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> October 28-30 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm, Last minute Forecasts - Observations
Undertakerson
post Oct 21 2017, 08:11 AM
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Time to start another thread for the second of the two storms next week, in our region. As many already know, I have high confidence in outcome when the signal from the Typhoon Rule is such that it is. Here is the GFS depiction of Lan just before it recurves and heads toward the Bering Sea region.

Attached Image


To recap, for those who may not know, the Typhoon Rule (TR) holds that when a typhoon recurves prior to or just at landfall with Japan, the most typical result is for this storm to use the outflow process, to buckle the jet stream. This, in turn, pumps the heights downstream of the system and can/usually does raise the PNA across the continent, allowing for colder air to dislodge into a (usually) long wave trough across the east.

Additionally, the storm from mid week next week (covered in MaineJay's thread) sets the table for the resultant trough to have an easier time "carving" (digging) deep enough to reinforce the cooler/cold air.

WPC, in the extended disco, has this to say.

QUOTE
FARTHER UPSTREAM THERE IS STEADILY IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN
PRINCIPLE FOR NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE LOWER
48 AFTER MIDWEEK BUT WITH A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE LEADING SURFACE REFLECTION
. BY THU-SAT THE MOST PRONOUNCED
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO IS TOWARD
SHARPER/WESTWARD TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO A MUCH
SHARPER/NORTHWARD EXTENDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS TREND IS
EVIDENT IN BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM BERING SEA SYSTEM THAT
REPRESENTS THE EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION OF TYPHOON LAN
. THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR THE CLUSTER OF 12Z
GFS-GEFS/ECMWF-ECMWF MEAN VERSUS THE 18Z GFS THAT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CONUS TROUGH. NOTE THAT WHILE THERE IS
DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT, ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW SOME VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM SOME
MEMBERS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM CURRENT CONSENSUS.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

Given that discussion, it's easy to understand how the two camps come to differing solutions. The GFS allowing for the EC trough, while the Euro emphasizes Western trough - allowing heights to rise in the E.

Euro

Attached Image


GFS - the 6z ups the bid to the Euro and goes even deeper

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And, it's not only upstream that we have to watch. Looking to the south, we see a parcel of tropical energy bringing deeper PWAT values towards the S US. While this influence does not, directly, affect the storm in our region - I believe it does make the higher PWAT and moisture "more available" to the long wave trough and whatever shortwave it may spawn at the base of the digging trough.
Attached Image


And, finally, looking downstream where we have, what I believe is, a Rex Block in the Atlantic (how strong this is - subject to interpretation). So we have at least some "slow down" in the "now buckled" flow.


Attached Image


Attached Image

Amazingly, that block has been consistently signaled in most GFS runs over the past 5 days, and a few Euro Op runs, TBH.

All that being said, and all things considered, I am going GFS with this system. After looping the Euro v. GFS, as the frame times relate to the eventuality of Lan's course, I believe the GFS has the correct idea due to that model better respecting the overall tenants of the TR.

That would lead to this, or something like this...
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Total Accum does include some from Round One, but 24 hour view does not do the whole region justice. But you get the idea, wet begets wet.

To alter an ongoing pattern, it takes a potent system (Lan) and supporting players (blocking, tropical tap). I believe we just might have that with this potential.

Closing this opening post as it's one of the longest I've probably ever done and my at-thur-it-is is flaring up. laugh.gif
Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 28 2017, 03:20 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Oct 21 2017, 08:46 AM
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Waxed poetic UTS

Nicely done


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PoconoSnow
post Oct 21 2017, 11:24 AM
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Three parcels of vorts

One even tropical

This looks to be some system come end of month


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PoconoSnow
post Oct 21 2017, 11:26 AM
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Undertakerson
post Oct 21 2017, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Oct 21 2017, 12:26 PM) *

Should be a good warm up to the winter season. This is far from settled and the nuances of each piece will probably change here and there.


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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 21 2017, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 21 2017, 09:11 AM) *
Time to start another thread for the second of the two storms next week, in our region. As many already know, I have high confidence in outcome when the signal from the Typhoon Rule is such that it is. Here is the GFS depiction of Lan just before it recurves and heads toward the Bering Sea region.

Very nice right up buddy, well done sir!
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 21 2017, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 21 2017, 01:05 PM) *
Should be a good warm up to the winter season. This is far from settled and the nuances of each piece will probably change here and there.

Yessir, the cards of change are upon us wink.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Oct 21 2017, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 21 2017, 01:05 PM) *
Should be a good warm up to the winter season. This is far from settled and the nuances of each piece will probably change here and there.




