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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Undertakerson
post Jun 30 2017, 05:56 PM
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Sooo many "swirlies"

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Phased Vort
post Jun 30 2017, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 30 2017, 05:56 PM) *
Sooo many "swirlies"

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18Z brought that tropical cyclone signal further south as well into the extreme northeastern Caribbean.

This run also develops another system behind the first one the 18Z takes to the Bahamas.

It's possible that by next wednesday the 5th of July, we could have the respective invest for the sistem the 18Z takes to the Bahamas.


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risingriver
post Jun 30 2017, 11:23 PM
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Don't read any Henry Margusity Tweets.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 1 2017, 05:56 PM
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18z GFS went gonzo on this run O_o;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;


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Undertakerson
post Jul 1 2017, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 1 2017, 06:56 PM) *
18z GFS went gonzo on this run O_o;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

Just came by to see if you were on that run, Ron. Um, yeah - that would be quite the bad scene. Easily a major cane that rakes the entire E C of FL and slams into Hilton Head?

That will get the boys at TWC talkin.

For some reason though, I've noticed that the past couple 18z runs have ALL made this out to be more than the previous runs of the day suggested. Not sure what's going on there.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 1 2017, 06:05 PM
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Not quite Matthew (2016) but darned close on that run.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 1 2017, 06:07 PM
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If Ensembles support Op run, then - OK maybe, if not = hard to believe one Op run (esp. 18zGFS) For example, GFS-p has nothing during same time pd.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 1 2017, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 1 2017, 07:05 PM) *
Not quite Matthew (2016) but darned close on that run.


I was thinking Andrew for a minute when the ridge bridged and sent it west. Andrew was forecast to move WNW when the ridge built in and sent it right towards us.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 1 2017, 06:24 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 1 2017, 07:07 PM) *
If Ensembles support Op run, then - OK maybe, if not = hard to believe one Op run (esp. 18zGFS) For example, GFS-p has nothing during same time pd.


So far so good...
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 1 2017, 06:27 PM
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Similar track as Bertha in 96, same time frame too:




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Undertakerson
post Jul 1 2017, 07:35 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 1 2017, 07:24 PM) *
So far so good...

A couple mainland hits in the set

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Undertakerson
post Jul 1 2017, 07:36 PM
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Holding at 40% on the 5 day

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NorEaster07
post Jul 1 2017, 08:06 PM
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Latest GFS...still got it. 8 of last 10 runs?
For the 1st time hits land.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 2 2017, 04:05 AM
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FWIW - 00z GEF member that is the worst case scenario for Florida. Takes a path from near Canaveral or so to the W Coast and then takes the E GOM up to Tallahassee - all while what looks to be Hurricane Force.

Good thing it's only one of the two ensembles that make landfall run.

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Edit - looking more closely, P002 also makes landfall with a tropical system... in MAINE huh.gif blink.gif

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 2 2017, 04:08 AM
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MaineJay
post Jul 2 2017, 05:02 AM
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SSTs are a bit marginal in this area, but progged to warm quickly. The last 6 days are a forecast on these. I had to squash them down to 500 pixels, so any distorting is cause by that.

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I added the salinity because the fresh water from the Amazon looks cool.

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https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcic...2/ATLANTIC.html

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 2 2017, 05:03 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

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stretchct
post Jul 2 2017, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 30 2017, 04:31 PM) *
Buy insurance. smile.gif Thoughts like that are detectable by tropical entities,

One of the benefits of being here and having the GFS out to 384 is when you see it consistently show a storm, you buy insurance. Just remember to buy it before its named. Oh and I included hurricane evacuation coverage.

Don't like the 6z going west, but expected it to.


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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
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stretchct
post Jul 2 2017, 09:11 AM
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Euro has the wave, similar to 0z gfs. Doesn't show on the 500mb/mslp map but can track the moisture on the surface map on the accupro.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NorEaster07
post Jul 2 2017, 12:10 PM
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Canadian joins the GFS

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Phased Vort
post Jul 2 2017, 12:26 PM
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ECMWF has the wave energy more pfonounced early on. Then, it becames weaker as it heads towards the Bahamas.

Many models now have the signal and the NHC, as posted above, has noticed it and highlighted the possibility on the 5 day forecast.


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NorEaster07
post Jul 2 2017, 06:56 PM
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From Levi

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/...633560121278465

"The para GFS now develops the Atlantic disturbance. This is notable because this is first MDR TC this model has shown, compared to op's many"
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