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> Long Range Winter 2015-2016 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
RobB
post Feb 3 2016, 04:16 PM
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12Z GEFS 5 day 2m temp anomaly graphics:




Attached File(s)
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21.png ( 192.71K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41.png ( 194.03K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_61.png ( 197.37K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Feb 3 2016, 04:17 PM
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12Z GEM Ensembles 5 Day 2m temp anomaly graphics:




Attached File(s)
Attached File  cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_21.png ( 207.39K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_41.png ( 203.11K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_61.png ( 205.54K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Feb 3 2016, 04:19 PM
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I must state that the 12Z Euro EPS is NOT bullish on cold in the 10 - 15 day of the GEFS or GEM ensembles.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 3 2016, 04:35 PM
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I'm not a big fan of using the BSR for predicting every day weather patterns. It did pretty bad in January. I much prefer using the TR for that, and leaving the BSR to predict big systems.

If we were to use the BSR to forecast January, we would be using 2014 as an analog to say the least. It suggested that we'd see an eastern trough for 30 days straight.



Assuming 8 day correlation, here's what the TR says for the 16th.



Then for the 18th



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Feb 3 2016, 04:55 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 03:35 PM) *
I'm not a big fan of using the BSR for predicting every day weather patterns. It did pretty bad in January. I much prefer using the TR for that, and leaving the BSR to predict big systems.

If we were to use the BSR to forecast January, we would be using 2014 as an analog to say the least. It suggested that we'd see an eastern trough for 30 days straight.




One of the things that I was having to remind people is how "stale" the cold air was on numerous occasions. I'm in the process of creating a "rebuttal" blog because I've already amassed too many pictures. wink.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 3 2016, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 3 2016, 04:55 PM) *
One of the things that I was having to remind people is how "stale" the cold air was on numerous occasions. I'm in the process of creating a "rebuttal" blog because I've already amassed too many pictures. wink.gif

It has been stale when it was here but it was because of the snow cover. January was much warmer than what BSR would've suggested

Looking forward to the blog

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 3 2016, 04:59 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Feb 3 2016, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 03:58 PM) *
It has been stale when it was here because of the snow... but January was much warmer than what BSR would've suggested

Looking forward to the blog


The BSR didn't suggest a cold January. It suggested below normal 500mb heights...to which you might be surprised with the data. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2016, 05:13 PM
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Roof Cam animation Since January 22nd..


In last 12 days we've had Snow, Cold, Warm, Rain, Blue Skies, Cloudy Skies, Snowpack, Green Grass and even fog which isn't on this animation. I used 1 per day around 11:30am.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 3 2016, 05:18 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 3 2016, 05:00 PM) *
The BSR didn't suggest a cold January. It suggested below normal 500mb heights...to which you might be surprised with the data. wink.gif

Below average 500mb heights implies cold. That's not always the case, but that's the case most of the time. That's why it's implied.

Either way, I'm talking about specific days or 3 day periods, such as the original graphic that Josh posted. My original point was that it suggested a trough over the north and east US for every day of the month. This is especially true for the northern tier of the country where there were actually warmer than average temps associated with above average heights.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 3 2016, 05:20 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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idecline
post Feb 3 2016, 06:13 PM
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Well after 11 'storms' in the first 22 days of January (according to local mets on radio and TV) we have finally gotten a 'lull' in continuous storm energy...the atmosphere is slowly changing over to a warmer regime in California...we had a large, windy storm come through on the weekend (bringing the blizzard to the MidWest)...we had light sprinkles on Tuesday...with a little edge of a Northern front to come through tonight...Then....

"The Super Bowl Is Safe"!....amazingly the 'dry' spell of this El Nino coincides with the Super Bowl

Gametime temperatures are predicted to be in the high 60's to low 70's on Sunday...!!

a few days of above normal warm temperatures should hang around to get everybody out of town...

The following week is the ATT Pro-Am Golf Tournament on the Monterey Peninsula...???

[ Locals know that this tournament often 'brings' the rain in by the bucket] so, anecdotally all bets are off....

