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> Tropical Storm Cindy, 6/21 5PM EST 50mph - 994mb - Movement: NW 9mph
Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 12:12 PM
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AL, 93, 2017061712, 01, CARQ, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1008, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 315, 4, INVEST, S,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 21 2017, 03:43 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 12:14 PM
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AL, 93, 2017061618, , BEST, 0, 165N, 850W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061700, , BEST, 0, 168N, 853W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061706, , BEST, 0, 172N, 857W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061712, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, al732017 to al932017,
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 12:22 PM
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DrewNola
post Jun 17 2017, 12:46 PM
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Wow....What intensity?
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 01:16 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 17 2017, 01:46 PM) *
Wow....What intensity?


Right now, a duck fart. But it could become a strong TS next week. Some models have it close to Hurricane in the mid 980's coming into the FL panhandle. Now that there's an invest for the models to latch onto the runs will get better. And Recon is going out to take a looksie, so I wouldn't get too worried as of yet.

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Weather4LA
post Jun 17 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 17 2017, 12:16 PM) *
Right now, a duck fart. But it could become a strong TS next week. Some models have it close to Hurricane in the mid 980's coming into the FL panhandle. Now that there's an invest for the models to latch onto the runs will get better. And Recon is going out to take a looksie, so I wouldn't get too worried as of yet.


Needless to say, forum guys like DrewNola and myself down in Louisiana will be keeping a close eye on this one. To say nothing of basically all the GC (gulf coast) Accuwx users. Until it gets sniffed out by the Hurricane Hunters I don't think anyone can say for sure where and how strong this thing will be going forward.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 17 2017, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jun 17 2017, 02:21 PM) *
Needless to say, forum guys like DrewNola and myself down in Louisiana will be keeping a close eye on this one. To say nothing of basically all the GC (gulf coast) Accuwx users. Until it gets sniffed out by the Hurricane Hunters I don't think anyone can say for sure where and how strong this thing will be going forward.


Where ever this thing ends up in the gulf, it will be your typical June tropical system (messy and wet).
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PhillySnowLover
post Jun 17 2017, 02:45 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 17 2017, 01:12 PM) *
AL, 93, 2017061712, 01, CARQ, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1008, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 315, 4, INVEST, S,

where did you find that text

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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 02:51 PM
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12 UKIE says Galveston
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12z Euro - Corpus Christi

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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 02:54 PM
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12zNAV is southwest of its 00z run and takes it kind of in between UK and Euro.
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risingriver
post Jun 17 2017, 08:05 PM
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37 tropical systems in June in the GOM last 60 years. 6 became hurricanes. 19 were TS strength, 12 only made depression. All made a landfall according to TWC. Often these guys are Super Soakers. I believe Allison was a June Gulf TS. No sign of that yet, but June systems don't have to be hurricanes to have a significant impact where they strike.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 08:48 PM
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For s&g, 18z NAM, 994 on a path towards Galveston

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Undertakerson
post Jun 17 2017, 08:54 PM
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Where are the SST's the warmest?

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2017, 02:37 AM
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It almost seems like the Euro wants to keep this system embedded with the ULL and really knock down the ridge out west which helps the ULL retrograde and bring the system along with it while the GFS remains fairly strong with the ridging out west and puts the system on the outer fringes of the ULL and develops it a little bit as it heads through the GOM. Im kind of going with the GFS for now on this since it seems to have the better idea with holding the system in the gulf and scooting it more northerly instead of north then west as the euro depicts. Especially with the stalled front idea looming across much of the SE it just seems to make sense to me but curious to see if the euro switches its mind or if the GFS back tracks.

The big question then is how strong will this get. If it can organize, which is what the models seem to say will happen to some degree, at least a mid grade TS is certainly possible before what would be making landfall and moving off in flow.

GFS is interesting in its depiction of what all happens because it says lets fling this storm up and have energy from the ULL round the bottom of the ridge over Mexico and come out in the pacific and create an area of low pressure that comes into Cali by the weekend to help break the ridging down into a piece that then begins to setup in the eastern US by the end of june. Going to have to watch this as many have stated you dont really need a strong system to cause damage excessive rainfall can do that just fine and with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere right now across the south and up the east it wont be hard to see flooding situations.

