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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Jun 26 2017, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 26 2017, 05:39 AM) *
LR GFS starting to show signs of increased tropical activity in both the lower Caribbean (S of Yucatan), as already mentioned - PLUS now, a signal out of the archipelago region.

Action looks to pick up very swiftly - end of the first week of July



Your western caribbean signal interpretation and the increased african wave activity signals talked about in the eastern atlantic thread look to get active almost simultaneously.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 26 2017, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 26 2017, 11:19 AM) *
Your western caribbean signal interpretation and the increased african wave activity signals talked about in the eastern atlantic thread look to get active almost simultaneously.

Indeed, the LR GFS is starting to pick up on this - including a seemingly unlikely three members that have landfall (or very close) somewhere in the So. MidAtl.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 26 2017, 05:06 PM
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DrewNola
post Jun 26 2017, 06:27 PM
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Hard to see exactly but if my untrained eyes see, Caribbean towards n central gulf and to the mid Atlantic?
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Phased Vort
post Sep 18 2017, 06:51 PM
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We should keep a look over the western Caribbean for tropical development.

I have noticed a continued area of lower pressures south of western Cuba towards the small central America countries.

Something may get going there 10 to 12 days from now, especially if high pressure flow is directed towards the GOMEX,


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Phased Vort
post Sep 20 2017, 01:34 PM
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I continue to like this area of the tropical Atlantic ocean, especially the western section, for tropical development during the end of September and early October.

Still think that a broad area of lower heights (lower pressure), may give rise to a tropical cyclone, especially given the high SSTs and generally lighter shear.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2017, 07:16 PM
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I continue to support the idea that there should be tropical development either in the GOMEX or the western Caribbean in the next 10 days, as I mentioned about a week ago.

I favor the western Caribbean, but the similar conditions for development apply for the southeastern GOMEX near the Yucatan.

And I believe the GFS, although its the long range, does have a pretty good idea for the western Caribbean and even for the southeast GOMEX.

The ECMWF, also long range, is going towards the development idea, showing a broad area of constant lower pressures, and trying to focus on in a center.


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MaineJay
post Sep 26 2017, 05:07 AM
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MJO discussion

QUOTE
The focus for tropical cyclone (TC) development is expected to shift to the western Caribbean Sea during the September 27-October 3 period. The main development region of the Atlantic basin typically becomes less active during October, while the Caribbean Sea is a more active region for TC genesis. Based on the GEFS and ECMWF models along with climatology, the chances for TC development are forecast to increase across the southwest Caribbean Sea, during early October. Environmental conditions are favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 48 hours near the southwest coast of Mexico where very heavy rainfall is likely. High confidence exists for another tropical cyclone to form over the east Pacific from September 27-October 3. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates and forecasts on tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...zards/index.php


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 26 2017, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07 AM) *



Yep.

Exactly what I have been expecting since about 7 days ago or so.


Additionanaly, there should be a high pressure ridge anchored over the SE / south central US, which may spell trouble for the Texas coast. However, if that ridge is a retreating feature, then the rest of the GOMEX coast and may even Florida may be a target.


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Undertakerson
post Sep 27 2017, 03:44 PM
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Well, the Euro is currently "buying" the notion


Attached Image


And the GFS


Attached Image


The problem this Forum will have is determining in which topic thread to discuss it.

Euro uses energy that clearly is s/w Caribbean spawn. The GFS does as well, but the surface reflection does not appear until late and makes it seem as if it "just came out of nothing" until it is in the Atl Straits or E GOM - so will appear to be appropriate in that thread.

I believe this thread to be the correct one - if you follow the vorts you can see the GFS uses W Caribbean energy to form its storm as well.

Only the Lord knows what the CMS is trying to do. rolleyes.gif

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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Sep 27 2017, 04:09 PM
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GFS shows about 15 inches of rain in Miami between October 5-8. I really hope this pattern is not as rainy as the model shows.

