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> POST Tropical Storm Bret, 6/20 5PM EST 40mph - 1008mb -Movement: WNW@ 22mph
Ron in Miami
post Jun 16 2017, 12:43 PM
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Posting from phone so I'll add graphics when I get home in a few.

Invest 92L
As of 18:00 UTC Jun 16, 2017:

Location: 5.0N 34.4W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during
the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 20 2017, 04:11 PM
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stretchct
post Jun 16 2017, 02:42 PM
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Its the one over the Atlantic.


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First flakes
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 16 2017, 02:51 PM
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Updated with some graphics, will post some more later with shear maps etc..
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 16 2017, 03:40 PM
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Both systems of interest look good this afternoon, both have a good overall outflow flow aloft, centralized convective pattern evident and moving into good conditions.
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 16 2017, 04:16 PM
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Little post on 92L:

Outflow looks good over the invest, and it's in a pocket of low shear at the moment (5-10kt range) but only out to around 55 degrees after that it goes down hill from there.


Convergence (Blue) and Divergence (Yellow) are centered over the system which will allow better organization of the system.


The vorticity is also located close to the LLC of the invest, also good for organization of the system.



Lastly the outlook, This is the current shear map out in front of 92L, and it's not good:



And this is the shear tendency (basically a forecast for what the shear will be), and it just gets worse from there. Shear is on the INCREASE from 50 through 80w into the Caribbean.



All that being said, my personal opinion on this system is it will probably develop into a TS in the short term, but once it gets close to the islands the shear should tear it apart (pretty much with the GFS and EURO have been saying lately, it's gonna die in the Caribbean Graveyard).

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 16 2017, 04:19 PM
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Phased Vort
post Jun 17 2017, 09:25 AM
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Gentlemen, so the season with its fun and games starts.

We should get 2 named systems right off the bat.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2017, 03:15 AM
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kind of looking meh if it was going to do something I feel it would have started to by now if the low level swirl can remain intact and move through the caribbean as a wave may make for something down the road toward the end of the month in GOM region but thats quite far at this point. The ridging up north will keep it from moving too far north, the only other concern is that is that it ends up over SA region and then well thats that.


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Ron in Miami
post Jun 18 2017, 03:44 PM
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Guess the NHC sees something going on with 92L, might be upgraded at 5.
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 18 2017, 03:57 PM
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 182055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.5 North, longitude 50.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the
Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity on Monday
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance
has become better organized since yesterday, and some additional
development is possible during the next couple of days before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
over the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 18 2017, 04:03 PM
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Forecast path
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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 05:22 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 18 2017, 04:57 PM) *
000
WTNT32 KNHC 182055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.5 North, longitude 50.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the
Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity on Monday
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance
has become better organized since yesterday, and some additional
development is possible during the next couple of days before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
over the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

TS Advisory for Barbados does not bode well for a system. Land interaction should keep it at bay (why it's only a D once it moves past N South America)
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 18 2017, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 18 2017, 06:22 PM) *
TS Advisory for Barbados does not bode well for a system. Land interaction should keep it at bay (why it's only a D once it moves past N South America)


Tight little systems like this can wind up pretty quick, so lets see what Bret can do before conditions deteriorate for him.

Has anyone here heard for the "Dr Bill Gray rule"? Saw it mentioned in a few places but google search came up empty.
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PhillySnowLover
post Jun 18 2017, 06:35 PM
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The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories
on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours.
Under previous policy this was not
possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in
advisory products and are numbered from the same list as
depressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and
the appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective
governments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue
until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas
sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical
cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.
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stretchct
post Jun 19 2017, 02:25 PM
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Recon finding the winds. No upgrade yet. This is just one shot of one of the multiple pages showing TD/TS force winds.

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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 19 2017, 04:06 PM
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Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

An Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the
disturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined
closed circulation. The location of the center was substantially
farther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward
the west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt. Because the system
has developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical
storm and has been named Bret.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post Jun 19 2017, 06:01 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 19 2017, 04:06 PM) *
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

An Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the
disturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined
closed circulation. The location of the center was substantially
farther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward
the west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt. Because the system
has developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical
storm and has been named Bret.


This one is racing west. It's cool or rather interesting, to see a tropical cyclone this close to South America.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 06:57 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 19 2017, 07:01 PM) *
This one is racing west. It's cool or rather interesting, to see a tropical cyclone this close to South America.

A coastal scraper, South American style (LOL)


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Phased Vort
post Jun 19 2017, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 19 2017, 06:57 PM) *
A coastal scraper, South American style (LOL)


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Very much so.

This season is starting in a pretty exciting way from a hobby and meteorologistic point of view.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Ron in Miami
post Jun 20 2017, 04:13 PM
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Well folks we've had a death in the family, Bret is no longer with us. He defied the odds, set records, and spat in the face of climatology and windshear. Bret, we salute you...

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risingriver
post Jun 20 2017, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 20 2017, 05:13 PM) *
Well folks we've had a death in the family, Bret is no longer with us. He defied the odds, set records, and spat in the face of climatology and windshear. Bret, we salute you...


Brett, we hardly knew you. laugh.gif
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