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> Dec 12-14 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Solstice
post Dec 11 2017, 07:07 PM
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Snowfall has commenced in upstate NY.

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 11 2017, 07:08 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 11 2017, 07:17 PM
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virga blizzard here laugh.gif


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Undertakerson
post Dec 11 2017, 07:57 PM
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Couple flurries possible for Lehigh Valley - per HRRR. Might eek out a booker somewhere (<0.25")


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KENNYP2339
post Dec 11 2017, 08:03 PM
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The nice thing is that its 30f outside in Vernon NJ, I'm hopeful that we drop down into the mid 20's tonight here. I'm also thinking that the valley area's that face north are going to be having so cad, so if we can start as snow then transition to light rain we may have a zr issue for the majority of the day.
Fun fact - this time last week we had a cad day, the stage was set Sunday when we had a few showers, the rain stopped and temps dipped into the lower 20's and a heavy frost from the wet soil developed, temps outside the valley rose into the upper 40's & low 50's, including area's above 1000ft in elevation within the township, the sun even came out for an hour or so, but the valley remained fogged over and the temps never got up past 35deg, it was surreal once I crested the mtn and looked down to see heavy fog, it was a natural inversion from the frozen ground being capped.
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JDClapper
post Dec 11 2017, 08:37 PM
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A dozen or so grauple flurries as I pulled up to the house... was a little surprised. Yet, happy.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 5¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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rtcemc
post Dec 11 2017, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 11 2017, 07:17 PM) *
virga blizzard here laugh.gif

I am not a forum rules encyclopedia, but don' t you need precipitation to actually open an obs thread laugh.gif
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bingobobbo
post Dec 11 2017, 08:45 PM
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We had a few flurries here about 45 minutes ago, but then they stopped. The dry slot may have found us--or is it a virga slot?!


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JDClapper
post Dec 11 2017, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Dec 11 2017, 09:45 PM) *
We had a few flurries here about 45 minutes ago, but then they stopped. The dry slot may have found us--or is it a virga slot?!


Sad radar .. but, really not expecting much until near daybreak, and only for an hour or two .. if it snows at all. I get this strange feeling it's going to be dry as a bone, even with pretty much all pro's saying likely 1", maybe 2 if it goes amazingly well.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 5¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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Solstice
post Dec 11 2017, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 11 2017, 08:39 PM) *
I am not a forum rules encyclopedia, but don' t you need precipitation to actually open an obs thread laugh.gif


Erhm... I'm a noobsie but I think the airport was reporting snow... correct me if wrong.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 11 2017, 08:54 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 11 2017, 08:54 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 11 2017, 08:39 PM) *
I am not a forum rules encyclopedia, but don' t you need precipitation to actually open an obs thread laugh.gif



Snowing in Sullivan county for sure

Prolly foot and a half by now. Clapper can likely see the snow capped Appalachian mtns to his east laugh.gif


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telejunkie
post Dec 11 2017, 08:58 PM
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Giddiup...have had a few squalls today, which prior to Saturday amounted to more than all snow so far this season. But currently 24F, DP sitting at 20F...so not too dry out there. Albany has entered the R word into our forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night...but I was expecting that. Still saying a decent little thump of snow...anything more than 4" and I'll be happy.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 11 2017, 08:59 PM


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Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 50”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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JDClapper
post Dec 11 2017, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 11 2017, 09:53 PM) *
Erhm... I'm a noobsie but I think the airport was reporting snow... correct me if wrong.


You're fine, don't let Mr. Grinch bother you wink.gif

Welcome to the forums. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 5¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Dec 11 2017, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 11 2017, 09:54 PM) *
Snowing in Sullivan county for sure

Prolly foot and a half by now. Clapper can likely see the snow capped Appalachian mtns to his east laugh.gif


laugh.gif Heard it on the old scanner, they got their fleet out and about clearing the 2"/hr snow rates. I definite roof raker! wink.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 5¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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tool483
post Dec 11 2017, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 11 2017, 08:59 PM) *
laugh.gif Heard it on the old scanner, they got their fleet out and about clearing the 2"/hr snow rates. I definite roof raker! wink.gif



laugh.gif laugh.gif


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rtcemc
post Dec 11 2017, 10:51 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 11 2017, 08:53 PM) *
Erhm... I'm a noobsie but I think the airport was reporting snow... correct me if wrong.

Sols, I wasn't busting you, no harm meant. I was kidding JD the Mod for closing a thread for obs. Sorry if you thought it was directed at you.
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Solstice
post Dec 11 2017, 10:52 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 11 2017, 10:51 PM) *
Sols, I wasn't busting you, no harm meant. I was kidding JD the Mod for closing a thread for obs. Sorry if you thought it was directed at you.


Ah, no problem. All part of my learning experience. Lol smile.gif


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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rtcemc
post Dec 11 2017, 10:55 PM
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Mr. Grinch huh Clap ? You're just upset by your homework assignment, which was a big fail by the way. Need a better attitude around here tongue.gif tongue.gif I'm trying to provide real model performance of, uh "storms" laugh.gif
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bingobobbo
post Dec 11 2017, 10:57 PM
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As we approach 11 PM, it is still plain old overcast--four days and counting. I hope we can get 2 inches out of this.


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 11 2017, 11:13 PM
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Attached Image



SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z,
with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z.

DISCUSSION...In association with a midlevel shortwave trough
approaching the upper OH Valley, a deformation snow band has been
developing eastward over Lake Erie. Low-midlevel warm
advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak
frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the
snow band across central NY through the early morning hours.
Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western
into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column
saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases
through the early morning hours. Peak snowfall rates should
approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at
locations within the expected corridor of the snow band.


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 105.1”(as of 1/14)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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tool483
post Dec 11 2017, 11:18 PM
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Still 31.3 here, DP at 20

radar is starting to fill in, in NY

Was 1007 earlier now 1005mb pressure

posted a pressure map in other thread earlier, didn't relate to the surface or anything apparently laugh.gif . Expecting some ZR for the morning commute yay

the critical levels look good for now anyway.

Attached Image


And then for NY

Attached Image


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