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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Jun 15 2017, 02:27 PM
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12Z ECMWF stronger with the system as it comes onshore around the southernmost area of Texas. Probably a mid level to a strong tropical storm; 996mb.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 15 2017, 02:45 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 15 2017, 03:27 PM) *
12Z ECMWF stronger with the system as it comes onshore around the southernmost area of Texas. Probably a mid level to a strong tropical storm; 996mb.


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12z GFS virtually lost it this run. Brings the idea of a broad area of a ULL that sweeps across the Yucatan into the bay of campeche. If I am understanding it properly is seems as though the GFS has the energy there but breaks it into regions one of which, the more potent piece, gets flung into Florida and brings a wave of LP at the surface with possibly some copious rains should help a lot of the southeast with any remaining drought while the other weaker piece goes along with the ULL west into mexico and throws some moisture into southern texas. I unfortunately dont have access to intra 12 hour Euro but would assume that the energies are more cohesive and ramp the system up. The biggest thing will be watching what happens in the mid latitudes with troughs trying to swing down.

The GFS shows ridging building into the SW of the U.S. and SE of FL with you guessed it that troughing signature there in the GOM. Something of course to watch and should know better by the end of the weekend how things will be handled.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 16 2017, 04:52 AM
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MaineJay
post Jun 16 2017, 06:01 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 16 2017, 05:52 AM) *

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Some ECMWF ensembles toying with it.

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stretchct
post Jun 16 2017, 07:19 AM
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This mornings tally:

Euro hits mexico with weak TS
GFS meanders in Gulf and dissipates, if it even ever devlops.
GFS-P has a 994 low hitting FL panhandle and heading out the SC coast
CMC looks like the GFS-P
NAVGEM runs it just west of NOLA
JMA Nothing but a weak low around the yucatan

GFS ensemble member slip after hr 90 with half going into FL and out SC the other half toward TX

NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow
development is possible during the next few days while the wave
moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 16 2017, 03:45 PM
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Caribbean Disturbance looks to be developing a low level spin near or just northeast off the coast of Honduras over the western Caribbean Sea. This has a great convective pattern evident with the showers and storms all around the circulation, once it consolidates some, than we will have a better chance at development before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 16 2017, 03:48 PM
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Circulation looks about 2/3rds or 3/4ths done or complete, with westerly winds off the coast of Honduras and easterly winds to the north of the westerly winds, there are no northerly winds however.
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stretchct
post Jun 16 2017, 05:54 PM
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Add the NAM to the models showing this. Takes it through the Yucatan channel into the Gulf. Seems to want to bend it west, cold front advancing over the CONUS.

18z GFS back on board as well.. goes into the FL panhandle. GFS-p closer to FL coast but into the panhandle as well.

CMC with one through the channel and another into Campeche.



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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stxprowl
post Jun 17 2017, 12:43 AM
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From yesterday. https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017...bean/102923154/
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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 05:08 AM
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Euro/UKIE combo is hard to beat and they say the developed system stays in the western Gulf basin. GFS/CMC seem to suggest otherwise.


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MaineJay
post Jun 17 2017, 05:43 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 17 2017, 06:08 AM) *
Euro/UKIE combo is hard to beat and they say the developed system stays in the western Gulf basin. GFS/CMC seem to suggest otherwise.


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Day 5 verification for tropical regions
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48 hour blended PWATs, little swirl south of Jamaica perhaps?

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 17 2017, 05:44 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 06:36 AM
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I thought I had kept up with these, but one snuck past me. Possible RECON?

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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 06:40 AM
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Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's a signal from the OFM that the Atl ridge will place so as to promote favorable environment during the second week of July. Along with that, a system of moderate to strong strength (forming again in the lower Caribbean) is also an increasing possibility.

Back to the discussion about the nearer term threat, already in progress.... laugh.gif
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 08:32 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 17 2017, 07:40 AM) *
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's a signal from the OFM that the Atl ridge will place so as to promote favorable environment during the second week of July. Along with that, a system of moderate to strong strength (forming again in the lower Caribbean) is also an increasing possibility.

Back to the discussion about the nearer term threat, already in progress.... laugh.gif


July!? Man we gotta survive June first! LOL...
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Phased Vort
post Jun 17 2017, 09:30 AM
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Oh the excitment!!

Love you guys!!


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MaineJay
post Jun 17 2017, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 17 2017, 07:40 AM) *
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's a signal from the OFM that the Atl ridge will place so as to promote favorable environment during the second week of July. Along with that, a system of moderate to strong strength (forming again in the lower Caribbean) is also an increasing possibility.

Back to the discussion about the nearer term threat, already in progress.... laugh.gif


Pretty substantial Aleutian ridge on the 8-14 day analogs, I think that jives with what you are saying.
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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 11:28 AM
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12z GFS and CMC are both west of their previous runs at 6z and 12z. Both show a landfalling system near Mobile, AL. Earlier runs were closer to the Big Bend of Fl. Not a huge shift west, but a shift nonetheless
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 11:41 AM
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Recon planned for Caribbean, and possible MDR system too:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171631
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 17 JUNE 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1730Z C. 19/0945Z
D. 20.0N 86.5W D. 22.0N 87.5W
E. 18/1930Z TO 18/2330Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF ABOVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST
OF TRINIDAD NEAR 9.5N 58.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
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stretchct
post Jun 17 2017, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 17 2017, 07:40 AM) *
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's a signal from the OFM that the Atl ridge will place so as to promote favorable environment during the second week of July. Along with that, a system of moderate to strong strength (forming again in the lower Caribbean) is also an increasing possibility.

Back to the discussion about the nearer term threat, already in progress.... laugh.gif

Not cool. I'm in Jamaica then.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 26 2017, 05:39 AM
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LR GFS starting to show signs of increased tropical activity in both the lower Caribbean (S of Yucatan), as already mentioned - PLUS now, a signal out of the archipelago region.

Action looks to pick up very swiftly - end of the first week of July
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