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> Dec 26th-27th NE/MidAtl Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
jordan4385
post Dec 18 2013, 06:21 PM
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maybe something going on at this time frame?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=192


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grandpaboy
post Dec 18 2013, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Dec 18 2013, 06:21 PM) *
maybe something going on at this time frame?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=192



Where???? huh.gif




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dsnowchaser
post Dec 18 2013, 09:35 PM
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At hour 204-216 on the 18z gfs had a coastal scraper...only one run no other model support at this time though.


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Northwest of Baltimore, MD
2 miles South of Mason Dixon Line



Winter 2014/15 total (47.7")
Winter 2015/16 total (40")



( Total snowfall 2014/15 - (47.7")
( first accum snow) Nov 14th - .2"
( biggest to date) Jan.18th (4"),Jan 26th(4.5") Feb. 16th 3.25
Feb. 21st (9"), Mar. 5th ( 10.75"),Mar.20th (3.2")
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WinterWolf
post Dec 18 2013, 09:38 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Dec 18 2013, 09:26 PM) *
Where???? huh.gif


Maybe he was looking at the blob of precip off the GA Coast and back into the Eastern Gulf???? Maybe he thought it was going to come up the coast??? Not much to look at there though.
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jdrenken
post Dec 18 2013, 09:42 PM
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A thread is not supposed to be started for the NE/MidAtl because of a blip in the SE. If there anything by 12z...let the thread die a slow death.


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Undertakerson
post Dec 19 2013, 05:23 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 18 2013, 09:42 PM) *
A thread is not supposed to be started for the NE/MidAtl because of a blip in the SE. If there anything by 12z...let the thread die a slow death.

Attached Image


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

QUOTE
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS GENERALLY CONTAIN SOUTHERN STREAM
DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ARE TIED TO THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CAN
WORK THOROUGHLY THROUGH FLORIDA. THIS MAKES THE ECMWF AN
AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION---PRECIPITATION-WISE---FOR
FLORIDA...COASTAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA
AND THE OUTER BANKS. WILL LEAVE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC 250MB FLOW PROGS.


Verbatim, the DGEX ( I know - it's the DGEX) shows this scraping S VA, DE, and perhaps NJ - all within the thread region.

The 0z GFS Op run also pops the SLP off of OBX whilst a s/w in the northern stream comes through the GL's. This has a small chance to pick up the coastal and phase it in - pull it back a bit.

There are two GEFS members that show this to phase but not until it reaches the latitudes of NE
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html


I suppose it's natural to write this potential off - however, we've seen BD (or thereabouts) events the past two years running (or is it 2 out of 3)

Let me be clear, I am not fully endorsing this potential - just showing that it can't totally be dismissed.

Edit: and with that the 6z GFS suggests that this may be more of a potential. As it sharpens the W Atl upper level flow and bring the precip in much closer to the coast as a result. The incoming northern s/w at H5 digs so much further south and tries to go negative (but only makes it to neutral)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 19 2013, 05:47 AM
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 19 2013, 10:04 AM
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CMC, UKMET, 6z GFS all show a potential coastal storm, fast moving impacting the region in some form, question is how quickly can it organize and phase with the northern stream energy, this is all around hour 144 on the foreign models. Exception being the EURO which does not have anything of this magnitude impacting the region. Also my grandmother is leaving on the 26th, so this has a high impact on whether or not she can leave.
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 19 2013, 11:44 AM
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12z GGEM supports a Christmas Day snowstorm for the interior and a rainstorm for the coastline.
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east coast storm
post Dec 19 2013, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 19 2013, 11:44 AM) *
12z GGEM supports a Christmas Day snowstorm for the interior and a rainstorm for the coastline.

The 12Z GFS shows a weak low developing off the SE coast. It may be interesting during
this timeframe.
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jb1979
post Dec 19 2013, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Dec 19 2013, 11:47 AM) *
The 12Z GFS shows a weak low developing off the SE coast. It may be interesting during
this timeframe.



Nothing to get super excited about but between that and the GGEM there is certainly enough to keep watching. Time to move this puppy off life support and cancel the death watch tongue.gif


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Winter 2016 - 41.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
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telejunkie
post Dec 19 2013, 11:53 AM
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12z GFS has a nicely positioned PV and a northern stream energy swinging though...we'll see if it can dig enough to get some subtropical energy.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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east coast storm
post Dec 19 2013, 12:31 PM
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QUOTE(jb1979 @ Dec 19 2013, 11:55 AM) *
Nothing to get super excited about but between that and the GGEM there is certainly enough to keep watching. Time to move this puppy off life support and cancel the death watch tongue.gif

As always it would depend on whether the low moves closer to the coast.
I remember the BD Blizzard a few years ago. I was living on Long Island at the time.
L.I. received 15 - 20 inches. WOW I won't forget that. So things can happen.
Interesting times next week.
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 19 2013, 01:14 PM
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12z EURO is running, out to hour 72. 12z GGEM has Cape Cod, MA in snow for 36 hours straight. Strong northerly flow in place supporting the coldest air mass of the season in place for Christmas Day.
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jrdrnt
post Dec 19 2013, 01:35 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 19 2013, 01:14 PM) *
12z EURO is running, out to hour 72. 12z GGEM has Cape Cod, MA in snow for 36 hours straight. Strong northerly flow in place supporting the coldest air mass of the season in place for Christmas Day.

I thought you just said rain for the coastline and an interior snowstorm on the 12Z GGEM. Are you referring to down south more, like NJ?
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telejunkie
post Dec 19 2013, 01:36 PM
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hr168 looks intriguing on Euro...if something happens, would be after this threads timeframe though.

Edit...or perfectly in line with it (was thinking this was 25-26th) laugh.gif

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 19 2013, 01:43 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Dec 19 2013, 01:44 PM
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999mb LP tracking just south & east of Montauk @ hr192

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 19 2013, 01:45 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 19 2013, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 19 2013, 01:44 PM) *
999mb LP tracking just south & east of Montauk @ hr192


yup very warm for the coastal plain but perhaps a hit for places inland..
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jb1979
post Dec 19 2013, 01:53 PM
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If this somehow turns into a snowstorm (for anyone) I nominate Jordan to start all threads moving forward. I mean this was a blip on the 18Z GFS and as soon as he threw a thread out there the models all show something. Bizarre!


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Winter 2018 - 42.5 inches
Winter 2017 - 24.5 inches
Winter 2016 - 41.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
Average Annual Snowfall (Est.) 25 inches
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telejunkie
post Dec 19 2013, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Dec 19 2013, 01:49 PM) *
yup very warm for the coastal plain but perhaps a hit for places inland..


yeah unfortunately any cold air has already been eroded from the region. Would guess any place cold enough for snow doesn't really get any precip per 12z Euro.
Okay so we need the GFS cold and the Euro track...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 19 2013, 01:58 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 19 2013, 02:19 PM
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This thread is for the christmas day snowstorm on the GGEM. EURO is not a supporter, but GFS is close to producing.
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