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> March 23-24 Plains Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Enhanced: Forecasts and OBS
jdrenken
post Mar 24 2017, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 01:40 PM) *
You are quick lol


Pales in comparison to your inside hook ups!

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 01:36 PM) *
The visible has been having some issues here and there but when it works and zoomed in it is amazing! I got to work and relieve the person who has been working with goes 16 and he was showing me all sorts of awesome stuff. Here is a blog he set up:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpress.com



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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 02:25 PM
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It is a bit cloudy across the ArkLaTex, but not across the western Gulf a.k.a. 'The Bubbly Bath Water'
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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2017, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 02:25 PM) *
It is a bit cloudy across the ArkLaTex, but not across the western Gulf a.k.a. 'The Bubbly Bath Water'




--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ValpoSnow
post Mar 24 2017, 02:34 PM
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O'Hare just hit 81. A record and only the 10th time ever to occur in March.

I know that isn't severe-related, but it's related to this system so I shared.

Lake front will move through this evening and temps will likely fall 20 degrees in as many minutes.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Mar 24 2017, 03:34 PM) *
O'Hare just hit 81. A record and only the 10th time ever to occur in March.

I know that isn't severe-related, but it's related to this system so I shared.

Lake front will move through this evening and temps will likely fall 20 degrees in as many minutes.

Neat! Thanks for sharing, that's quite warm and an impressive temperature gradient!


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 03:07 PM
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Supercell structures appearing southeast of Wichita, KS. Could even be a left-mover/splitting cells in the southeast portion of the image.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 24 2017, 03:09 PM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 24 2017, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 24 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Pales in comparison to your inside hook ups!


Haha it pays to know people. He was showing me the coverage region and up close images from thunderstorms yesterday. The ongoing convection that has been pounding Peru. Thunderstorms over Puerto Rico as well as off of Miami. So much more but it surely was awesome to see can't wait for it to come out.

Anyways so far many areas across arlatex have been relatively rain cooled. I'm curious to see how things develop into se Texas later. Those in Kansas look awesome I'll have to check them out aloft.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 24 2017, 06:23 PM
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Some thunderstorms developing SE of Chicago

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ValpoSnow
post Mar 24 2017, 07:36 PM
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And the lake front has surged through. Temperature dropped a little.......

This post has been edited by ValpoSnow: Mar 24 2017, 07:38 PM
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ValpoSnow
post Mar 24 2017, 07:50 PM
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And here comes that storm Monger posted earlier.

Lots of lightning and thunder.

Temp down to 45......
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 24 2017, 07:51 PM
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Seems like the cells in SE TX are getting going, HRRR shows that they'll continue for a few hours. Seems like they'll produce some nasty weather. I'm expecting SPC to just maintain the 10%, would be shocked if they upgraded.


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 07:51 PM
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And it begins

CODE
327
WFUS54 KHGX 250049
TORHGX
TXC185-339-471-250115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0025.170325T0049Z-170325T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
749 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
  Southwestern Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 748 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 11 miles east of Anderson, or 19 miles southwest of
  Huntsville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Richards.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9559 3043 9584 3055 9589 3072 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 238DEG 37KT 3053 9580

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 08:12 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 24 2017, 08:51 PM) *
Seems like the cells in SE TX are getting going, HRRR shows that they'll continue for a few hours. Seems like they'll produce some nasty weather. I'm expecting SPC to just maintain the 10%, would be shocked if they upgraded.

Tomato, tamato.

The situation we've got unfolding north of Houston is a cluster of supercells that have developed along a pre-frontal boundary in a region of high low level EHI. This environment will persist through the night and is actually shown to move further on shore, because of strong warm and moist advection off the GoM.

SPC mesoanalysis shows LCL heights of ~750 m coincident with 400 m2/s2 SRH and ~1000 ML CAPE. If activity can stay discrete and sustained, then it's going to be a rough night. I'm happy not to be living down that way tonight.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 24 2017, 08:13 PM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 24 2017, 08:14 PM
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Looked pretty impressive for a short time. Bet it had a funnel about 20 minutes ago

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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 24 2017, 09:19 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Mar 24 2017, 08:36 PM) *
And the lake front has surged through. Temperature dropped a little.......


Wow now that is cool to see.


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ValpoSnow
post Mar 24 2017, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 09:19 PM) *
Wow now that is cool to see.


Cool to experience, too! One of the most dramatic drops I can recall. 20 drops aren't uncommon here through May, but 40 is pretty major.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 25 2017, 02:17 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 09:12 PM) *
Tomato, tamato.

The situation we've got unfolding north of Houston is a cluster of supercells that have developed along a pre-frontal boundary in a region of high low level EHI. This environment will persist through the night and is actually shown to move further on shore, because of strong warm and moist advection off the GoM.

SPC mesoanalysis shows LCL heights of ~750 m coincident with 400 m2/s2 SRH and ~1000 ML CAPE. If activity can stay discrete and sustained, then it's going to be a rough night. I'm happy not to be living down that way tonight.

They actually lowered the tornado probability, justifiably so.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 25 2017, 02:19 AM
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Well the only tornado report thus far has been in Washington, which is rather weird, we will see what they happen to find with daybreak tomorrow and see if they add to the reports/ qualify maybe as a low end tornado across SE TX and LA region.
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Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 25 2017, 02:22 AM
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VBV and weak instability





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 25 2017, 03:01 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 25 2017, 03:22 AM) *
VBV and weak instability





Tall and skinny cape will hurt you its gets them going and then makes it as though it has to rely on other parameters to keep it going. In this case the shear definitely help keep these going, and through the storms creating a temp gradient to allow continuous formation.


Just felt the spark was just not there to create something crazy. Ha and I just happened to look what you guys were referencing VBV.

Found this neat URL on the topic that may help alot of people for hodograph.

Hodo was the most fun but for some reason the hardest for me to wrap around my head when I was in meso.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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