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> Tropical Storm Cindy, 6/21 5PM EST 50mph - 994mb - Movement: NW 9mph
stretchct
post Jun 19 2017, 08:04 AM
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Wind profile at the buoy
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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risingriver
post Jun 19 2017, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 18 2017, 11:45 AM) *
Wouldn't want to be under this


Is that circulation I see last few frames? or am I looking too hard

Happy Fathers Day!

Last few frames show a clear swirl north of the Yucatan, but that might be mid-level. It actually looks like what Levi talked about in the tropical tidbits update yesterday. Low pressure center forming on the northern end of the trough as it tilts Northwest.

I wouldn't focus too much on the center on this one as it looks like most of the worst of the weather is going to be displaced to the east of the track so the center could come in over Louisiana but it would be Alabama and Mississippi in the panhandle of Florida to get the worst of the weather.
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DrewNola
post Jun 19 2017, 12:11 PM
Post #43




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Member No.: 25,994





From MSY:

.Potential heavy rain and flooding threat unfolding...
Several weather factors are becoming established that could lead
to a period of torrential rainfall that would lead to a flood
potential on several rivers and streams throughout this work week.
First, a broad area of low pressure situated near the Yucatan
Peninsula is currently being closely monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development in the next few days. Second, a cold
frontal zone is draped from the eastern United States into the
gulf coastal states and is in the process of becoming stationary
over the forecast area. Third, a very large region of deep
tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western
Caribbean Sea will be advancing northward during the next 24 to 48
hours, reaching the central Gulf States area by later tonight
into Tuesday.
These three ingredients combined favor heavy rainfall potential
that could see storm total accumulations easily range from 3 to 6
inches over a 2 to 3 day period across a large portion of
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. There is also a
potential for much higher accumulations in the ***10 to 16 inch range****
if the system in the Gulf does move closer to the central gulf
coast region during the week.
At this time, it should be strongly stated that there is a large
degree of uncertainty on actual rainfall accumulations at any
particular location. There is a fair degree of confidence that
this weather pattern is conducive to heavy rainfall. The heaviest
amounts could easily remain over the near coastal waters, but
could also occur over land areas close to the coast. There is also
moderate confidence in the timing of heaviest rainfall likely to
take place over a 2 to 3 day stretch beginning late Monday night
and continuing through Thursday night. The Weather Prediction
Center rainfall forecasting branch is indicating a MARGINAL risk
of excessive rainfall generally over a large portion of Southeast
Louisiana to include the Baton Rouge metro area, the areas
generally north and west of the tidal lakes. There is a SLIGHT
risk of excessive rainfall over coastal Mississippi and the
extreme eastern portions of southeast Louisiana to include the
greater New Orleans metro area.
In the meantime, stay very alert to the unfolding weather
situation during the week. Some precautionary measures can be done
today and early Tuesday, such as ensuring ditches and catchment
basins are clear of debris and free flowing. Also, be sure you
have a plan in place to act upon if and when flood warnings are
issued for your location during the week, particularly if you live
near a river or stream.
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DrewNola
post Jun 19 2017, 01:30 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 19 2017, 12:11 PM) *
From MSY:

.Potential heavy rain and flooding threat unfolding...
Several weather factors are becoming established that could lead
to a period of torrential rainfall that would lead to a flood
potential on several rivers and streams throughout this work week.
First, a broad area of low pressure situated near the Yucatan
Peninsula is currently being closely monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development in the next few days. Second, a cold
frontal zone is draped from the eastern United States into the
gulf coastal states and is in the process of becoming stationary
over the forecast area. Third, a very large region of deep
tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western
Caribbean Sea will be advancing northward during the next 24 to 48
hours, reaching the central Gulf States area by later tonight
into Tuesday.
These three ingredients combined favor heavy rainfall potential
that could see storm total accumulations easily range from 3 to 6
inches over a 2 to 3 day period across a large portion of
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. There is also a
potential for much higher accumulations in the ***10 to 16 inch range****
if the system in the Gulf does move closer to the central gulf
coast region during the week.
At this time, it should be strongly stated that there is a large
degree of uncertainty on actual rainfall accumulations at any
particular location. There is a fair degree of confidence that
this weather pattern is conducive to heavy rainfall. The heaviest
amounts could easily remain over the near coastal waters, but
could also occur over land areas close to the coast. There is also
moderate confidence in the timing of heaviest rainfall likely to
take place over a 2 to 3 day stretch beginning late Monday night
and continuing through Thursday night. The Weather Prediction
Center rainfall forecasting branch is indicating a MARGINAL risk
of excessive rainfall generally over a large portion of Southeast
Louisiana to include the Baton Rouge metro area, the areas
generally north and west of the tidal lakes. There is a SLIGHT
risk of excessive rainfall over coastal Mississippi and the
extreme eastern portions of southeast Louisiana to include the
greater New Orleans metro area.
In the meantime, stay very alert to the unfolding weather
situation during the week. Some precautionary measures can be done
today and early Tuesday, such as ensuring ditches and catchment
basins are clear of debris and free flowing. Also, be sure you
have a plan in place to act upon if and when flood warnings are
issued for your location during the week, particularly if you live
near a river or stream.