This post has been edited by Its_Miller_A_Time: Sep 27 2017, 04:09 PM
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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 27 2017, 03:44 PM) *
Well, the Euro is currently "buying" the notion


Attached Image


And the GFS


Attached Image


The problem this Forum will have is determining in which topic thread to discuss it.

Euro uses energy that clearly is s/w Caribbean spawn. The GFS does as well, but the surface reflection does not appear until late and makes it seem as if it "just came out of nothing" until it is in the Atl Straits or E GOM - so will appear to be appropriate in that thread.

I believe this thread to be the correct one - if you follow the vorts you can see the GFS uses W Caribbean energy to form its storm as well.

Only the Lord knows what the CMS is trying to do. rolleyes.gif



I agree with UTS.

The energy is from the western Caribbean, and the development starts in the western Caribbean. So this should be discussed here, and then on to itīs appropriate invest thread when NHC adds the lemon X on itīs site.





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Phased Vort
post Sep 28 2017, 05:30 PM
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18Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF are telling us that indeed there should be tropical development over the western Caribbean in about 8 to 9 days from now.


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Undertakerson
post Sep 28 2017, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 28 2017, 06:30 PM) *
18Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF are telling us that indeed there should be tropical development over the western Caribbean in about 8 to 9 days from now.

Yes - especially the 18zGFS should get the Florida folks full attention. Euro seems to form a system but pushes it east (?)



Honestly, there is so much vortex action down there and the SSTs are more than adequate to sustain anyone (or two) of them that try to get it going. Then the issue becomes, where next?

As we've seen this season, the computer models are not really a huge help at this lead time. And the difference from GFS to Euro, ATTM, are ridiculously beyond what we've seen with the past few storms - as far as the H5 anoms are concerned.



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Phased Vort
post Sep 28 2017, 08:35 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 28 2017, 05:56 PM) *
Yes - especially the 18zGFS should get the Florida folks full attention. Euro seems to form a system but pushes it east (?)
Honestly, there is so much vortex action down there and the SSTs are more than adequate to sustain anyone (or two) of them that try to get it going. Then the issue becomes, where next?

As we've seen this season, the computer models are not really a huge help at this lead time. And the difference from GFS to Euro, ATTM, are ridiculously beyond what we've seen with the past few storms - as far as the H5 anoms are concerned.



Agreed.

The idea I have had since about last week, is shown by the models, but yea, which vort will give birth to a new tropical cyclone is really impossible to know which at this stage with the actual model time range. The fact is that the broad western Caribbean lower pressure area, will allow for all these vorts to be candidates for cyclogenesis.


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Undertakerson
post Sep 29 2017, 05:24 PM
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Well, seems like the 18zGFS is the run hour that constantly tries to make something in the medium to long range.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0

Yet a very strong continental ridge seems to create only so much of an avenue for the cyclone to travel and affect US. Unfortunately, RoninMiami will have another one to sweat out.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 29 2017, 08:56 PM
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12Z Tropical Cyclone Genesis Ensemble - GFS - CMC - ECMWF (Hour 120 through 240)

Attached Image


We can see from where the vort for this possible development should originate.


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Phased Vort
post Oct 2 2017, 10:45 AM
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The development we have been talking about for the western Caribbean should start to manifest itself by the end of this week or during the weekend.

The ECMWF still gives support to this idea.

"Trofing" over the eastern Ohio valley and then towards the eastern US, should try to bring whatever tropical cyclone develops, northeastward towards Florida.

Given the ECMWF support, I believe itīs something we may want to monitor.


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risingriver
post Oct 2 2017, 07:58 PM
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This is a discussion? smile.gif
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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 2 2017, 07:58 PM) *
This is a discussion? smile.gif



biggrin.gif It was supposed to be, but itīs not attracting much interest it seems.

12Z GFS is on board as of now.

Cyclogenesis over the SW Caribbean, then tropical cyclone goes to the Yucatan, then into the GOMEX, tracks to the center of the GOMEX and then goes towards Louisiana.


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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 12:25 PM
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00Z UKMET:

Attached Image


00Z CMC:

Attached Image


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