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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 23 2017, 01:52 PM
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Hurricane season starts in 5 weeks and with all the action we saw in the Caribbean last year it's definitely something worth keeping an eye out on!
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stretchct
post Jun 7 2017, 07:26 AM
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GFS has been hinting at development in the Caribbean since the 12z run on Monday. CMC also popping a low at hr 240. Euro is quiet, EPS piles up energy into the Yucatan channel area.

Yesterdays 0z gfs
Attached Image


Todays 6z run
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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 7 2017, 02:00 PM
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And the 12z run puts it over the Yucatan and into Mexico as a wave or weak LP


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 7 2017, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 7 2017, 03:00 PM) *
And the 12z run puts it over the Yucatan and into Mexico as a wave or weak LP

And 18z takes it up through the Gulf States as a heavy rainer, but not particularly strong system. Following the energy out, this run takes it up the MS river where it merges with a Canadian shortwave.

Not that the latter part of that is likely to happen.
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 8 2017, 12:46 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 7 2017, 07:23 PM) *
And 18z takes it up through the Gulf States as a heavy rainer, but not particularly strong system. Following the energy out, this run takes it up the MS river where it merges with a Canadian shortwave.

Not that the latter part of that is likely to happen.


Last 4 runs on the GFS takes this up into the LA area. the 12z GFS showed it disorganized and dropping 7-9 inches of rain in 24 hours O_o;;;;;
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stretchct
post Jun 9 2017, 03:29 PM
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Still there today - forms off Yucatan and goes into Campeche then Mexico.



Euro is weaker but has a signal for it.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jun 9 2017, 03:32 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 9 2017, 06:46 PM
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18z went all Fujiwara on us tonight O_o;;; laugh.gif

Aww crud you gotta click on the image to see the animation....is pretty neat though lol

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 9 2017, 06:47 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 9 2017, 06:50 PM
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I'll also add this from the same 18z run, Caribbean cruiser with a classic signature O_o
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 10 2017, 12:25 PM
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12z goes Hermine 2.0 for the Panhandle with a 980mb hurricane this run O_o
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risingriver
post Jun 10 2017, 09:30 PM
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Long, long, long way out, but the models are sniffing around. What do non computer forecasting methods suggest? BSR, etc...

This post has been edited by risingriver: Jun 10 2017, 09:30 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 11 2017, 01:08 PM
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soooooo quiet in here ph34r.gif


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DrewNola
post Jun 11 2017, 06:26 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 10 2017, 09:30 PM) *
Long, long, long way out, but the models are sniffing around. What do non computer forecasting methods suggest? BSR, etc...



From MSY Weather office today: "Regarding what models are indicating possible developments in the
Caribbean Sea next weekend, there is some run-to-run consistency
developing on a closed circulation moving into the Yucatan
Peninsula and Belize next weekend then emerging into the Bay of
Campeche. There is abundant time to monitor and model solutions
may bounce a bit with trends, but something certainly worth
watching. Locally, not expecting any direct impacts but could see
a potential of tightening easterly gradient that may have an
influence on tide levels late next weekend into the early part of
next week. 24/RR"
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MaineJay
post Jun 11 2017, 08:39 PM
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Hard to trust the GFS apparently.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/EricBlake12/stat...947551128588288



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stretchct
post Jun 12 2017, 08:18 AM
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GFS still....
Euro is similar to first picture below
Attached Image


But Euro keeps at 1008 off Corpus Christi whereas GFS goes to 1000

Attached Image


Should also note the 12z euro yesterday does drop to 1004 as the LP rolls around/across Yucatan into Bay of Campeche


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 12 2017, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 10 2017, 10:30 PM) *
Long, long, long way out, but the models are sniffing around. What do non computer forecasting methods suggest? BSR, etc...




Attached Image





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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 12 2017, 04:35 PM
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stretchct
post Jun 13 2017, 08:47 AM
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Euro and GFS still showing weak storm in Bay of Campeche. SSTs and anomalies are favorable.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Of course Levi's graphics are better.
Attached Image


Not sure if Accupro will ever be updated again now that Henry is gone.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 14 2017, 08:55 AM
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Euro with a strike in TX - leads to over 7" of rain.



0z GFS hits south of the border. 6z is the first run I've seen in maybe a week that didn't have it.

6z gfs para still had it though


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 15 2017, 05:41 AM
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stretchct
post Jun 15 2017, 10:50 AM
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Finally got a look at the Euro. Takes it to a 1000mb low in the Bay of Campeche, weakens, and not even sure the CoC makes landfall. It does hit the westerlies though impacting East TX, LA and MS with a lot of rain - 7 to 10 inches - from the 22nd to 25th.


GFS 0z and 6z have competing weak lp's - one in the gulf, one in Campeche. GFS para brings it over Cuba and fires it up off Florida, while sending another one through the Carribean

CMC - when doesn't it like a cyclone. It forms one SW of the Caymans, runs it through the Yucatan channel and into the FL panhandle to off Hatteras.



So we're at the dartboard stage it seems.

8am tropical disco


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



This post has been edited by stretchct: Jun 15 2017, 10:55 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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SaintCabbage
post Jun 15 2017, 12:29 PM
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GFS interesting for JAX today!

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