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> POST Tropical Depression 4, 7/7 5PM EST 25mph - 1012mb -Movement: WNW@ 21mph
Ron in Miami
post Jul 2 2017, 08:42 PM
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At 0000 UTC, 03 July 2017, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 10.0N and 32.5W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 3 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 7 2017, 04:10 PM
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MaineJay
post Jul 2 2017, 09:16 PM
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Tropical cyclone genesis probabilities, based on CMC, GFS, and ECMWF.

Attached Image


PWATs
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Crappy 3 hour floater on it
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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 2 2017, 09:18 PM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Jul 2 2017, 09:27 PM
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Better loop available here

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=12

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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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risingriver
post Jul 2 2017, 11:57 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 2 2017, 10:27 PM) *

Great stuff. Sum ting feeshey going on out derr. Its gonna be an interesting 2 weeks.
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 3 2017, 12:35 AM
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Way to early at this point but I'm gonna hug the last gfs and say fish storm tongue.gif

Also, there is a lot more ocean than land so I'm taking probabilities. I'm a novice, the euro doesn't really show a storm beyond a few days.... but I think I saw that it is an ensemble so it averages all the areas of low/high pressure areas of all its members and track differences would explain why?


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 3 2017, 04:18 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure system has remained nearly stationary for the
past several hours about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression after
midweek. The disturbance is expected to drift westward for the next
day or two, followed a motion toward the west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Undertakerson
post Jul 3 2017, 05:34 AM
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Couple of GEFS members make this interesting to the US mainland.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 3 2017, 06:06 AM
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Front after front coming into eastern u.s. timing will have to be perfect for this to hit any land imo


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MaineJay
post Jul 3 2017, 06:53 AM
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3.0z ECMWF ensembles


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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Jul 3 2017, 08:17 AM
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Imagine if hurricane Don flattened Mar-a-lago. laugh.gif


UKie track


Attached Image



Sat loop, fizzled for now. The more southerly it stays, the better chance it might have.

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 3 2017, 08:19 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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NorEaster07
post Jul 3 2017, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 3 2017, 07:53 AM) *
3.0z ECMWF ensembles


Attached Image


Is it me or is that too far south. Thats 1 way it would have better chance to come closer or hit land... to have a further south latitude track. Then timing wont have to be as perfect as if it just came with a westward movement at higher latitude
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MaineJay
post Jul 3 2017, 08:52 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 3 2017, 09:23 AM) *
Is it me or is that too far south. Thats 1 way it would have better chance to come closer or hit land... to have a further south latitude track. Then timing wont have to be as perfect as if it just came with a westward movement at higher latitude



It seems the most southerly of the guidance, it also looks like only about 10 members ~20%, generate a cyclone.

3.6z GFS ensembles
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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 3 2017, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 3 2017, 07:06 AM) *
Front after front coming into eastern u.s. timing will have to be perfect for this to hit any land imo




Yes will have to watch how frontal systems and troughing sets up hopefully we wont have it close enough to throw a bunch of moisture into the front, while some places need it that is surely not the way you want it.

A lot of dry air off to the north I feel is hampering activity around it now but that should start to push away in the next day or so. Would not be surprised to see a TS by the wednesday after that it is anyones guess.


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Undertakerson
post Jul 3 2017, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 3 2017, 09:23 AM) *
Is it me or is that too far south. Thats 1 way it would have better chance to come closer or hit land... to have a further south latitude track. Then timing wont have to be as perfect as if it just came with a westward movement at higher latitude

UKIE (FSU view) seems to support the further south track, so those ensembles are not "way out there" or anything.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 3 2017, 03:20 PM
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And depending on Ridge and trough set up, (if they leave it alone for the most part), it will try to seek those very warm waters off the FL coast.

Nothing certain at this point, but can't be ignored - that's for certain. For me, I would think that climatology somewhat suggests a recurve outcome - but with these critters, always hesitant to speak with any certainty.
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MaineJay
post Jul 3 2017, 06:18 PM
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Satellite shot

Attached Image

Scatterometer

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.htm...7&id=INVEST


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 3 2017, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 3 2017, 07:18 PM) *


Looks as though we may see a flare up of convection it has nice circulation, is that of the surface or midlevels?


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MaineJay
post Jul 3 2017, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 3 2017, 07:23 PM) *
Looks as though we may see a flare up of convection it has nice circulation, is that of the surface or midlevels?


I believe it measures ocean "roughness", so surface.


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 3 2017, 06:39 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary area
of low pressure located about 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday.
Additional development is likely, and a tropical depression could
form during the next several days before environmental conditions
become a little less conducive for development at the end of the
week. The disturbance is expected to begin moving slowly
northwestward on Tuesday, followed by a faster west-northwestward
motion across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through the remainder of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 4 2017, 04:10 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the well-defined
low pressure system located about 750 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing winds to near tropical storm force
close to the center. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and
become a little better organized over the past several hours and, if
this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a
tropical storm could form later today or on Wednesday. The low is
expected to move slowly westward today, and then move toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph by tonight and on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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