Medium/Long Range Winter Discussion, Pattern Forecasts Options

[MrMusic]

I stumbled upon this doing a Google search...Wow, could this guy have been any more wrong? LOL

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...five-wi-1/45220

2012 ended up setting records in virtually every corner of N. America for it's warmth and non-existent winter.
Even this winter will end up above normal for most of the continent, even with the final few weeks being below normal.

If you follow him on twitter you'll understand why it's a shame to see such a passionate, educated forecaster allow politics to interfere with the science of meteorology.

One of the great things about the intern is the ability to go back and hold people to their predictions. This one is incredible in that it was as wrong as humanly possible.

[MrMusic]

00z ECMWF NAO:

[attachment=197438:00zecmwfnao.gif]

West-based NAO:

[attachment=197439:00zecmwfwestnao.gif]

NAO, multi-model:

[attachment=197440:00zallnao.gif]

Interestingly the PNA looks like it may go positive in this timeframe:

[attachment=197441:00zallpna.gif]

It's critical to consider the NAO in conjunction with the other teleconnections for a bigger, better picture of the overall pattern.

Awesome stuff. Thx for posting. If this verifies, it would signal a shift in the pattern, no?

[bigmt]

Awesome stuff. Thx for posting. If this verifies, it would signal a shift in the pattern, no?

The return to neutral NAO values would be helpful but the PNA could signal more ridging in the west and subsequently may reinforce the eastern trough to some extent, although it doesn't look like a particularly strong +PNA at this point.

The deep -AO/NAO have a ways to go yet but every pattern breaks down and it's encouraging to see some signs this one may relent towards the end of the month.

[stuffradio]

I sure hope the PNA goes positive. That means we get ridging over here.

[bigmt]

I wouldn't post a storm without a little support from king Euro, but as bigmt said, anybody can post if they want

Generally speaking, I personally weigh the 'big 3' models something like 50/25/25 (ECMWF/GFS/CMC), although it depends on the sort of pattern we're in - the GFS does a bit better in zonal, progressive patterns but nobody really remembers it cause those patterns usually suck. Maybe something more like 50/20/30 since the Canadian's upgrade but the jury's still out on that. Sometimes the UKMET or the JMA are worth a look but I don't bother a whole lot with them, especially the Japanese model which I think is quite poor most of the time.

By equal measure I would be hesitant to buy into an idea if the Euro had it but neither of the others did. I like to see the Euro and at least one of the other two on board with something before I'm really ready to dive in.

[bigmt]

To address this possible system for early next week again the 12z Euro remains too far south for ON.

Brett has this blurb at the end of his blog update today - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...-friday/8525816

In terms of the late weekend storm, I still feel that the GFS model track is a bit too far to the north with the steady snow getting all the way into southwestern Ontario. I will address this more in detail tomorrow.

[Ottawa blizzard]

I stumbled upon this doing a Google search...Wow, could this guy have been any more wrong? LOL

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...five-wi-1/45220

2012 ended up setting records in virtually every corner of N. America for it's warmth and non-existent winter.
Even this winter will end up above normal for most of the continent, even with the final few weeks being below normal.

If you follow him on twitter you'll understand why it's a shame to see such a passionate, educated forecaster allow politics to interfere with the science of meteorology.

One of the great things about the intern is the ability to go back and hold people to their predictions. This one is incredible in that it was as wrong as humanly possible.

I'm often a critic of JB and the hype he often uses but, in his defence, if you read the article, he said that three of the next four winters could be colder than normal. He isn't the only one who's been thinking this. Take Paul Hudson of the BBC over in the UK who has an excellent blog ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/ ). They are having a near record cold March over there and the second half of this winter in much of the US has been colder than normal.

There is politics on both sides of the climate change issue.

[MrMusic]

I'm often a critic of JB and the hype he often uses but, in his defence, if you read the article, he said that three of the next four winters could be colder than normal. He isn't the only one who's been thinking this. Take Paul Hudson of the BBC over in the UK who has an excellent blog ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/ ). They are having a near record cold March over there and the second half of this winter in much of the US has been colder than normal.

There is politics on both sides of the climate change issue.

totally. It's pretty annoying actually.
I just found this article pretty funny now that we all know how 2012 turned out.

If 3 of the next 5 winters are going to be way colder than normal, it's gonna have to be the next 3 in a row. Last year there was no winter, and now that this winter is over it will be interesting to see which areas (if any) in N. America were below normal. I'm guessing most of the continent was above normal for the season. Even the few areas that were near or below normal, it won't be anything earth-shattering like he was predicting.

