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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
Ron in Miami
post Apr 23 2017, 01:52 PM
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Hurricane season starts in about 5 weeks, and with all the fronts rolling off the east coast I wouldn't rule out seeing something pop off here.
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Phased Vort
post Aug 19 2017, 11:17 PM
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There may be the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing off the southeast coast somewhere over the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastal waters sometime by the next weekend in and around August 26 through 28.

There will be left behind pieces of energy, or a piece of a stalled out cold front as the main cold front leaves and a high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

That combination may lead to something trying to organize.

Letīs see if something at least tries to form.



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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 20 2017, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 20 2017, 12:17 AM) *
There may be the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing off the southeast coast somewhere over the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastal waters sometime by the next weekend in and around August 26 through 28.

There will be left behind pieces of energy, or a piece of a stalled out cold front as the main cold front leaves and a high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

That combination may lead to something trying to organize.

Letīs see if something at least tries to form.

This picture is a tell all - we have Harvey remnant energy, 92L energy, and incoming trough energy - all within relatively small frame. What happens exactly when is the question to be resolved. This has the potential to become big if they hit the same place/time - or to stay all apart and be not much more than typical moderate to heavy rain across the south. And that's just what could go on in the Gulf.

All this could combine in some form or fashion, off the EC.

So many possibilities


Attached Image
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Phased Vort
post Aug 20 2017, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 20 2017, 10:56 AM) *
This picture is a tell all - we have Harvey remnant energy, 92L energy, and incoming trough energy - all within relatively small frame. What happens exactly when is the question to be resolved. This has the potential to become big if they hit the same place/time - or to stay all apart and be not much more than typical moderate to heavy rain across the south. And that's just what could go on in the Gulf.

All this could combine in some form or fashion, off the EC.

So many possibilities


Attached Image


12Z GFS is really showing this southeast development occuring with the mixing of energies from 92L and dying stalled out front over the southeast offshore waters.

Then, if the atlantic high pressure ridge and the building in great lakes high ridge combine and close the escape path to the NE over the Atlantic, this system could be pushed to the west towards the coast.


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SnowMan11
post Aug 20 2017, 11:48 AM
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GFS develops a strong storm but stays well offshore

CMC hits SE Florida and then rides just offshore and then goes OTS


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Anthony
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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 144:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 168:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:52 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 192:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 22 2017, 01:53 PM
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12Z ECMWF hour 216:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 22 2017, 07:04 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 22 2017, 02:53 PM) *
12Z ECMWF hour 216:

Attached Image

Several GEFS members in support of the idea. An interesting Nor'easter out of what was once 92L. (at least a piece of it that is)
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Phased Vort
post Aug 23 2017, 02:58 PM
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12Z ECMWF develops a storm pretty close to the coast of Florida and then continues to stay close to the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, including the outter backs then it heads ENE out to sea.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 11 2017, 05:45 PM
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We should watch this area for development about 15 days from now.

I have seen some 500 mb vort energy travelling towards this area that may spin up a surface low, and given the ssts, itīs not out of the question something may develop.

Feel the same way about the GOMEX or extreme western Caribbean.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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