Local 'wisdom' says the nastiest storms of this 'El Nino' season are coming in just over the horizon... dry.gif

"idee rant # 1( for calendar year 2016)

this is just an 'update' since idee has been 'indisposed' for most of 2016 (working!) smile.gif

Real scientific discussion will return to these airwaves upon my departure (hope to be bak on more ....soon)


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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 3 2016, 06:18 PM
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i'd pay money for the 18z GFS OP pattern
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Nick Dolan
post Feb 3 2016, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 3 2016, 05:18 PM) *
i'd pay money for the 18z GFS OP pattern

Yeah the 18z GFS looks good! We need to get all the other models to go toward that idea!
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jdrenken
post Feb 3 2016, 06:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 04:18 PM) *
Below average 500mb heights implies cold. That's not always the case, but that's the case most of the time. That's why it's implied.

Either way, I'm talking about specific days or 3 day periods, such as the original graphic that Josh posted. My original point was that it suggested a trough over the north and east US for every day of the month. This is especially true for the northern tier of the country where there were actually warmer than average temps associated with above average heights.



The first issue you have is the "implication" that a trough ='s cold. I addressed this very early, on January 6th as a matter of fact, in a conversation that I had with a friend on facebook, and then again on the 14th with Michael Clark of BAMChase.

You are not talking about specific days or 3 day periods when you claim the month as a whole is in a trough. Also, Josh's original graphic did not imply that at all!

The key to the BSR is the ability to utilize it correctly. I have quite a few people who get mad at me for teaching people the BSR and how I should be holding it closer to myself. The misinterpretation of the BSR by multiple people shows why I choose not to show my hand to everyone.

QUOTE
It's a marriage of sorts.


The blog post I created is here and here.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Feb 3 2016, 06:45 PM
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18Z GEFS graphics:




Attached File(s)
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21.png ( 208.1K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41.png ( 198.36K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_61.png ( 199.04K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 3 2016, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 3 2016, 06:18 PM) *
i'd pay money for the 18z GFS OP pattern



QUOTE(Nick Dolan @ Feb 3 2016, 06:28 PM) *
Yeah the 18z GFS looks good! We need to get all the other models to go toward that idea!


Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs.png ( 618.98K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 3 2016, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 3 2016, 06:41 PM) *
The first issue you have is the "implication" that a trough ='s cold. I addressed this very early, on January 6th as a matter of fact, in a conversation that I had with a friend on facebook, and then again on the 14th with Michael Clark of BAMChase.

I said troughs are usually associated with cold air underneath, ridges are usually associated with warm air underneath. Notice I say usually... because as I said, it's not always the case.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 05:18 PM) *
Below average 500mb heights implies cold. That's not always the case, but that's the case most of the time. That's why it's implied.


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 3 2016, 06:41 PM) *
You are not talking about specific days or 3 day periods when you claim the month as a whole is in a trough. Also, Josh's original graphic did not imply that at all!

I said my original point. I was referring to this bit

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 04:35 PM) *
I'm not a big fan of using the BSR for predicting every day weather patterns. It did pretty bad in January. I much prefer using the TR for that, and leaving the BSR to predict big systems.


So yes, I was originally talking about daily to 3 day periods because it was in response to Grace posting a 3 day forecast with the BSR. If it hadn't been for that, we wouldn't be talking about this right now.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 3 2016, 07:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Feb 3 2016, 08:05 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2016, 06:19 PM) *
I said troughs are usually associated with cold air underneath, ridges are usually associated with warm air underneath. Notice I say usually... because as I said, it's not always the case.
I said my original point. I was referring to this bit
So yes, I was originally talking about daily to 3 day periods because it was in response to Grace posting a 3 day forecast with the BSR. If it hadn't been for that, we wouldn't be talking about this right now.


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 3 2016, 05:41 PM) *
The key to the BSR is the ability to utilize it correctly. I have quite a few people who get mad at me for teaching people the BSR and how I should be holding it closer to myself. The misinterpretation of the BSR by multiple people shows why I choose not to show my hand to everyone.



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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snowsux
post Feb 3 2016, 08:11 PM
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They call them "clown maps" for a reason. When's the last time anyone's seen nearly the whole state of NC under a foot of snow in late February? I've actually seen these maps in past years showing snow crippling literally 90% of the continental US at the same time, way into the deep south. I can't believe people still buy into these.
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RobB
post Feb 3 2016, 08:22 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 3 2016, 08:11 PM) *
They call them "clown maps" for a reason. When's the last time anyone's seen nearly the whole state of NC under a foot of snow in late February? I've actually seen these maps in past years showing snow crippling literally 90% of the continental US at the same time, way into the deep south. I can't believe people still buy into these.



Well most don't actually. Many tend to hope that such a scenario can come about smile.gif
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stxprowl
post Feb 3 2016, 08:40 PM
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Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz thoughts
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