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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Aug 22 2018, 08:06 PM
Post #281




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from NOAA http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/AFD.php

...CAT 4 Hurricane Lane is moving in a N/NE direction to the south and east of the Big Island of Hawaii...
forecasts take the storm dangerously close to the Islands...Hurricane and TS warnings are up...some forecasts predict upwards of 18 inches of rain and near 80 mph winds as Lane moves by the edges of the islands!
Attached File  rb_l.jpg ( 96.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


steering winds make this a dicey proposition...will the ridge projected to force it west turn it sooner or later?
Coriolis forces are already trying to "re-curve" this storm into a closer position off the west coast of Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 698.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


...as for "Sunny" California...our high is still displaced (somewhat) to the west of "normal"...large onshore push of low clouds all week with the slow passage of Low Pressure to the north...foggy coast...cool to warm inland... wink.gif
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 252.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looks to remain cooler all week...Lane will be passing near the island of Oahu Friday...TS or still a Hurricane?

This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 28 2018, 06:51 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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idecline
post Aug 28 2018, 06:48 PM
Post #282




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...one of the 'cooler' month's of August we have had around these parts...continued onshore push... >normal highs
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 707.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this weather looks to continue for awhile...especially with our 'mis-placed' high pressure again well to the West...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 262K ) Number of downloads: 0


...meanwhile as Hawaii tries to clean up from Hurricane Lane...the tropical Eastern Pacific is sending out more.
Attached File  rb_l.jpg ( 121.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Tropical Storm Miriam and now Depression 16
8/28/2018 5:25:00 PM
In the far western part of the East Pacific basin, Tropical Storm Miriam is located 1295 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This tropical cyclone has run into a ribbon of strong vertical wind shear and as a result the lower level circulation center is northwest of the intense showers and thunderstorms off to the east and southeast. Miriam has weakened slightly as a result of this strong shear. Once the shear drops off Miriam will still have time to strengthen as it moves over very warm water and moist, unstable air. These favorable conditions should cause Miriam to become a hurricane later tomorrow or tomorrow night only if the shear drops off. Miriam will pose no direct threat to land over at least the next five days, but large ocean swells generated by Miriam may cause higher surf along the east-facing coastlines of Hawaii toward the end of this week.

Tropical depression 16 is about 410 miles to the south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The newly formed tropical depression is moving west northwest at 10 mph. Tropical Depression 16 will be moving over warm water and through an environment of low vertical wind shear and sufficient moist unstable air. These favorable environmental conditions should support intensification into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. It will then take the name Norman. The tropical cyclone will intensify further and should become a hurricane Thursday. Norman to be, should move on a mostly westerly course for the next 5-7 days. This will take the developing tropical storm away from the west coast of Mexico. At this point current information suggests this system will be no direct threat to land for at least the next 5-7 days.

Lane is a tropical depression and continues to move away from Hawaii. A combination of drier stable air and very strong vertical wind shear will continue to weaken the system and it will likely become a remnant non-tropical low pressure area tonight or early tomorrow.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 29 2018, 06:44 PM
Post #283




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...interesting day...70's all over the Bay Area...even parts of San Francisco were warmer than expected...
still cooler than average inland...looks like some tropical moisture bands will roll across the area tonight...giving us a pretty sunset...doubt that there is enough lift and instability for any precipitation...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 721.78K ) Number of downloads: 0

...meanwhile in the tropical Eastern Pacific it looks as if both Miriam and Norman are both now Hurricanes...only CAT1 at this point...Miriam is well south and east of Hawaii, and has been getting some shear to keep it from intensifying...it should insensify briefly before being pulled to the NW...going to the east of the Hawaiian chain...Norman is going to intensify as it moves west...still a long way from Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.18MB ) Number of downloads: 0

...it will be awhile before we know the ultimate outcome of Norman...some tropical energy may still reach Hawaii later in September(IMHO)...the 'dis-placed' high may direct another storm (if this pattern continues)...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 30 2018, 07:58 PM
Post #284




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...same old pattern through the weekend...just a bit cooler right along the coast...with warmer inland temps.
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 742.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

...Hurricane Miriam is being pulled apart well east of Hawaii...Hurricane Norman is already quite spiffy...a CAT4...!
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.18MB ) Number of downloads: 0

