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> Feb 22nd MidAtl/NE light rain/snow event.., Reality: Short Range
Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2012, 06:45 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,535
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Altmar NY
Member No.: 16,547





18z nam 36 hrs

Attached File  18znam850mbTSLPp06036.gif ( 45K ) Number of downloads: 0



KBGM
QUOTE
THE FIRST UPR-LVL WAVE TO IMPACT NY/PA THIS PD IS
SLATED FOR WED AFTN AND EVE. THIS SYSTEM FEATURES A WELL DEVELOPED
JET CIRCULATION/BAND OF MID-LVL FGEN...SPCLY FROM ABT 21Z WED-
06Z THU. USING A BLEND OF HPC/GFS/NAM QPF`S...A GENERAL 0.25-0.5"
STRIPE IS PROGGED DURG THIS TIME FRAME ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYP IS CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT...BUT SINCE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LR`S ABV THE SFC-BASED LYR...THE
TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR AN INITIAL MIX TO GO OVER TO SNOW WITH
TIME...SPCLY AFTER SUNSET. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1-3" ON THE HILLTOPS...WITH VERY LTL IN THE VALLEYS.




KALB

QUOTE
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL ALLOW THE THERMAL GRADIENT /BAROCLINICITY/ TO
INCREASE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP EVOLVES
OVER THE STATE OF OHIO AND TRACKS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A RATHER ROBUST AREA OF 2D FGEN TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THIS ENHANCED BAND OF
PRECIP WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS THE DACKS WITH THE 12Z NAM
SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM IS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH SO WE WILL NUDGE THE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90. AS FOR PTYPE...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING. THE
COMBINATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE
PRECIP...SUGGESTS WITHIN THIS ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP THAT MOST OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THERE
COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AS LATEST QPF VALUES APPROACH ONE
HALF OF AN INCH AND APPLYING A 10:1 RATIO. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE
WITHIN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2012, 06:46 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,535
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Altmar NY
Member No.: 16,547





Forecast for here in the valley

QUOTE
Wednesday Night: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam...bTSLPp06036.gif
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2012, 06:49 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 17,535
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Altmar NY
Member No.: 16,547






18z gfs


Attached File  18zgfs850mbTSLPp06036.gif ( 46.5K ) Number of downloads: 0



Attached File  18zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif ( 46.89K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2012, 10:09 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 17,535
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Altmar NY
Member No.: 16,547






0z nam

Attached File  nam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.52K ) Number of downloads: 0



Attached File  nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.29K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2012, 11:00 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,535
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Altmar NY
Member No.: 16,547





Models continue to be bad..

12z gfs
Attached File  12zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif ( 46.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


0z gfs
Attached File  00zgfs850mbTSLPp06030.gif ( 46.73K ) Number of downloads: 0

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