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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 23 2017, 01:52 PM
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Hurricane season starts in about 5 weeks, and we could see early development here with warm temps in the gulf.
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 3 2017, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 2 2017, 03:34 PM) *
Nothing concrete in the modeling, at this juncture. However, there seems to be a signal from the BSR that will change - perhaps even taking the form of a "jumper" (forms in E PAC and jumps C America, redeveloping in the GOM ala Beatriz, but with "better" environment to allow them to stand on their own. Beatriz rides the front that moves south towards the Gulf - does not become independent/stronger - still brings copious moisture stream through Fl where they need it).

[attachment=326336:P_48hrsfc.gif]

Could also be a bad interpretation on my end though.... sad.gif


NHC seems to be smelling what you're cooking...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area, associated with the remnants of eastern
Pacific Tropical Storm Beatriz, is located over the Bay of
Campeche. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
currently shows signs of organization, little additional
development is expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Undertakerson
post Jun 4 2017, 04:15 AM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 3 2017, 05:13 PM) *
NHC seems to be smelling what you're cooking...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area, associated with the remnants of eastern
Pacific Tropical Storm Beatriz, is located over the Bay of
Campeche. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
currently shows signs of organization, little additional
development is expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Thanks, but I was using Beatriz as an example of a recent storm that "jumped". That I mentioned a system in relation to the BSR meant to indicate that tropical trouble from the GOM in a couple weeks from now.

00z GFS smells that cookin' and comes off with this which, if you trace it back, does indeed, form in the E PAC and jumps just below near Hondoras


Attached Image


Something seems to want to be brewin'

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 4 2017, 04:16 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 4 2017, 04:34 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 4 2017, 05:15 AM) *
Thanks, but I was using Beatriz as an example of a recent storm that "jumped". That I mentioned a system in relation to the BSR meant to indicate that tropical trouble from the GOM in a couple weeks from now.

00z GFS smells that cookin' and comes off with this which, if you trace it back, does indeed, form in the E PAC and jumps just below near Hondoras


Attached Image


Something seems to want to be brewin'


Pattern again seems there to develop something if it can mantain itself. Stalled front across florida and GOM and ridging off to its north and north east. Lets see if it can honestly hold.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 4 2017, 07:27 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 4 2017, 05:34 AM) *
Pattern again seems there to develop something if it can mantain itself. Stalled front across florida and GOM and ridging off to its north and north east. Lets see if it can honestly hold.

Gonna be a while until we gain confidence, but with the BSR signal (assuming I am interpreting correctly) support, we'll have to watch closely.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 4 2017, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 4 2017, 07:27 AM) *
Gonna be a while until we gain confidence, but with the BSR signal (assuming I am interpreting correctly) support, we'll have to watch closely.


Attached Image


Hello folks.

The pattern signals this year including the neutral to weak el niņo, cooler waters off the coast of central e northern Mexico, warm tropical Atlantic and warm waters off the coast of the mid Atlantic coast, look to allow for a somewhat above average season, with a fast start in development, despite those same signals send a conflicting interpretation or message.


GFS , as pointed above, already indicating a stronger possibility of development over the western Carribean and towards the GOM, from an earlier development over the eastern pacific. Besides that, the GFS also shows a possible invest development or depression far out over the eastern Atlantic from a African wave. Both features, in about 2 weeks from now.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 4 2017, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 4 2017, 01:22 PM) *
Hello folks.

The pattern signals this year including the neutral to weak el niņo, cooler waters off the coast of central e northern Mexico, warm tropical Atlantic and warm waters off the coast of the mid Atlantic coast, look to allow for a somewhat above average season, with a fast start in development, despite those same signals send a conflicting interpretation or message.
GFS , as pointed above, already indicating a stronger possibility of development over the western Carribean and towards the GOM, from an earlier development over the eastern pacific. Besides that, the GFS also shows a possible invest development or depression far out over the eastern Atlantic from a African wave. Both features, in about 2 weeks from now.

Must be at least a, somewhat credible, threat - given that Carlos has decided to chime in with his $.02. smile.gif

laugh.gif

Good to see ya' around PV!
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Phased Vort
post Jun 4 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 4 2017, 03:39 PM) *
Must be at least a, somewhat credible, threat - given that Carlos has decided to chime in with his $.02. smile.gif

laugh.gif

Good to see ya' around PV!



Thanks.

It's always nice too see you all.