...a bit of moisture is being brought up into California...the remnants of Miriam should give us some also...Norman is going nicely...let's see how long he lasts...he is forecast to head west and lose intensity as it moves towards the Hawaiian Island chain...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 5 2018, 08:47 PM
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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 680.57K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.21MB ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Olivia, a Category 2 hurricane, is currently centered about 960 miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Olivia is expected to remain a hurricane over the next few days. However, Olivia will pose no direct impact to land through Sunday. Beyond Sunday Olivia is expected to move on a west to west northwest course. This could take Olivia close enough to the Hawaiian islands to bring some wind and rain around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Since the exact track Olivia will take is difficult to determine at this time, the amount of rain and wind generated over the Islands from Olivia is also uncertain at this time. Residents and interests on the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the movement of Olivia this weekend and early next week.


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 10 2018, 08:36 PM
Post #286




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...ummm...Olivia is "only" a tropical storm...going to cross E-W across the Hawaiian Islands...nasty...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 717.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

...our weather in SF Bay Area remains fairly cool for early September...with only 90's far inland...60's, 70's near coast and bays...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 263.05K ) Number of downloads: 0

...as tropical storm moves across the Hawaiian Islands...North Carolina coast will be pummeled by dangerous Hurricane Florence...a CAT4 storm at this time...the wind field and storm surge will be widespread...also continued rainfall from the storm will make flooding possible from inland rainfall runoff towards a possibly already flooded coastline... blink.gif ...this could be a terrible event for the mid-Atlantic area...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 11 2018, 05:14 PM
Post #287




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...cooling will continue after today as feature from the north will depress high pressure...subtle change in flow
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 693.66K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we are 'stuck' in a cool late summer pattern...the stratus layer is determining our winds and overcast layers

...Olivia is going to cross the Hawaiian Island chain in the next 24 hours as a Tropical Storm...water vapor shows a lot of disorganization...along with shear pulling away some the higher cloudtops...still a lot of rain to be had...
Tropics are still very active... blink.gif
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.14MB ) Number of downloads: 0


...not to mention Florence and her CAT4 continue to bear down on Carolina region heading for landfall...



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 17 2018, 08:11 PM
Post #288




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...howdy... cool.gif
...the "exciting" weather out here in California is making the front page...??? ...not... ...Carolina's...yes! dry.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 732.48K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we are in the midst of a sudden cooler regime...it hints a bit of Fall...the days are getting shorter and the sun angle lower...mornings have been cool.with the marine layer and fog cooling us even inland into low 50's and high 40's at night...it looks as if a warm-up is in store by the end of the week...with 80's and 90's in the valleys, warmer as you get farther from the Bay and coastline...here is OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 248.89K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a small low pressure system is to our north by Friday morning which should 'pump up' our ridge...giving a little more sunshine ...even at the coast we should get decent sunshine part of the day...is our weather going to warm up for awhile? ...quite often the Bay Area gets some of it's hottest weather during September into early October...the onshore 'push' starts to wane...and quite often fall heat waves occur during periods of "Off-shore Flow"...it can even reach high 90's to 100's along the immediate coastline ...of course, this creates 'high fire danger' so most of us don't really wish for a strong gradient that creates high winds...just a nice warm fall would be good...plus it is often the case that we have very little rainfall until late October...especially in 'possible' El Nino years...(another dry year is not what we need, a wet rainy season(Oct.-Mar.) is preferred... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Sep 18 2018, 08:38 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 18 2018, 08:37 PM
Post #289




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...AccuWeather...special report US Weather by idee... laugh.gif
Attached File  isawvchpac.gif ( 789.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this is the WV view of the CONUS...showing drier air in the yellows into reds and moister air as greens...
...warming a bit into Thursday across California...a large outbreak of monsoon flow will roar into AZ and NM spreading heavy rains for the next few days...severe weather may occur into the Plains Wed./Thu. and then into Great Lakes and NorthEast as a front moves quickly across the northern tier...possible flooding rain into TX/OK into the weekend also as the moist air from Mexico is brought north...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 747.32K ) Number of downloads: 0

California is staying dry for awhile...the remains of front may drag through with associated wind shifts...warming a bit by Thursday with near normal temperatures...no big changes out west as HP rules...


This post has been edited by idecline: Sep 18 2018, 08:41 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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