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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Jul 4 2017, 01:38 PM
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The 00z ECMWF develops another african wave as invest 94L reaches the southeast coast waters.


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NorEaster07
post Jul 5 2017, 02:52 PM
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Joe C yesterday Echoing my thoughts that a tropical system wont be affecting Eastern U.S (north of southeast mostly) with these digging troughs around.

Good video by him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olw5mdjlvNM


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Phased Vort
post Jul 6 2017, 01:02 PM
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If you like aggressive model runs as it pertrains to ttopocal activity and possoble tracking all the way to the US, the 12Z GFS is for you.

Big run for trackers.


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Undertakerson
post Jul 6 2017, 03:03 PM
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12 UKIE is trying to play the role of Phoenix maker.

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I believe it was just the other day that I mentioned that the warmer waters off the FL give TD4 half a chance.

We shall see.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2017, 02:53 AM
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QUOTE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070237
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017

The depression continues to be poorly organized this evening.
Recent scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is losing
definition, with the center in that data well to the southeast of
the remaining convection. A complication, though, is recent
observations from NOAA buoy 41041 that suggest the possibility of a
second center closer to the remaining convection and well to the
north of the center seen in the scatterometer data. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based mainly on the scatterometer data. It
is possible that the system has already degenerated to an open wave,
but for now advisories will be maintained until visible imagery
becomes available Friday morning.

The depression should continue to lose organization due to
entrainment of dry air and developing southwesterly shear. The new
intensity forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a
remnant low between 12 and 24 h and become a open wave after 72 h.
Both of these events could occur earlier than current forecast.
It should be noted that the UKMET model suggests the possibility
the system could regenerate near the end of the forecast period
.
However, the other large-scale models do not yet support this
scenario.

A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should
steer it westward to west-northwestward until dissipation. The new
forecast track lies near the model consensus and is a little to the
south of the previous track.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2017, 03:16 AM
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CMC actually also joins the UKIE with the idea that whatever is left of TD4, gets new life just off the Fl coast, once it hits the warmest SST's.

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MaineJay
post Jul 7 2017, 03:49 AM
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7.0z ECMWF rakes the lesser Antilles with a wave off Africa.

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2017, 03:49 AM
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The Professor continues to try to take the other models to tropical forecasting school.




QUOTE
There is one important caveat to note and
that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and
even strengthening in 96 and 120 h
when the system is approaching
the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not
show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar
improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120
h
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MaineJay
post Jul 7 2017, 03:54 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 7 2017, 04:49 AM) *
The Professor continues to try to take the other models to tropical forecasting school.


The UKie has consistently held the top spot for MSLP verification in the tropics at all lead times.


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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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stretchct
post Jul 7 2017, 07:18 AM
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Well the GFS is a little too close for comfort. We leave Jamaica the next day, Tuesday.
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0z has it winding down, but hitting Jamaica square late Tuesday

The Euro also has it, but sends it further east

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This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 7 2017, 07:21 AM


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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
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2012-2013 64.5"
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Phased Vort
post Jul 7 2017, 08:52 AM
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Folks, just be aware there's dicussion on two different tropical systems going on in this thread.

Actually, one is about TD4, which should be in the TD4 thread.

The other system, from the wave that should leave Africa early next week, and both the GFS and ECMWF develop, is okay to continue in this thread.


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stretchct
post Jul 7 2017, 01:44 PM
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Well I may be stuck down there per 12z gfs.



OR they may send us home early.. this looks scarier.





--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 7 2017, 07:58 PM
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Just gonna drop this little GFS nugget of doom in here O_o That is not a good set up for the NE that run. 384hrs out so not hyperventilating yet lol...have some oxygen!
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 7 2017, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 7 2017, 08:58 PM) *
Just gonna drop this little GFS nugget of doom in here O_o That is not a good set up for the NE that run. 384hrs out so not hyperventilating yet lol...have some oxygen!



I doubt that is realistic... i think that dry air would make it a weaker hurricane by the time it moves up past nc... that's what happens most of the time. but gfs has it strengthening, nah.


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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2017, 03:42 AM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 7 2017, 08:58 PM) *
Just gonna drop this little GFS nugget of doom in here O_o That is not a good set up for the NE that run. 384hrs out so not hyperventilating yet lol...have some oxygen!

Don't worry Ron, take a hit of that O and double check the espresso supply


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MaineJay
post Jul 8 2017, 03:54 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 8 2017, 04:42 AM) *
Don't worry Ron, take a hit of that O and double check the espresso supply



It's a very Matthew-esque path on the 8.0z GFS. Not exact, but similar.

On a side, Levi Cowan has added the parallel HWRF and the new HMON models to tropical tidbits. Bye bye GFDL, you shall not be missed.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 8 2017, 03:55 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2017, 04:01 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 8 2017, 04:54 AM) *
It's a very Matthew-esque path on the 8.0z GFS. Not exact, but similar.

On a side, Levi Cowan has added the parallel HWRF and the new HMON models to tropical tidbits. Bye bye GFDL, you shall not be missed.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0

Speaking of para models - the GFS-P has virtually no storm whatsoever, during the time period that the GFS Operational has a buzz saw of varying size and strength and location. The Para was never on board with 94L/TD04, so...
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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2017, 04:26 AM
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00z GEFS Member - landfall near Inner Harbor? blink.gif

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Yeah - right! laugh.gif
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2017, 04:29 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 8 2017, 04:42 AM) *
Don't worry Ron, take a hit of that O and double check the espresso supply


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Woke up at 5am on a Saturday morning, felt a disturbance in the force. Checked the 0z and did a double take O_o I doubt a storm would recover like that after a direct hit on Hispaniola. For their sake I hope that's just another phantom run.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2017, 12:52 PM
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12zGFS went Hurricane Earl on us, sent the African wave into Mexico. Think this run was an outlier, as the ensembles had a completely different idea.


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