If I had to take a guess at trajectory my guess would be somewhere between Tallahassee and new orleans. We will know better by tomorrow night where it develops and then by monday night where track may lead this system, either north or north then west.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 18 2017, 02:55 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 03:56 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 18 2017, 03:37 AM) *
It almost seems like the Euro wants to keep this system embedded with the ULL and really knock down the ridge out west which helps the ULL retrograde and bring the system along with it while the GFS remains fairly strong with the ridging out west and puts the system on the outer fringes of the ULL and develops it a little bit as it heads through the GOM. Im kind of going with the GFS for now on this since it seems to have the better idea with holding the system in the gulf and scooting it more northerly instead of north then west as the euro depicts. Especially with the stalled front idea looming across much of the SE it just seems to make sense to me but curious to see if the euro switches its mind or if the GFS back tracks.

The big question then is how strong will this get. If it can organize, which is what the models seem to say will happen to some degree, at least a mid grade TS is certainly possible before what would be making landfall and moving off in flow.

GFS is interesting in its depiction of what all happens because it says lets fling this storm up and have energy from the ULL round the bottom of the ridge over Mexico and come out in the pacific and create an area of low pressure that comes into Cali by the weekend to help break the ridging down into a piece that then begins to setup in the eastern US by the end of june. Going to have to watch this as many have stated you dont really need a strong system to cause damage excessive rainfall can do that just fine and with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere right now across the south and up the east it wont be hard to see flooding situations.

If I had to take a guess at trajectory my guess would be somewhere between Tallahassee and new orleans. We will know better by tomorrow night where it develops and then by monday night where track may lead this system, either north or north then west.

GFS stands alone with its idea that the system can affect Florida.

Euro is TX as is now the UKIE. Even the CMC is well west and make LA its target and the mostly progressive NAV is even west of the CMC but east of the UKIE.

GFS at 00z takes this through the FL pan handle.

I mean - even the NAM takes this thing into TX (as a moderate TS)

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2017, 04:19 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 18 2017, 04:56 AM) *
GFS stands alone with its idea that the system can affect Florida.

Euro is TX as is now the UKIE. Even the CMC is well west and make LA its target and the mostly progressive NAV is even west of the CMC but east of the UKIE.

GFS at 00z takes this through the FL pan handle.

I mean - even the NAM takes this thing into TX (as a moderate TS)


For some reason what gets me is the positioning of the trough it still shows positive tilt to the troughing so to swing that far west this thing has to stay down to the south and tuck in which is what the Euro does it has the system cross the yucatan, northern side, and follow almost virtually underneath the ULL where the GFS has the system on the outer fringes of the ULL and takes it from NE of the yucatan then almost due north from there.

The ULL looks to retrograde regardless of model so one can see that maybe a slightly further west solution is possible, say LA region, but to go north and then cut west like that into TX at that latitude it almost seems like the model is holding the ridging in the east a little too long and pushing the system westward. Its not like we have this huge blocking up north to keep it in a westward trajectory there is some connection to mid latitude troughing that may influence it enough to pull it up.

Honestly curious to see what happens with it and where exactly the low tries to form.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 04:52 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 18 2017, 05:19 AM) *
For some reason what gets me is the positioning of the trough it still shows positive tilt to the troughing so to swing that far west this thing has to stay down to the south and tuck in which is what the Euro does it has the system cross the yucatan, northern side, and follow almost virtually underneath the ULL where the GFS has the system on the outer fringes of the ULL and takes it from NE of the yucatan then almost due north from there.

The ULL looks to retrograde regardless of model so one can see that maybe a slightly further west solution is possible, say LA region, but to go north and then cut west like that into TX at that latitude it almost seems like the model is holding the ridging in the east a little too long and pushing the system westward. Its not like we have this huge blocking up north to keep it in a westward trajectory there is some connection to mid latitude troughing that may influence it enough to pull it up.

Honestly curious to see what happens with it and where exactly the low tries to form.

Pretty much all about the trough, as has been the case since the beginning IMHO. Should the trough get involved, then the energy at the base of the trough gets involved, makes a stronger system and allows it to recurve slightly - and that would allow of W Florida track. But the bulk of the models show the trough connection to be insignificant or an all out miss. That leads to a weaker system which, as we know, allow the western tracks as a most likely outcome.

Euro has been locked with its S TX look for the past several runs - UKIE only minor deviance from that. GFS has waggled a bit and appear that its Op run is an outlier to its own ensembles - many of which have a LA look. Even the HWRF/GFDL looking at LA or MS for a track.

The 6z GFS is coming in now and still looking like W Fl panhandle - the GFS-P even has this down to 984 (or so) mb which would equal moderate TS force ( I think).

Would be quite the coup for GFS to prevail here.
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MaineJay
post Jun 18 2017, 06:10 AM
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18.0z ECMWF ensembles

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 07:03 AM
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60/90 on the last update - no shocker there.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 07:09 AM
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