 Dec. 14-16 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-4 Days Out) Forecasts |
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 Dec 13 2012, 01:19 AM
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#121
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 9,530 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713  |
0z Euro b@96 takes the low over northern LM and a secondary over MO/AR.
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Dec 13 2012, 01:24 AM
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#122
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,530 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
@120 over Ohio and transfers.
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Dec 13 2012, 09:06 AM
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#123
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
another decent shot at some snow for parts...
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Dec 13 2012, 09:19 AM
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#124
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,426 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 13 2012, 08:06 AM)  another decent shot at some snow for parts...
Those lucky Minnesota & Wisconsin folks. 
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Dec 13 2012, 09:43 AM
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#125
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Founding Member Posts: 126 Joined: 24-April 06 From: Menomonie, WI Member No.: 1,775 |
QUOTE(grace @ Dec 13 2012, 08:19 AM) Those lucky Minnesota & Wisconsin folks. Maybe for the far northern portions. I think all of these maps are counting on more cold air to be in place. This from MPX this morning... QUOTE FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODELS ARE HONING IN ON A SIMILAR STORM PATH WITH THE SFC LOW...GOING FROM SE CO FRIDAY...OVER TO NEAR THE QUAD CITIES SATURDAY...THEN OVER INTO LOWER MICH COME SUNDAY. OR MORE SIMPLY...WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENTLY FORE SEVERAL DAYS. TYPICALLY THIS PATH WOULD PUT THE MPX CWA WITHIN THE HEART OF A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL COLORADO LOW IN DECEMBER GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THE SYSTEM. EVEN THE ECMWF BY 06Z SAT /WHEN PRECIP WILL BE MOVING INTO SRN MN IN ERNEST/ HAS THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM CLEAR UP ACROSS NRN MN. FOR POPS ALONG WITH P-TYPE...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF IDEA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN -RA/-FZRA BEING THE P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z SAT. AFTER 12Z SAT...DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/DEEP LIFT WILL KNOCK OUT THE GREATER THAN FREEZING WARM NOSE ALOFT...WITH P-TYPE TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN. THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER THAT IS ABOVE FREEZING WILL END UP PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER PREDOMINATE P-TYPE IS RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS POINT...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE FROM WRN MN ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NW WI...WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. This will be a bust for almost everyone (if you like snow), in fact, I suspect it will wash most of what I have away.... -------------------- Visit early, visit often:
WxSteve's Real Time Data Hardware = Davis Vantage Pro 2 Software = Virtual Weather Station Computer = Dedicated 1.2ghz AMD Athlon |
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Dec 13 2012, 11:56 AM
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#126
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 387 Joined: 8-January 08 From: Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin Member No.: 12,135 |
Grasping at straws here but the GGEM is slightly cooler.
 versus GFS 
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Dec 14 2012, 08:40 AM
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#127
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
HPC...
 
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Dec 14 2012, 08:42 AM
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#128
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
Some much needed precip for parts of the region....
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Dec 14 2012, 09:02 AM
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#129
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,810 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
Coming together...
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Dec 14 2012, 11:56 PM
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#130
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 490 Joined: 29-June 11 From: Oshkosh, WI Member No.: 25,792 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 14 2012, 08:02 AM) Coming together... Perty, G! The snowfall totals for Dec 15-22 based on that one theory are showing a similar output. Somewhat interesting none the less. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory...aps-events.html (click on Dec 15-22 in the lower right column) And as you state, precip, precip, precip. No matter the form, we could all use some. -------------------- |
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Dec 15 2012, 04:33 AM
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#131
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,272 Joined: 23-March 08 From: Millersville, PA Member No.: 14,460 |
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...4&parm=pmsl
Can anyone explain the pressures around CO/NM mountain regions. It is really interesting to see the wind barbs as well. -------------------- Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/ Average: 23" 2008-2009 34" 148% of normal 2009-2010 74" 322% of normal 2010-2011 42" 183% of normal Coldest Temp: 10 Average: 40.1" Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july! |
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