Most likely be a good one



Hope we some of these features come wimter

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Oct 21 2017, 05:43 PM


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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 05:23 AM
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A beauty of a discussion from Rausch, on the WPC Extended Discussion desk. I recommend reading in entirety

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VALID 12Z WED OCT 25 2017 - 12Z SUN OCT 29 2017

...OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH THE AGREEABLE IDEA OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER THE LOWER 48 BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TWO UNCERTAINTIES
WITHIN THIS PATTERN WILL INVOLVE A LEADING EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY
AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ASSOC SURFACE EVOLUTION.
THEN BY LATER IN THE PERIOD FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES ORIGINATING OVER
THE PACIFIC HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT MEDIUM-SCALE DETAILS
EVEN IF THE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN ENDS UP PREVAILING
FROM THE MULTI-DAY MEAN PERSPECTIVE.

THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL EASTERN TROUGH WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY
CONTAINING AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW FOR A TIME, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD AFFECT NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY
WED-THU. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY INVOLVE TIMING AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND RECENT CMC RUNS
STRAY FASTER THAN THE MAJORITY CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE GFS/UKMET
RUNS AND GEFS/ECMWF MEANS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS QUESTIONABLE ALOFT AS
IT PULLS OFF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH TO FORM A
WESTERN ATLANTIC SYSTEM THAT ENDS UP WHERE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE HAS
HIGH PRESSURE BY FRI. IN ADDITION TO REPRESENTING CONSENSUS, THE
GFS CLUSTER MAINTAINS REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM PRIOR CYCLE.

ADJUSTMENTS IN THE 12Z ECMWF FROM THE MORE EXTREME 00Z/21 RUN HAVE
YIELDED SOMEWHAT LESS SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THE TRAILING CENTRAL
U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. CURRENTLY THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION, WITH SOUTHWESTERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR NEAR A NORTHERN TIER-UPPER GREAT LAKES
PATH WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WEST/PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE EAST. WITH THE 18Z GFS (AS WELL AS
NEW 00Z RUN) LEANING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD FOR THE
SURFACE LOW, AN AVERAGE OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS/ECMWF
MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK.

WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD
REGARDING POTENTIAL MOISTURE FEED OR EVEN TROPICAL ACTIVITY (IN
THE CASE OF THE CMC RUNS AND 00Z UKMET) EMANATING FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA. THE ENVELOPE
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH GFS RUNS SHOWING THE
MOST PRONOUNCED INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER FL WHILE ECMWF-BASED
GUIDANCE THE LEAST. GEFS MEANS ARE STILL BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES. SOME DEGREE OF COMPROMISE LOOKS BEST GIVEN THAT
EVENTUAL APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY HELP TO PULL UP
SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE THAN FORECAST BY ECMWF RUNS.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST, GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THEIR
MEANS HAVE STABILIZED OR SLIGHTLY FURTHERED PRIOR TRENDS TOWARD A
VERY STRONG EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING BY THU-FRI AND DRIFTING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST, DRIFTING INLAND TO ABOUT 120W BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO TO BE CONSIDERED AS
MOST LIKELY, HOWEVER CMC RUNS/CMC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE UKMET
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAMPENING/REBUILDING CYCLE FOR THE
OVERALL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE.
THE LESS LIKELY CMC/UKMET SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
RESHUFFLING OF SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER THE LOWER 48 BY NEXT
WEEKEND. ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD DEVELOPS FOR AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH THE MEANS BRING TO ABOUT 140W BY DAY 7 SUN.
SOME INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE FEATURE CLOSER TO THE
WEST COAST. SUCH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE.

IN ORDER TO ACCOMMODATE CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY OR INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION DEPENDING ON THE REGION, THE UPDATED FORECAST
INCORPORATED COMPONENTS OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF, 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF
MEAN, AND 12Z UKMET FOR DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI. DUE TO ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC 12Z ECMWF WEIGHT WAS MINIMIZED FRI ONWARD WHILE
ENSEMBLE MEANS GAINED MAJORITY WEIGHT AFTER EARLY FRI TO DOWNPLAY
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE INITIAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO NEW ENGLAND AROUND WED-THU AS A SLOW MOVING
WAVY FRONT ENHANCES ATLANTIC INFLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY ON
WED. THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL GENERATE
ONE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MID-LATE WEEK, WITH FURTHER AREAS OF PRECIP NEAR NORTHERN TIER LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO
THE EAST. TEMPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. DEPENDING ON EXACT
DETAILS/TIMING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOME LOCATIONS
FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD FRI-SUN. FARTHER SOUTHEAST THERE IS
STILL BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY
REACH FLORIDA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

VERY WARM TEMPS OF AT LEAST 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA AND CONDITIONS THAT MAY FAVOR WILDFIRE RISK
SHOULD MODERATE AFTER MIDWEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH TEMPS 10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WED WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S.. EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
RECORD WARM LOWS ON WED, MUCH OF THE EAST WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE TO START THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

RAUSCH


GFS getting kind of eager with the depiction of snowfall along the Appalachians/ Upper OH Valley with this one.
Attached Image

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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 05:33 AM
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Also looking like there will be a distinct and sharp temperature contrast with the front. Would not be shocked to see SPC issue a SR.

