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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Dayton,OH
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15 Sep 2017
Another severe threat possibly starting next Tuesday. Day 5 area outlined.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale trough will remain anchored across the western half of
the CONUS for much of the extended period, although predictability
of this pattern deteriorates after D6/Wednesday as models deviate
regarding individual impulses migrating through the trough. During
the D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday timeframe, a lee trough will remain
nearly stationary across the central/northern High Plains, with
western troughing resulting in southwesterly flow aloft
overspreading a broad warm sector characterized by 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints. At least isolated instances of severe risk are expected
during this period across the central and especially northern Great
Plains east of the lee trough given weak to moderate buoyancy and
veering vertical wind profiles. Highest confidence in a
concentrated area of severe weather will occur on D5/Tuesday
afternoon/evening, where convergence along the lee trough (enhanced
by cyclogenesis over northeastern Colorado) fosters scattered
convection across the Dakotas southward into Nebraska amidst
strengthening mid-level flow attendant to the trough. Slight/15%
severe probabilities have been introduced for this (D5) time period,
and may be needed in additional periods in later outlooks given the
generally favorable synoptic pattern.

..Cook.. 09/15/2017
12 Sep 2017
Looks like something to track finally.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
The 00Z ECMWF/GFS differ some with the track of the Day 3 Four
Corners shortwave trough as it continues to lose amplitude during
D4/Friday, tracking through the northern Plains to northern MN and
adjacent northwest Ontario. At the surface, an area of low pressure
should move from western NE to northeast SD by 16/00Z, and into
northwest MN by 12Z Saturday. Despite weak 500-mb height falls,
DPVA with the progressive shortwave trough and increasing ascent
attendant to a strengthening southerly low-level jet extending into
eastern SD Friday afternoon suggest thunderstorm development should
occur near the surface low and trailing cold front. Moderate
instability and vertically veering winds should prove favorable for
severe storms from central and eastern SD into central NE, with hail
and strong/damaging winds being the primary threats.

...D5/Saturday...
Although a cold front should advance east across the upper MS Valley
and south through the central Plains, models suggest stronger
forcing for ascent should lag the cold front. 00Z ECMWF and GFS
differ in the attendant amplitude of the midlevel trough reaching
the northern Plains late Saturday afternoon and also into MN and
western WI Saturday night. Some severe storms may occur across the
upper MS Valley into IA, but model differences in the amplitude of
the progressive trough preclude the introduction of a 15% percent
severe probability area for D5/Saturday.

..Peters.. 09/12/2017
28 Aug 2017
Looking more and more likely that the remnants of Harvey with move northeast out of the GOM and up towards the OV bringing heavy rainfall with it.

Attached Image
18 Aug 2017
Next threat of Severe weather looks to start Sunday.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
eastern South Dakota late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This
may include the eventual formation of a large thunderstorm cluster
by late Sunday evening, accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies may
continue a northward retreat into areas mostly north of the
Canadian/U.S. border during this period. At lower latitudes,
western Atlantic subtropical ridging is forecast to continue
building westward, and expanding northward, across the Southeast,
into the southern Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Farther west, broad weak troughing with numerous embedded
perturbations may continue to evolve west of the California coast
into the southern Great Basin and Rockies.

On the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies, a plume of
warm elevated mixed layer air may nose east of the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies into the mid Missouri Valley. At the same time, modest
southerly low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture
transport across the Plains, into the vicinity of a cold front
advancing southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
before stalling. This latter feature is expected to accompany a
short wave trough crossing the Canadian prairies, before turning
northeastward across northwestern Ontario by early Sunday. Another
significant short wave impulse may dig east southeast of the
Canadian Rockies through the Canadian prairies by late Sunday night.

...Parts of northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...
There remains considerable spread among the various models
concerning pertinent features which could impact convective
development Sunday afternoon and evening. This includes the
positioning of the zone of potentially strong differential surface
heating and plume of elevated mixed layer air, and possible subtle
perturbations near the southern-most fringe of the mid-latitude
westerlies.

In general, though, the development of large CAPE, with continued
moistening beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence
of favorable shear for organized storm development (largely due to
pronounced veering with height), appears likely to contribute to an
environment potentially supportive of severe storm development. At
the present time, this seems most probable across parts of
central/eastern South Dakota Sunday evening, where/when forcing for
ascent may become enhanced near the nose of a modest strengthening
southerly 850 mb jet. A transition from isolated supercell
development to a consolidating/upscale growing mesoscale convective
system appears possible.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2017
24 Jul 2017
Next rounds of severe weather start today in the northern plains where a marginal risk in ND is.

Slight risk is introduced on day 2 in northern plains/upper MW.
Attached Image


Day 3 slight risk for GL/OV areas.
Attached Image


Day 4 could bring severe to OV.
QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good large-scale
agreement through roughly Day 6/Saturday, in depicting fairly
substantial amplification of the upper flow field. The eventual
result will be troughing/cyclonic flow covering the eastern half of
the U.S. and a large ridge over the West.

Prior to establishment of the longer-wavelength eastern trough, an
initial short-wave trough will advance steadily across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast day 4/Thursday, accompanied by a
similarly progressing surface cold front. While the front should
focus a zone of showers and storms, questions regarding overall
degree of warm-sector instability exist. While the Ohio vicinity
may be a focus for somewhat greater severe risk given hints of ample
CAPE/shear, confidence is not great enough to add an areal highlight
at this time.


An isolated severe risk may also evolve across portions of the high
Plains region day 4, as a weak disturbance cresting the ridge may
enhance convective potential within a low-level upslope flow regime.
However,instability appears likely to remain limited across this
area as well.

As the front moves offshore day 5, and ridging amplifies days 5-6
over the west, the High Plains would likely remain the primary focus
for isolated severe storms. However, substantial/organized severe
risk is not evident at this time.

..Goss.. 07/24/2017
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18 Sep 2017 - 16:47


7 Sep 2017 - 2:32


17 Apr 2017 - 9:37


8 Mar 2017 - 23:33


7 Mar 2017 - 22:33

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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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