toward Baja California. Sergio is now a tropical storm and will continue on a northeast track until making landfall late Thursday night or Friday morning. Heavy rainfall from Sergio will spread across Baja California, northwestern Mexico and eventually across parts of the southwestern United States late this week into this weekend and lead to flash flooding. Sergio will transition to a tropical rainstorm as the remaining circulation moves into the southwestern United States over the weekend.

The rest of the East Pacific and the Central Pacific remain relatively quiet. No new tropical development is expected across either basin for the rest of this week. There is a low chance for tropical development off the west coast of Central America early next week as another large, counter-clockwise turning wind pattern sets up over Central America. This large gyre could help spin up a tropical system in the Caribbean and near the west coast of Central America next week.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 10 2018, 07:36 PM
Post #297




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...CAT4 Hurricane Michael made landfall near Panama Beach and Mexico Beach, FL today with destructive winds and storm surges...water rise was as much as 8-10 feet in some coastal areas which caused widespread flooding...not to mention torrential downpours kicked creeks and rivers beyond flood stage...structural damaging winds tore roofs off houses, collapsed carports and sent objects flying into the air as dangerous projectiles...damage will be significant as the 3rd strongest (in pressure 919mb) hurricane to hit the CONUS and strongest ever(in modern times) to hit the Florida Panhandle...it is now into Georgia with less strength(but still dangerous) as it heads towards South Carolina, then then east North Carolina regions tomorrow...
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QUOTE
Hurricane Michael weakening as it starts to accelerate to the northeast
10/10/2018 8:15:00 PM
Hurricane Michael continues to steadily weaken as it moves to the northeast at 17 mph.

Michael will move north-northeast then more to the northeast into southwest then central Georgia tonight, then across the Carolinas on Thursday. Michael will weaken to a tropical storm early Thursday morning and should remain a tropical storm during its passage over the Carolinas and off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. Interaction with an eastward-moving cold front and strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Michael to transition to a strong non-tropical storm system during Friday, which will then race northeast across the North Atlantic over the weekend.

Michael has produced a large and very damaging storm surge that will gradually subside tonight and tomorrow. Michael will bring a swath of 4-8 inches of rain, with AccuWeather StormMax™ of 12 inches from northern Florida into central Georgia and South Carolina. This rain will cause flooding and could wash out roadways. In addition to the rain, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will occur, especially across the western Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia along and east of where Michael tracks.By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


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...our weather in the Bay Area will remain a little cooler than average as an onshore push, coupled with a 'dry' low pressure to our east, will keep us cooler and breezy, with marine layer intrusions well inland...by the weekend , high pressure should allow for warming in inland valleys...

QUOTE
Sergio to strike Baja California late week
10/10/2018 5:20:00 PM
Tropical Storm Sergio will steadily weaken as it tracks northeastward toward Baja California. Sergio will continue on a northeast track until making landfall late Thursday night or Friday morning. Heavy rainfall from Sergio will spread across Baja California, northwestern Mexico and eventually across parts of the southwestern United States late this week into this weekend and lead to flash flooding. Sergio will transition to a tropical rainstorm as the remaining circulation moves into the southwestern United States over the weekend.





--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Yesterday, 07:47 PM
Post #298




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...nice fall day again in the SF Bay Area...light breezes, warm afternoon sun...cooling quickly after sundown into low 50's to mid-40's at night...
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nice with small variations in temperatures through the weekend...big storm is winding up in the Aleutians...
...jet stream looks to start defining a "winter-like" pattern...as the RRWT sets up its "Merry-Go-Round in the Northern Hemisphere
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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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