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> Tropical Storm Cindy, 6/21 5PM EST 50mph - 994mb - Movement: NW 9mph
Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 07:15 AM
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Oh - BTW, take note

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stretchct
post Jun 18 2017, 10:45 AM
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Wouldn't want to be under this


Is that circulation I see last few frames? or am I looking too hard



Happy Fathers Day!


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DrewNola
post Jun 18 2017, 11:00 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 18 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Wouldn't want to be under this


Is that circulation I see last few frames? or am I looking too hard

Happy Fathers Day!



I see it, I think we will have Bret later today
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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 11:23 AM
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Drew - 12z GFS has its sight set on you.


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Well west of its past two runs (and all those before)
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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 11:31 AM
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CMC totally caves to the Euro/UKIE - shocker, I know rolleyes.gif

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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 11:45 AM
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12z UKIE = Galveston, TX
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DrewNola
post Jun 18 2017, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 18 2017, 11:23 AM) *
Drew - 12z GFS has its sight set on you.


Attached Image


Well west of its past two runs (and all those before)



Im watching, not sure what the key players will be, But it already looks like it' got rotation south of Jamaica
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2017, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 18 2017, 05:52 AM) *
Pretty much all about the trough, as has been the case since the beginning IMHO. Should the trough get involved, then the energy at the base of the trough gets involved, makes a stronger system and allows it to recurve slightly - and that would allow of W Florida track. But the bulk of the models show the trough connection to be insignificant or an all out miss. That leads to a weaker system which, as we know, allow the western tracks as a most likely outcome.

Euro has been locked with its S TX look for the past several runs - UKIE only minor deviance from that. GFS has waggled a bit and appear that its Op run is an outlier to its own ensembles - many of which have a LA look. Even the HWRF/GFDL looking at LA or MS for a track.

The 6z GFS is coming in now and still looking like W Fl panhandle - the GFS-P even has this down to 984 (or so) mb which would equal moderate TS force ( I think).

Would be quite the coup for GFS to prevail here.


Wait I get what you are saying but I feel you may have it backwards to the idea. If there is more ull interaction the system would be brought back even further west say Texas as the euro and other models show. While if there is less interaction with the ULL it follows flow which would make for the LA western FL region to get hit. Both really don't seem to pay too much for strengthening as moderate ts seems to be the situation at this point but one thing I will note is the position of the low right now is rather gfs like. The hurricane models seem to be a nice middle ground with LA look.

The only reason I say more ull interactions means further west, I'm sure we all remember how Sandy was with that crazy left hook that's the same idea with this where the hook grabs it and then moves it north after fully grabbed which seems like Galveston to be the place if that happened. I believe if the energy were to tuck like that the vorticity would tighten and maybe lead to a slightly stronger storm say then an s/w like idea of the gfs where the energy skirts around the edge. Also while if we get more interaction with the ULL we maybe lose some tropical characteristics as we saw with Sandy, I'm sure there is still debate as to whether it was tropical or not and whether it was a hurricane or strong ts, but regardless it did it's damage and brought it's rains. Hope the folks down there are keeping an eye on it and at least preparing. If it doesn't hit there are still chances behind this one.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 18 2017, 12:55 PM


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PhillySnowLover
post Jun 18 2017, 12:58 PM
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what happened to NHC issuing advisories on potential tropical cyclones isn't that supposed to be a thing this season. Don't see it happening yet.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2017, 01:17 PM
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Wish I had twitter for situations like this but Levi Cowan via tropical tidbits explains what may happen real quick. The presence of shear has always been it's downfall and should keep it from getting no more than say 50mph at its peak, that's if it can muster to that level.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 18 2017, 01:27 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 18 2017, 01:52 PM) *
Wait I get what you are saying but I feel you may have it backwards to the idea. If there is more ull interaction the system would be brought back even further west say Texas as the euro and other models show. While if there is less interaction with the ULL it follows flow which would make for the LA western FL region to get hit. Both really don't seem to pay too much for strengthening as moderate ts seems to be the situation at this point but one thing I will note is the position of the low right now is rather gfs like. The hurricane models seem to be a nice middle ground with LA look.