Mr Undertakerson, if I may, your posts alone give a rather important contribution to tropical threads themselves, and much needed weight to these kinds of discussions. Glad you are always around.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 5 2017, 03:49 AM
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mellow.gif


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Ron in Miami
post Jun 5 2017, 05:36 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 5 2017, 04:49 AM) *
mellow.gif


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Look at that atlatic ridge O_o It was strong last year too.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 02:30 AM
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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 6 2017, 02:33 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 6 2017, 02:49 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 6 2017, 03:30 AM) *

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Attached Image

Has been fairly consistent on the idea of a PRE event across the mid Atlantic and ne. I wouldn't hold guns blazing but for sure looks interesting with how flow may set up. As for tropical activity I still hold my doubts about the idea but can see how one can interpolate it into say a TS. I really wouldn't be all surprised if we end up waiting until almost July to really start to see activity as we start to change up the pattern from troughiness to one that begins to include more ridges across the area.

I must say though I don't do much in the way of tropical forecasting as this can be a fairly troublesome concept for me. Too many minute changes that can throw a monkey wrench in it all I'll stick synoptic overview for $600.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 6 2017, 02:53 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 04:22 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 6 2017, 03:49 AM) *
Has been fairly consistent on the idea of a PRE event across the mid Atlantic and ne. I wouldn't hold guns blazing but for sure looks interesting with how flow may set up. As for tropical activity I still hold my doubts about the idea but can see how one can interpolate it into say a TS. I really wouldn't be all surprised if we end up waiting until almost July to really start to see activity as we start to change up the pattern from troughiness to one that begins to include more ridges across the area.

I must say though I don't do much in the way of tropical forecasting as this can be a fairly troublesome concept for me. Too many minute changes that can throw a monkey wrench in it all I'll stick synoptic overview for $600.

Oddly, here we are discussing this potential in the GOM thread. Tracing the origins of the energy (as has always been the case with this one), it clearly comes out of the southwest Caribbean. The 00z run I just posted doesn't seem to put it in the GOM at all - it crosses far W Cuba and right over the Atlantic Straits, into the region the define the body of the Keys.

But we're still far enough out that no outcome is certain or even probable, so....

Have to think that we end up with this one in the Caribbean thread when all is said and done. And it won't be the last one, by the looks of this...

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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 05:53 AM
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Then again rolleyes.gif

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PlanetMaster
post Jun 6 2017, 07:49 AM
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MJO forecast to become positive over the Gulf and Atlantic over the next couple weeks allowing for development. Decent assessment here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqyBUofX_nI

Just been reading up on the evaluations for the month of June into July and as of now things could get very active tropically. Wait an see what happens, we have been here before.

GFS likes the keys at this point

Attached Image


Something to watch in the short term is a warm core storm developing over Louisiana wanting to run up the coast this weekend with some tropical development possible. May warrant a Nor' Easter thread in general forum.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.06.2017
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.6N 75.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.06.2017 37.2N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.06.2017 41.8N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.06.2017 44.5N 66.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.06.2017 53.7N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.06.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





UK on board as well

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Not seeing anything on the GFS at this point but it does have a huge double barrel High over the Atlantic that would allow path of least resistance of a low up the coast so its a wait a see situation at this point.

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Undertakerson
post Jun 22 2017, 03:13 AM
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My interpretation of the Bering Sea Rule leads me to believe that more tropical trouble comes at the end of the first week of July - around the 9 or 10, we should see a significant storm arise from the Lower GOM. Actually, it could be like Cindy and have, at least some, influence from the E Pac region.
I'm liking that notion more so than the waves coming off the African Continent - at least for that time period.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 23 2017, 06:02 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 22 2017, 04:13 AM) *
My interpretation of the Bering Sea Rule leads me to believe that more tropical trouble comes at the end of the first week of July - around the 9 or 10, we should see a significant storm arise from the Lower GOM. Actually, it could be like Cindy and have, at least some, influence from the E Pac region.
I'm liking that notion more so than the waves coming off the African Continent - at least for that time period.

Hmmm - "we shall see"


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Undertakerson
post Jun 23 2017, 01:30 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 23 2017, 03:19 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 23 2017, 02:30 PM) *

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That Ridge in the Atlantic though. The looks show a possible stall and grab situation if something were to hold fairly, impressed with the regions popping activity already.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 24 2017, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 22 2017, 03:13 AM) *
My interpretation of the Bering Sea Rule leads me to believe that more tropical trouble comes at the end of the first week of July - around the 9 or 10, we should see a significant storm arise from the Lower GOM. Actually, it could be like Cindy and have, at least some, influence from the E Pac region.
I'm liking that notion more so than the waves coming off the African Continent - at least for that time period.


I think I will endorse your interpratation of the Bearing Sea Rule.

In a few days I will let you know if it gets my official support. biggrin.gif


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