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> May 16-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 11:57 PM
Post #101




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Although it doesn't state it in the report, might have some tornado damage in SW OH. The damaging wind report is almost exactly where there was gate-to-gate rotation and went tornado warned.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 21 2018, 10:04 PM) *
Drop in reflectivity over decent rotation... possible tornado?

Edit: ILN's on top of it today. It went tornado warned a few seconds after I made the post... nice.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 21 2018, 11:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2018, 12:58 AM
Post #102




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





East of Cincy is getting slammed with rain, wow. Some sort of an MCS has formed southwest of where the action was today and is moving northeast very slowly.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 10:44 AM
Post #103




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Posts: 18,797
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Slight risk area added to approx. the SE half of OH while the marginal area covers SE IN and the rest of Ohio except the far NW corner.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 11:24 AM
Post #104




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Just saw this on FB

QUOTE
US National Weather Service Wilmington OH
19 mins
NWS storm survey team in Brown County determined that an EF0 tornado touched down north of Mount Orab and was on the ground for approximately one mile. More specific details will follow later today when the team returns and prepares their more detailed report.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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RobB
post May 22 2018, 11:39 AM
Post #105




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 43,057
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





SPC Update:

QUOTE
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and
Ohio Valley, as well as over portions of the High Plains and
north-central Rockies.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Visible imagery indicates thinning cloud cover over Indiana and much
of Ohio which will permit stronger diabatic heating and air mass
destabilization to occur this afternoon, in advance of a
southeastward moving cold front located from extreme northwest Ohio
into southwest Indiana. The decrease in cloud cover will spread
into western Pennsylvania with time and contribute to a gradual
increase in heating. MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg,
with greater instability expected with westward extent.

Short bands of mainly shallow convection are developing along/ahead
of the front from northwest Ohio into east central Indiana.
Updrafts within this activity are expected to strengthen with
several bands of northeast-southwest oriented thunderstorms forming
by early-mid afternoon. The storms will be located on the southern
edge of stronger westerly winds aloft, including the right entrance
region of an upper level jet, resulting in deep layer shear of 30-40
kt that will enhance storm organization and intensity. Stronger
cells will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts with isolated
hail also possible mainly with any storms that are able to develop
transient updraft rotation. The activity will spread eastward and
southeastward through the evening hours before storms gradually
weaken as boundary layer cooling and low-level stabilization occurs.

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RobB
post May 22 2018, 11:42 AM
Post #106




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Member No.: 16





.


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RobB
post May 22 2018, 12:02 PM
Post #107




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Far Northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221657Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
from eastern Indiana east-northeastward across Ohio into far
northwest Pennsylvania. Wind damage and isolated large hail are
expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will need
to be considered as storms increase in coverage and intensity.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from
northwest Ohio southwestward into west-central Indiana. Surface
dewpoints along and just ahead of the front are in the upper 60s to
near 70 F. Surface temperatures are now in the 75 to 80 F range and
the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
of 1000 to 1500 J/k across eastern Indiana and western Ohio.
Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along the front near
the strongest instability. Thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage as low-level convergence increases along the front and as a
shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region. In
addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate
deep-layer shear. For example, the Cleveland VWP has 0-6 km shear
near 30 kt with unidirectional winds from the west-southwest. This
wind profile should support a potential for damaging wind gusts with
multicells especially as low-level lapse rates steepen over the next
few hours. Cells that have rotation may also be capable of producing
isolated large hail.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 42068049 42048150 41878255 41238391 40248550 39818581
39258563 38958505 38788372 39488188 40958016 41657990
42068049

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Juniorrr
post May 22 2018, 12:19 PM
Post #108




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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Perhaps we'll get something this time. laugh.gif
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 12:27 PM
Post #109




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ May 22 2018, 01:19 PM) *
Perhaps we'll get something this time. laugh.gif

We better. That's a nice solid line forming in IN. If that somehow misses us, I give up.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 12:45 PM
Post #110




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From: Dayton,OH
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Watch out until 9pm.
Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Indiana
Extreme North Central Kentucky
Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia Panhandle
Lake Erie

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms developing along and head of an advancing cold
front will intensify and spread eastward this afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary severe threat through the evening
hours.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Cincinnati OH to 40 miles north northeast of Pittsburgh PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post May 22 2018, 01:29 PM
Post #111




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 22 2018, 01:27 PM) *
We better. That's a nice solid line forming in IN. If that somehow misses us, I give up.

What happened to the line? wink.gif
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swatpup102
post May 22 2018, 01:38 PM
Post #112




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Member No.: 27,369





I was watching the development last night from just before the cells hit the Ohio border coming through Kentucky and Indiana to where they issued the Tornado Warning. There were indicators basically that whole way that things were rotating but at low speeds in the velocity data and with some low echo tops. Some sheer markers were present but nothing major until right into Brown County.

I know there are specific criteria for severe storm and tornado warnings, but I wish the NWS would evaluate things a little closer for issuing a severe thunderstorm warning. We've had several storms in the SW Ohio area in the last year or so that have dropped an EF0 or EF1 with no warning issued of any kind. If I am seeing the markers across three counties before a spin up (as has happened on a few of these type of tornados recently), I know they are watching it too. Seems prudent to at least issue a severe storm warning even if the other criteria for it haven't been met yet when there is rotation prevalent on radar.
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 01:58 PM
Post #113




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ May 22 2018, 02:29 PM) *
What happened to the line? wink.gif

Can't believe it died out. Hopefully it redevelops.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 22 2018, 02:28 PM
Post #114




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Posts: 15,153
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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Alright alright you guys can take back your normal spring weather of thunderstorms almost every day and rains on rains. It was fun at first but having it everyday has been getting old lately. Not sure what the deal is but it surely has been an interesting pattern hopefully we can build up the SER enough to push this back your way.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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2017/2018


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FireworkWX03
post May 22 2018, 02:32 PM
Post #115




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Another boundary lying across southern Medina and Summit counties. Not sure if that's a lake breeze or a storm that gusted out as I wasn't watching earlier (looks like a lake breeze) but the Ashland County storm will hit it shortly.

Looks like a pattern change locally after this and then some dry heat going into Memorial Day weekend around here. Looking forward to it!!
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2018, 05:28 PM
Post #116




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Seems like we're having trouble with capping in west-central Ohio.

Can't say today disappointed me because I wasn't expecting anything in the first place.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 22 2018, 05:33 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 22 2018, 06:06 PM
Post #117




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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Another disappointment laugh.gif
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 06:13 PM
Post #118




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 22 2018, 06:28 PM) *
Seems like we're having trouble with capping in west-central Ohio.

Can't say today disappointed me because I wasn't expecting anything in the first place.

I am. There was actually a nice line of storms from Celina to Indy just before the watch was issued. Didn't think there was anyway it would miss us but sure enough it died out as it moved east.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2018, 06:32 PM
Post #119




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 22 2018, 07:13 PM) *
I am. There was actually a nice line of storms from Celina to Indy just before the watch was issued. Didn't think there was anyway it would miss us but sure enough it died out as it moved east.

It's a good thing I didn't look at SPC or the radar today because I started working when we weren't even in a marginal (I think?), left work under a slight risk/severe tstorm watch.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 22 2018, 06:48 PM
Post #120




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From: Dayton,OH
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 22 2018, 07:32 PM) *
It's a good thing I didn't look at SPC or the radar today because I started working when we weren't even in a marginal (I think?), left work under a slight risk/severe tstorm watch.

We went back into a marginal risk at the 9am update with a slight risk added from about Columbus and east. Then we were added to the slight risk at the 12:30 update. Watch was issued an hour later.


--------------------
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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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