A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a
well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive for some additional development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of
development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central
Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could
be needed for portions of this area later today.
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Weather4LA
post Jun 19 2017, 02:31 PM
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By the looks of this LIX should have a flood watch and/or a TS watch issued by this evening or sometime tonight, at the latest.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Weather4LA
post Jun 19 2017, 02:37 PM
Post #46




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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 19 2017, 12:11 PM) *
From MSY:

.Potential heavy rain and flooding threat unfolding...
Several weather factors are becoming established that could lead
to a period of torrential rainfall that would lead to a flood
potential on several rivers and streams throughout this work week.
First, a broad area of low pressure situated near the Yucatan
Peninsula is currently being closely monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development in the next few days. Second, a cold
frontal zone is draped from the eastern United States into the
gulf coastal states and is in the process of becoming stationary
over the forecast area. Third, a very large region of deep
tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western
Caribbean Sea will be advancing northward during the next 24 to 48
hours, reaching the central Gulf States area by later tonight
into Tuesday.
These three ingredients combined favor heavy rainfall potential
that could see storm total accumulations easily range from 3 to 6
inches over a 2 to 3 day period across a large portion of
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. There is also a
potential for much higher accumulations in the ***10 to 16 inch range****
if the system in the Gulf does move closer to the central gulf
coast region during the week.
At this time, it should be strongly stated that there is a large
degree of uncertainty on actual rainfall accumulations at any
particular location. There is a fair degree of confidence that
this weather pattern is conducive to heavy rainfall. The heaviest
amounts could easily remain over the near coastal waters, but
could also occur over land areas close to the coast. There is also
moderate confidence in the timing of heaviest rainfall likely to
take place over a 2 to 3 day stretch beginning late Monday night
and continuing through Thursday night. The Weather Prediction
Center rainfall forecasting branch is indicating a MARGINAL risk
of excessive rainfall generally over a large portion of Southeast
Louisiana to include the Baton Rouge metro area, the areas
generally north and west of the tidal lakes. There is a SLIGHT
risk of excessive rainfall over coastal Mississippi and the
extreme eastern portions of southeast Louisiana to include the
greater New Orleans metro area.
In the meantime, stay very alert to the unfolding weather
situation during the week. Some precautionary measures can be done
today and early Tuesday, such as ensuring ditches and catchment
basins are clear of debris and free flowing. Also, be sure you
have a plan in place to act upon if and when flood warnings are
issued for your location during the week, particularly if you live
near a river or stream.

This is the hydrological outlook issued by the New Orleans NWS office (LIX). I'm not really sure what MSY is an acronym for. Having been through the slugger of a flood from August 2016 in the Baton Rouge area this is rather nicely worded. Still, it wouldn't surprise me to see additional warnings and advisories for northern Gulf Coast by this evening.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 02:54 PM
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Euro now looks very close to UKMET track - watch out you guys and gals in the Bayou State.

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DrewNola
post Jun 19 2017, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 19 2017, 02:54 PM) *
Euro now looks very close to UKMET track - watch out you guys and gals in the Bayou State.


Any graphics? Thanks
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Jun 19 2017, 04:11 PM) *
Any graphics? Thanks

Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 19 2017, 03:30 PM
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nolanola
post Jun 19 2017, 03:42 PM
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I think shortly we will have at least a TS watch and possibly warning from Galveston to New Orleans.
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nolanola
post Jun 19 2017, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(nolanola @ Jun 19 2017, 03:42 PM) *
I think shortly we will have at least a TS watch and possibly warning from Galveston to New Orleans.


Weather channel just confirmed that advisories are coming shortly according to the NHC.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 03:53 PM
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The moisture being transport - WOW, just wow!

Attached Image
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Weather4LA
post Jun 19 2017, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE
Tropical Storm Warning

THREE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017
447 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

LAZ052>056-059-065>070-200500-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.170619T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
347 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2017

$$


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 03:57 PM
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Time to rename the thread as PTC3 (or Cindy, if you will)

QUOTE
000
WTNT23 KNHC 192046
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 88.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 90.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.9N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 35.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 88.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Weather4LA
post Jun 19 2017, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.7 North, longitude 88.7 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northwest
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches
the coast.

Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system during the next day or two,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday
evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$


It's now official.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Undertakerson
post Jun 19 2017, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday
evening.
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Weather4LA
post Jun 19 2017, 04:11 PM
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I'm hoping it won't be another August 2016 episode around here. And that wasn't even a named storm. I'll need to check to make sure everything's good to go for this storm then. I'm right in the bullseye of heavy rains up here in Baton Rouge.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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DrewNola
post Jun 19 2017, 04:22 PM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jun 19 2017, 04:11 PM) *
I'm hoping it won't be another August 2016 episode around here. And that wasn't even a named storm. I'll need to check to make sure everything's good to go for this storm then. I'm right in the bullseye of heavy rains up here in Baton Rouge.


Im on the other side on the West Bank of NOLA, be safe!
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stretchct
post Jun 19 2017, 05:30 PM
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Most recent GFS rainfall forecast via pivotal


And NAM to 84


And while the Euro takes it further west, it focuses rainfall on the delta and along the immediate coast into FL.

Is NOLA ready for 5-10 inches of rain?


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 19 2017, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 19 2017, 04:57 PM) *
Time to rename the thread as PTC3 (or Cindy, if you will)


Just got home, done and done for Bret as well. The 3rd storm by June 19th, gonna be a wild ride in 2017!!
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