[knorthern_knight]

Since it's officially spring, shouldn't we shut this thread down, and move into the spring thread?

[JJ Snowlover]

Since it's officially spring, shouldn't we shut this thread down, and move into the spring thread?

I guess, but it doesnt look anything like spring around here, looking outside and the forecast, I feel like it's the middle of winter here

[newfiebrit]

I guess, but it doesnt look anything like spring around here, looking outside and the forecast, I feel like it's the middle of winter here

It looks like spring here now, few bits of snow remain in deeper/shaded pockets and some very dirty snow banks clinging on though they are greatly reduced, we have sidewalks again. Some days are Spring like others still like full on winter with cold windchill and snow about though is only temporary accumulations, a mix of winter/spring par for the course at this time of year. Hard to believe we haven't had a major snow storm here since I think Feb 22nd...almost a month...quite unusual here, March is heading for a very dry month in terms of snowfall. Tomorrow looks like we will wake up to winter again but it's not going to be much snow or last very long with rain on top and mild after. Are we going to go the whole of March (and last week of Feb) without any significant snowfall?

[puttin]

Oh, still too far south? That didn't stop any other storm thread from being made. I will just watch the thread on the American forum. SE Michigan/SW Ontario are in a good position right now,
I am quite tired of people on this forum forgetting that people live south of London. We aren't all near GTA or Ottawa. And please don't tell me that isn't true. I've been here for years. I know how it is.

So all the posters from south western Ontario I have been imagining adding their storm posts in a thread? And all the maps posted never show south western Ontario? I think everyone here that posts maps tries there best to include the whole province, even Quebec, as best they can. Nothing stoping you from sharing your thoughts... Jump in! Just saying...

[bigmt]

You know winter was back in force this year when...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/0...ay-pileups.html

Alberta saw one of the largest pileups in Canadian history on Thursday. Approximately 85-100 vehicles were involved in the crash, which injured 100 people during a snowstorm.

Here's a look at some of the worst multi-vehicle crashes along Canada's highways this winter:

Kamloops, B.C., Nov. 22, 2012

A multiple-vehicle pileup on the Coquihalla Highway near Kamloops, B.C., involving semi trucks, a bus carrying seniors and numerous cars trapped the seniors on the bus and sent 29 people to hospital. A snowstorm, which caused a white out and slippery roads, was blamed for the crash.

Quebec City, Que., Dec. 17, 2012

Bad weather was blamed for a 27-vehicle pileup on Highway 40 near Quebec City, Que. The crash injured 20 people and one elderly lady was said to be in serious condition. Snow squalls and slippery roads were blamed for the chain-reaction crash.

Oshawa, Ont., Jan. 25, 2013

A 1.5-kilometre stretch of the country’s busiest highway was shut down after an 80-car pileup near Oshawa, Ont. Five people were taken to hospital, two of which were said to have life-threatening injuries. Unfavourable weather and snow squalls were thought to be the cause of the Highway 401 crash.

Woodstock, Ont., Feb. 1, 2013

A 50-car pileup that shut down six kilometres of Highway 401 near Woodstock, Ont., miraculously left drivers and passengers with only minor injuries. Snow squalls were said to be the initial cause of the crash.

Hamilton, Ont., Feb. 28, 2013

A seven-car pileup near Hamilton on Highway 6 injured three people, with one of them sent to hospital suffering serious injuries. Icy conditions were said to be the cause.

Sudbury, Ont., Nov. 5, 2012

One person was killed and four injured on a stretch of Highway 400 near Sudbury, Ont., in a four-vehicle crash. Though terrible, weather conditions weren't considered the cause of the accident.

[blizzardOf96]

Another piece of the PV looks to drop down in the 6-10 day period. With a trough east of Hawaii energy may get fed in which can cause a larger storm to form. Something to watch for in future runs.
 image.jpg ( 525.19K ) Number of downloads: 5

[travis3000]

When will this cold weather ever end??

[Ottawa blizzard]

Another piece of the PV looks to drop down in the 6-10 day period. With a trough east of Hawaii energy may get fed in which can cause a larger storm to form. Something to watch for in future runs.
 image.jpg ( 525.19K ) Number of downloads: 5

When will this cold weather ever end??

I had to laugh when watching Tom Brown's forecast on CFTO this evening when he called for sunshine and 10 degrees on Easter Monday.

This post has been edited by Ottawa blizzard: Mar 25 2013, 07:30 PM