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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
Ron in Miami
post Apr 23 2017, 01:52 PM
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Hurricane season starts in about 5 weeks, and with all the fronts rolling off the east coast I wouldn't rule out seeing something pop off here.
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Phased Vort
post Aug 19 2017, 11:17 PM
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There may be the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing off the southeast coast somewhere over the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastal waters sometime by the next weekend in and around August 26 through 28.

There will be left behind pieces of energy, or a piece of a stalled out cold front as the main cold front leaves and a high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

That combination may lead to something trying to organize.

Letīs see if something at least tries to form.



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Undertakerson
post Aug 20 2017, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 20 2017, 12:17 AM) *
There may be the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing off the southeast coast somewhere over the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastal waters sometime by the next weekend in and around August 26 through 28.

There will be left behind pieces of energy, or a piece of a stalled out cold front as the main cold front leaves and a high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

That combination may lead to something trying to organize.

Letīs see if something at least tries to form.

This picture is a tell all - we have Harvey remnant energy, 92L energy, and incoming trough energy - all within relatively small frame. What happens exactly when is the question to be resolved. This has the potential to become big if they hit the same place/time - or to stay all apart and be not much more than typical moderate to heavy rain across the south. And that's just what could go on in the Gulf.

All this could combine in some form or fashion, off the EC.

So many possibilities


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Phased Vort
post Aug 20 2017, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 20 2017, 10:56 AM) *
This picture is a tell all - we have Harvey remnant energy, 92L energy, and incoming trough energy - all within relatively small frame. What happens exactly when is the question to be resolved. This has the potential to become big if they hit the same place/time - or to stay all apart and be not much more than typical moderate to heavy rain across the south. And that's just what could go on in the Gulf.

All this could combine in some form or fashion, off the EC.

So many possibilities


Attached Image


12Z GFS is really showing this southeast development occuring with the mixing of energies from 92L and dying stalled out front over the southeast offshore waters.

Then, if the atlantic high pressure ridge and the building in great lakes high ridge combine and close the escape path to the NE over the Atlantic, this system could be pushed to the west towards the coast.


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SnowMan11
post Aug 20 2017, 11:48 AM
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GFS develops a strong storm but stays well offshore

CMC hits SE Florida and then rides just offshore and then goes OTS


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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 144:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 168:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:52 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 192:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:53 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 216:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 22 2017, 07:04 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 22 2017, 02:53 PM) *
12Z ECMWF hour 216:

Attached Image

Several GEFS members in support of the idea. An interesting Nor'easter out of what was once 92L. (at least a piece of it that is)
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Phased Vort
post Aug 23 2017, 02:58 PM
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12Z ECMWF develops a storm pretty close to the coast of Florida and then continues to stay close to the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, including the outter backs then it heads ENE out to sea.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 11 2017, 05:45 PM
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We should watch this area for development about 15 days from now.

I have seen some 500 mb vort energy travelling towards this area that may spin up a surface low, and given the ssts, itīs not out of the question something may develop.

Feel the same way about the GOMEX or extreme western Caribbean.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 26 2017, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 11 2017, 05:45 PM) *
We should watch this area for development about 15 days from now.

I have seen some 500 mb vort energy travelling towards this area that may spin up a surface low, and given the ssts, itīs not out of the question something may develop.

Feel the same way about the GOMEX or extreme western Caribbean.



It seems thereīs a shot to get some kind of weak tropical development around the SE CONUS / Bahamas area, especially closer to Floridaīs east coast.

An invest to possibly a minimum tropical storm, may arise.

The GFS and ECMWF show this possible system, or want-to-be system.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 11:26 AM
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GFS on its 12Z run, focused more on this potential development. It showed a better defined tropical system.

The timing on the GFS is for this possible development to star this weekend.


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Ron in Miami
post Sep 27 2017, 12:31 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 27 2017, 12:26 PM) *
GFS on its 12Z run, focused more on this potential development. It showed a better defined tropical system.

The timing on the GFS is for this possible development to star this weekend.


Looks like the gfs wants to drag the storms down in the Caribbean north over Cuba and try to develop it over the Bahamas. Then the ridge builds in and pushes it west back over FL and into the GOM.

Will be interesting to see if it plays out that way. Not so good for me though, means rain and I still have a compromised roof from Irma dry.gif
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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Sep 27 2017, 12:31 PM) *
Looks like the gfs wants to drag the storms down in the Caribbean north over Cuba and try to develop it over the Bahamas. Then the ridge builds in and pushes it west back over FL and into the GOM.

Will be interesting to see if it plays out that way. Not so good for me though, means rain and I still have a compromised roof from Irma dry.gif



Yep.


Thatīs what I looks like.

And yea, it would rather disruptive for you and folks that are still reeling with Irmaīs damage.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:11 PM
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NHC put a lemon on the map related to this possible development.

An appropriate thread has been created.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:21 PM
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Just to makes things clear and avoid confusion, even though the energy for this possible system comes from the extreme northwestern Caribbeanjust south of western Cuba, the development in earnest starts over the Florida strait and Bahamasī ocean waters after crossing land, in this case Cuba.


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stxprowl
post Sep 28 2017, 10:25 AM
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3's a crowd.
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http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...conus&dpdt=
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Phased Vort
post Oct 2 2017, 10:57 AM
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Invest 98L/99L did not manage to again tropical depression status, so those ended as minimum tropical entities.


Thereīs another possible SE coast development chance by the weekend close to the Florida coast, as supported by the ECMWF.

"Trofing" in and around the eastern CONUS, should allow for whatever develops, to track NE close to the east coast, and may even interact with approaching trof vorticity, which may allow the system to stay close to the northern Mid-Atlantic.

Of course, that is all if the same conditions apply as the weekend arrives.


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