It's these situations that produce incredible dynamically driven, winds/rain (snow) as convective parameters such as lapse rates, helicity, shear (shown as crossover) are at their "best".

60's to 40's in <6hrs, in the middle of the day

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 22 2017, 05:34 AM
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MaineJay
post Oct 22 2017, 06:23 AM
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ECMWF looks like it's a day or two slower than the GFS. Also draws some moisture from "Philippe". ph34r.gif

PWATs


Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 06:27 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 22 2017, 07:23 AM) *
ECMWF looks like it's a day or two slower than the GFS. Also draws some moisture from "Philippe". ph34r.gif

PWATs


Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

That's what I was thinking too, MJ - the Euro is not so much different as it is slower with the progression.

Contrasting to its run 3 cycles ago, the Euro is handling the recurvature of Lan much better (read as: showing a track and evolution as one might typically expect - as opposed to the squashed version it had previously)
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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 06:30 AM
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Actually, the GFS timing has also slowed - moving the system across more towards the 29th. I might tweak start date.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 22 2017, 06:40 AM
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The first "Phasing" of the season? Nice discussion


QUOTE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
728 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Ensemble solutions have moved toward the slower operational
models for the onset of showers on Monday. This slow down is in
response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower
Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing
height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward
progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep
moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes northward between
the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher
PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain
shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the
afternoon or evening.

As the southern 500mb low slowly heads northward on Monday,
northern stream energy will quickly dive southwestward from the
Northern Plains toward the Upper Midwest. By late Monday night,
a phasing will occur between the northern and southern energy,
allowing for a rapid intensification of the energy rushing into
the Upper Midwest
. This will lead to an increase in rainfall
rates and coverage just ahead of the upper level system and
along its corresponding surface front. As the upper level
system deepens Monday night, a surface low will develop along
the cold front and move rapidly northeastward over Lake Erie
early Tuesday morning. This should speed up the forward speed of
the cold front meaning the heaviest rain should occur sometime
between 06z and 18z on Tuesday.

Trough will cutoff Tuesday afternoon, slowing it`s forward
speed and causing it to lag well behind the exiting surface
front. Much drier and colder air will quickly rotate around the
southern flank of the 500 low, which will precipitate the
development of a large dry slot, ending most of the showers by
Tuesday afternoon.

Much colder air will overspread the region Tuesday afternoon,
which will cause a noticeable decrease in surface temperatures
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MaineJay
post Oct 22 2017, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 22 2017, 07:30 AM) *
Actually, the GFS timing has also slowed - moving the system across more towards the 29th. I might tweak start date.



I'm wondering how the slowness in the ECMWF and it developing "Philippe" are related. 🤔. I guess it's a bit of chicken and egg.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 22 2017, 06:55 AM


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JDClapper
post Oct 22 2017, 09:03 AM
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2pm Sunday to 8am Monday .. nice little cold front. smile.gif Brings back memories of 11/19 last year .. mowing the lawn in shorts and a T-shirt at 1pm, snowing and laying on the grass by 6pm.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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bradjl2009
post Oct 22 2017, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 22 2017, 10:03 AM) *
2pm Sunday to 8am Monday .. nice little cold front. smile.gif Brings back memories of 11/19 last year .. mowing the lawn in shorts and a T-shirt at 1pm, snowing and laying on the grass by 6pm.

Attached Image

This is certainly looking like it's going to take its time going through the region. What extreme temperature differences as well across PA, around 30 and snow in Western PA Sunday morning while mid 60's and dry still in SEPA laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 01:44 PM
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Undertakerson
post Oct 22 2017, 02:09 PM
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Ahoff
post Oct 22 2017, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Oct 22 2017, 11:38 AM) *
This is certainly looking like it's going to take its time going through the region. What extreme temperature differences as well across PA, around 30 and snow in Western PA Sunday morning while mid 60's and dry still in SEPA laugh.gif


I'll take it! Bring it on!
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