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> Hurricane Franklin, 8/9 7 PM CDT CAT1: 85 MPH - 983mb - Movement: W @ 13mph
Phased Vort
post Aug 3 2017, 01:17 PM
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Invest 90L has been activated for the system over the eastern Caribbean just east of Trindad & Tobago.


QUOTE
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Thursday, Aug. 3, 2017 12:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Pressure:
1012 mb (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa)
Location at the time:
196 statute miles (316 km) to the NE (53°) from Caracas, Venezuela.
Coordinates:
12.2N 64.6W   How far away is this from me?

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data




This system is the one that may becaome a tropical cyclone over the southern GOMEX.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 3 2017, 01:38 PM
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12Z ECMWF giving Invest 90L a pretty decent boost on this run.

Develops it over the Caribbean as it tracks towards the Yucatan penn, and then starts to deepen it
to 990mb over the norhtern areas of the southern GOMEX.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 3 2017, 02:29 PM
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oh man a wave survived I guess we now really should start looking down in the region in the coming weeks since it seems the dry has scoured out for now.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 3 2017, 05:50 PM
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Im curious about this one as it seems to have a relatively decent environment that it will be getting into with the hotbed of waters in this region the mjo finally influencing this region and then later on the Atlantic which then we will have to watch.


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DrewNola
post Aug 4 2017, 08:20 AM
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Here in Nola, we're watching. Any Mets have updated insight/models?
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Phased Vort
post Aug 4 2017, 09:05 AM
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00Z ECMWF continues to tells us that there will be a tropical cyclone in the GOMEX.

So far it has been taking it towards the area just south of the Mexico - Texas border, and has made it deeper; sub 990mb.





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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 4 2017, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 4 2017, 10:05 AM) *
00Z ECMWF continues to tells us that there will be a tropical cyclone in the GOMEX.

So far it has been taking it towards the area just south of the Mexico - Texas border, and has made it deeper; sub 990mb.





Yea depends a lot on how things setup for ridging and troughing still about 5 days out so some things can change but I don't see a problem with euro solution being the case, strength will have to be determined but overall looks rather in line.


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risingriver
post Aug 4 2017, 06:45 PM
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I'd be more interested if the track wasn't over the Yucatan.
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Qdeathstar
post Aug 4 2017, 08:53 PM
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just depends on how soon it organizes.. sooner typically means a more northerly track....


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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Phased Vort
post Aug 6 2017, 01:05 PM
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90L is well on its way to become Franklin still today or tomorrow.

Satellite image looks much better.





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risingriver
post Aug 6 2017, 02:35 PM
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It certainly throwing some serious outflow boundaries off to the West. Hard to tell whether it's still got the center of circulation displaced from the main convection.
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 6 2017, 08:16 PM
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Don't have to guess too hard where this is headed O_o Look at that ridge! O_x;;;;
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risingriver
post Aug 6 2017, 11:34 PM
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Franklin has been born.

NHC?
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Phased Vort
post Aug 7 2017, 02:13 PM
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Franklin is looking nice!



Letīs see what it will be able to achieve.



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Qdeathstar
post Aug 7 2017, 06:48 PM
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Bursting convection... looks very healthy... luckily for mexico it is already close to land so probably wont strengthen too much....


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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LUCC
post Aug 8 2017, 01:41 PM
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

This post has been edited by LUCC: Aug 8 2017, 01:42 PM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Aug 9 2017, 03:49 PM
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Frankie showing no let up and is shedding mb's as he approaches Mex.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 9 2017, 03:55 PM
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Oh no, I just realized that Frankie may affect the tequila region. Better go stock up - NOW! laugh.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 11 2017, 11:09 PM
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I believe Franklin survived enough to allow it to reform into something in the Eastern Pacific. That is impressive going over those mountains but it did have decent forward speed and crossed a relatively narrower chain of mountains then say central or northern mexico. Managed to be ok even with crossing what I believe is the tallest mountain in mexico too.

It like the little engine that could.


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