The only reason I say more ull interactions means further west, I'm sure we all remember how Sandy was with that crazy left hook that's the same idea with this where the hook grabs it and then moves it north after fully grabbed which seems like Galveston to be the place if that happened. I believe if the energy were to tuck like that the vorticity would tighten and maybe lead to a slightly stronger storm say then an s/w like idea of the gfs where the energy skirts around the edge. Also while if we get more interaction with the ULL we maybe lose some tropical characteristics as we saw with Sandy, I'm sure there is still debate as to whether it was tropical or not and whether it was a hurricane or strong ts, but regardless it did it's damage and brought it's rains. Hope the folks down there are keeping an eye on it and at least preparing. If it doesn't hit there are still chances behind this one.

Not sure. What I was trying to say is the only way this gets pulled north as much as the GFS suggested, it would have to do so on the basis of a "pull" from the continental trough - without such an influence, the system cannot hope to be strong at all. As we know, weak systems tend to the west while strong systems can curve or push north.

So, I was trying to say why the trough is a player. I think the Euro (now shunting into N Mexico on its 12z run) ignores the trough (sees it as washing out, as it does appear to be) so that model (and UKIE) leave the system all on its own. As Levi commented, left to its own ability to do anything, it gets ripped. That is why I think the GFS was East for so long - its notorious bias of chasing convection comes into play and leads it astray. Now it starts to lose that idea (as it did many times this past winter) thus, it is far more west and weaker.
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 18 2017, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 18 2017, 12:00 PM) *
I see it, I think we will have Bret later today


That's the MCL you see there, which I have to admit is pretty darn strong. The LLC is right on the Mexico/Belize border. See the up close gif I made of the LLC

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jun 18 2017, 01:44 PM
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Weather4LA
post Jun 18 2017, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 18 2017, 10:23 AM) *
Drew - 12z GFS has its sight set on you.


Attached Image


Well west of its past two runs (and all those before)


I'm watching this closely from Baton Rouge, La as well. This early it's a tough call to say which area of the Gulf Coast will get the soaker (and/or the squall?) from this one.


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risingriver
post Jun 18 2017, 07:17 PM
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QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Jun 18 2017, 01:58 PM) *
what happened to NHC issuing advisories on potential tropical cyclones isn't that supposed to be a thing this season. Don't see it happening yet.

they are. They have already done so with the other invest in the middle of the Atlantic but they seem to be holding off on this one for some reason- probably because it doesn't look like tropical storm-force winds are going to affect the Yucatan.
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Weather4LA
post Jun 18 2017, 08:26 PM
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18Z GFS looks like the storm crawls into Louisiana, taking its time. Not good if this verifies.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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DrewNola
post Jun 18 2017, 10:23 PM
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any graphics?
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Weather4LA
post Jun 18 2017, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 18 2017, 10:23 PM) *
any graphics?

Here is a frame from hour 72 of the 00z gfs run:

Attached Image


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 03:19 AM
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Overnight models

GFS holds serve with an E LA or W MS type track, Euro is still in S Texas or N Mexico, UKIE still just east of Houston, NAM just east of UKIE, CMC nearly identical to NAM, NAVGEM is not too far from the UKIE/NAM track.

UKIE has been very steady with that track of a Northern Texas type hit - only once or twice did it waggle a bit more south than that. Euro has also been pretty stubborn though, with its S Texas or N Mexico track. GFS has finally abandoned its notion of a Fl panhandle strike

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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 03:55 AM
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stretchct
post Jun 19 2017, 07:58 AM
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Still looking for center of circulation. Seems to be over Yucatan looking at wind obs.
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Buoy has winds >30mph

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This mornings sat is a mess.



This post has been edited by stretchct: Jun 19 2017, 08:00 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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