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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Jun 24 2017, 01:09 PM
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Mr Under, your interpretation of the BSR depicts an invest or pontential tropical cyclone coming to life over the western Caribbean near central Central America and crossing the Yucatan, and then maturing into a tropical cyclone over the GOM, correct ?

I like that interpretation if that's how you are bring it together in your mind. Especially given the nearby tropical activity over the eastern Pacific just around that time or some days earlier.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2017, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 24 2017, 01:54 PM) *
I think I will endorse your interpratation of the Bearing Sea Rule.

In a few days I will let you know if it gets my official support. biggrin.gif

Sniff, sniff smile.gif

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We shall see, we shall see....
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Undertakerson
post Jul 30 2017, 09:01 AM
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this broad
disturbance is possible over the next several days while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a dissipating
frontal boundary over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or so, and then move eastward across the Florida peninsula
into the western Atlantic by midweek. Any development should be
slow to occur due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
proximity to land. However, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days. Please see additional
information from your local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
.

Forecaster Stewart


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Phased Vort
post Aug 2 2017, 02:14 PM
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Latest ECMWF is implying that tropical development may start to occur over the extreme western Caribbean sea Waters and mature over the Southern GOMEX after the energy crosses over the Yucatan penn.



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Undertakerson
post Aug 2 2017, 03:01 PM
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FB post from a couple days ago. smile.gif

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 05:06 AM
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Is there something forming in the W GOM - in the D6-7time period?

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 05:33 AM
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Note the date!


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MaineJay
post Aug 29 2017, 05:51 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 06:33 AM) *
Note the date!


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There is a little L the on the ECMWF as well...
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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 11:49 AM
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Yep - this one may catch some folks napping. Even if not a full blow TC, it would not bode well. Good news is that it (as modeled now) appears to be a quick hitter.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 02:47 PM
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Euro - showing both the GOM system and the looming 93L


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stretchct
post Aug 29 2017, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 03:47 PM) *
Euro - showing both the GOM system and the looming 93L


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Just had to go look for myself that it wasn't Harvey still. Its not. Euro only puts down an inch or so in SE TX. LA gets up to 6" though south of Lake Charles and Lafayette.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 29 2017, 04:39 PM) *
Just had to go look for myself that it wasn't Harvey still. Its not. Euro only puts down an inch or so in SE TX. LA gets up to 6" though south of Lake Charles and Lafayette.

Yeah - I can understand why you looked. But really? You don't trust us? (lol - j/k, I would have looked too)

I guess the main point would be yet another very wet event lining up, in an area that would still be struggling to dry out.

Then...93L grabs center stage (IMHO)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 29 2017, 04:07 PM
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You can already see the atmosphere taking shape for early/mid next week as the heights at 300mb continue to bend SW with the ULL.


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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 07:10 PM
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12Z ECMWF:

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DrewNola
post Aug 29 2017, 08:25 PM
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how realistic is this?
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jdrenken
post Aug 29 2017, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 2 2017, 03:01 PM) *
FB post from a couple days ago. smile.gif

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jdrenken
post Aug 29 2017, 10:08 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Aug 29 2017, 08:25 PM) *
how realistic is this?


It's within the realm of possibilities!


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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 11:29 PM
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00z GFS sends a lot of rain towards the areas devastated by Harvey´s historic floods.

On hour 180, it wants to develop a tropical cyclone, but on this run the low center stay on land or just hugging the coast as it moves NE out of Mexico


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Undertakerson
post Aug 30 2017, 02:50 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 29 2017, 10:09 PM) *
On a roll!

ohmy.gif wink.gif
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Undertakerson
post Aug 30 2017, 05:57 AM
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6z GFS places a bunch of rain in SE TX from the wave - up to 2' more of much UN-needed precip.

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