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> June 10th-17th Heatwave MW/Plains/OV, Long Range (6-10 days) Forecasts and Observations
ILStormwatcher
post Jun 2 2017, 12:58 PM
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Looks increasingly likely that our first true blue heatwave for much of the nation is on tap for late next week into pretty much all of the following along with generally dry conditions for the heartland into the plains. Core of the heat according to the GFS and CFS is pointing towards the plains with the core shifting to the Mississippi River Valley towards the Day 10 to 14 period. Widespread 90s and even 100s could be on tap with the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley most likely to cash in on the triple digit heat.

Feel free to post future model runs/predictions, and once we get closer observations here. Including graphics, charts, etc.

PS: GFS hinting at 600DM ridge in it's 12Z Friday run?
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snowlover2
post Jun 2 2017, 02:09 PM
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If the core of the heat sets up in the plains, a ring of fire(if one sets up) would likely bring storms to the GL/OV areas.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 3 2017, 12:00 AM
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GFS has been showing some seasonably impressive dew points. IMO, may be plausible due to evapotranspiration due to a very wet past 60 days. Still skeptical about those 80+ degree dew points though, naturally.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 3 2017, 12:01 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post Jun 4 2017, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 3 2017, 01:00 AM) *
GFS has been showing some seasonably impressive dew points. IMO, may be plausible due to evapotranspiration due to a very wet past 60 days. Still skeptical about those 80+ degree dew points though, naturally.

Can't remember the year but it wasn't terribly long ago. Maybe 3 years ago. But I know we had DPs in the upper 70s for an extended period of time. I think we saw 80 a few times. It was a miserable stretch indeed.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 4 2017, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 4 2017, 03:31 PM) *
Can't remember the year but it wasn't terribly long ago. Maybe 3 years ago. But I know we had DPs in the upper 70s for an extended period of time. I think we saw 80 a few times. It was a miserable stretch indeed.

I know for a fact that 2011 was like that. However, not sure which of the past 5 summers. 2012 was dominated by high temps and more average dew points. But I don't think it's that hard to have very high dew points in the summer; just need a well-placed heat dome after a very wet spring/summer and a very warm GoM

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 4 2017, 08:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post Jun 4 2017, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 4 2017, 09:31 PM) *
I know for a fact that 2011 was like that. However, not sure which of the past 5 summers. 2012 was dominated by high temps and more average dew points. But I don't think it's that hard to have very high dew points in the summer; just need a well-placed heat dome after a very wet spring/summer and a very warm GoM

It might have been 2011. I'm terrible with dates for the record lol. Like really terrible lol.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 4 2017, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 4 2017, 10:30 PM) *
It might have been 2011. I'm terrible with dates for the record lol. Like really terrible lol.

I am, too. Although I don't remember much of our weather from 2011, I know what it was like in the Midwest. Such an extreme year for weather. I remember reading that some place in Minnesota recorded mid-80 degree dew point one day.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 4 2017, 09:36 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 5 2017, 06:35 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 4 2017, 10:34 PM) *
I am, too. Although I don't remember much of our weather from 2011, I know what it was like in the Midwest. Such an extreme year for weather. I remember reading that some place in Minnesota recorded mid-80 degree dew point one day.

This pattern is why I'm saying we could have a pretty good severe pattern from the mid west on over east with strong meso cyclones (derecho type events) with ultra wet ground and heat domes with sharp troughs forming out west, it spells trouble for us, or an interesting time. Also 2011 was the great derecho that started in Wisconsin and tore a path of destruction most the large part of the MA.
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 5 2017, 06:39 AM
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Not looking forward to next week at all. Won't be so bad if work turns on the AC, actually in a building that cools down now

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NorEaster07
post Jun 5 2017, 09:41 AM
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100s for Dakotas? Barely any precip in that area so ground is bone dry. Might easily surpass 95F.

Euro says 100s too

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2017, 12:24 PM
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SPC talking about increased severe potential in the next week. What I'm seeing on GFS mostly keeps the severe potential west of this forum's interest. But hopefully we can catch one of those surprise events.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2017, 12:27 PM
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GEFS analogs has increased potential in the OV in the 9-11 day timeframe. Other than that, weak severe weather signal with seasonably warm weather.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jun 5 2017, 01:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2017, 01:27 PM) *
GEFS analogs has increased potential in the OV in the 9-11 day timeframe. Other than that, weak severe weather signal with seasonably warm weather.

*patiently awaits derecho season+heat wave*
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ValpoSnow
post Jun 5 2017, 08:54 PM
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Chicago had its first 90 yesterday. Hit 93 here at my place in the city, slightly cooler at both airports.

Northeast winds are saving us this evening, though.

Dreading next week.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2017, 09:01 PM
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In case we didn't know



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2017, 11:14 PM
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Temps in the mid-90's in the Dakotas by 1PM local time blink.gif


Good ol' cap


Look at the flow around the ridge!!! A good setup hindered by the cap. Cap finally breaks on Tuesday.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 5 2017, 11:33 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 6 2017, 09:00 AM
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Figured I would post this here as well pretty cool lecture videos from spc and university of oklahoma about severe weather processes.

Yes they do the math wink.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/spcousom/#sti


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 6 2017, 08:18 PM
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From the upper 80's this past weekend to upper 60's tomorrow to low 90's this weekend. Weather sure does seem to be transitioning to summer mode.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post Jun 7 2017, 09:20 AM
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I'm going to enjoy the 60s of today.


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ColumbusBuckeye
post Jun 7 2017, 10:41 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 7 2017, 09:20 AM) *
I'm going to enjoy the 60s of today.


Eh, not me. I see enough of these cloudy and cool days throughout the year. Bring on the the heat, sunshine and MCS season.
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