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> POST Tropical Depression 4, 7/7 5PM EST 25mph - 1012mb -Movement: WNW@ 21mph
MaineJay
post Jul 4 2017, 04:26 AM
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Satellite shot
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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=12

AMSU pass
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.htm...7&id=INVEST

4.0z GFS ensembles
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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Jul 4 2017, 06:05 AM
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4.0z ECMWF ensembles.

Edit: I'll add a little commentary. It appears to me that more members are generating a tropical cyclone. I count 4 (~8%) that appear to have a "long track", I chalk that up to it developing a cyclone sooner, like today, whereas most wait till the 7th.

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 4 2017, 06:09 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2017, 06:54 AM
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Latest models still have it but weak. Canadian hits North Carolina.


Dont forget this site


Here's the latest tracks from different models (Euro not on here).

Note the Canadian is the only one hitting land but also note the crazy spread still. Too far out still.

The more south in Latitude it is, the better the chances of U.S hit or close. IMO.





Very unorganized but Thunderstorms are popping up.






AND Here's another awesome site you can track it with.


http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi...;latestinvest=1


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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2017, 08:01 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jul 4 2017, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 4 2017, 09:01 AM) *



Strengthens faster probably = recurve

Weaker could result in potential landfall with some intensification possible once it hits the warmer water near the N end of Islands and over towards Fl.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2017, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 4 2017, 10:05 AM) *
Strengthens faster probably = recurve

Weaker could result in potential landfall with some intensification possible once it hits the warmer water near the N end of Islands and over towards Fl.


Totally agree. Im just happy theres something to track. Talk about a boring summer. Not even any heat waves coming up since mid June. Lol. No complaints at all, lets keep this normal summer going here.
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Phased Vort
post Jul 4 2017, 01:11 PM
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It's interesfing how the 00Z ECMWF develops the system, then kind of dissolves it aa it heads to the Bahamas, and the redevelops it rather quickly as it nears ghe southeast coast.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 4 2017, 01:37 PM
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Still like the idea of this becoming a TS by tomorrow and probably TD later today. Conditions just do not seem terribly ripe for decent tropical development large global scale sinking in the area and this seems to be skirting the edge of a lot of things seems like the weaker scenario may play out a lot better for this to happen.

Im impressed with how intact these waves coming off Africa have been for this time of year.


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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2017, 02:33 PM
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Biggest change I see in latest updates aside from being a weaker storm is the troughs and cold air is stronger dipping into eastern U.S. (more than 1). implying stronger and colder cold fronts. I dont doubt the 2 are related. Maybe shearing things more than anticipated.

Euro12z 850mb anomaly

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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2017, 09:17 PM
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https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/882421843457716225

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Ron in Miami
post Jul 6 2017, 04:20 AM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 060834
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017

...DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 40.0W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with an additional
increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is not currently expected to become a tropical storm.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2017, 03:51 AM
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Keep forgetting this has its own thread

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QUOTE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070842
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017

The small, tenacious depression has continued to hold its own early
this morning with the low-level center now having moved up into the
deep convective cloud mass, with the center being north of the
previous advisory positions based on earlier scatterometer and buoy
wind data. Upper-level outflow is fair in all quadrants, albeit
elongated from northwest to southeast, and the vertical wind shear
has now shifted from northeasterly to light southwesterly at less
than 5 kt. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt based
on 0600 UTC satellite classifications of 25 kt from TAFB and SAB,
but it wouldn't surprise me if the system isn't a little stronger
given the noticeable improvement in the convective cloud pattern
since the time of those fixes.

The initial motion estimate is 285/19 kt. The new NHC forecast track
has been shifted northward of the previous advisory track, but only
due to the more northward initial position. Otherwise, there is
little change to the previous forecast reasoning. A strong low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the depression should act to steer
the small cyclone generally west-northwestward until dissipation
occurs in about 96 h. The new forecast track lies down the middle
of the tightly clustered model suite, near the consensus model TVCN.

The depression is expected to retain that status for another 36 h or
so while the vertical wind shear remains relatively low at less than
15 kt. By 36-48 h, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase to around 20 kt, which should induce gradual weakening. The
small cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48-72
h and dissipate by 96 h. There is one important caveat to note and
that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and
even strengthening in 96 and 120 h
when the system is approaching
the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not
show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar
improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 h.
For
now, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 h, after which the
forecast is lower than the intensity consensus.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 7 2017, 04:12 PM
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TD4 degenerates into a wave, but I won't write it off just yet. There are better conditions ahead in the Bahamas and the GFS and Euro still show the energy/remnants making it to thhe FL coast by next week.



BULLETIN
Remnants Of Four Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
500 PM AST Fri Jul 07 2017

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 52.5W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Tropical Depression Four
were located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 52.5 West. The
remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 7 2017, 08:01 PM
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04L is as stubborn as 99L and refusing to go away lol...nice flare up of convection, and just now entering Dmax so lets see what it looks like in the morning. Last fix on the LLC was on the south side of that blob.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2017, 12:55 PM
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Was checking out Goes16 earlier, and the images are phenomenal. Easily spotted the swirl from 04L on visible:

GOES16 live view


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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2017, 08:45 PM
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I'm surprised this place is so dead O_o 04L has come back from the grave and entering a favorable shear zone right now. Conditions around the Bahamas are ripe for development.

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stxprowl
post Jul 8 2017, 09:24 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 8 2017, 09:45 PM) *
I'm surprised this place is so dead O_o 04L has come back from the grave and entering a favorable shear zone right now. Conditions around the Bahamas are ripe for development.

Ya looks good ATM but the NHC says all quiet the next 5 days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

http://www.spaghettimodels.com
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 9 2017, 08:29 AM
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been able to keep its convection together for the last 12 hours or so but i think that low pressure above it is going to limit its strengthening... plus, there is no model guidance that i have access too that shows regeneration.



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Undertakerson
post Jul 10 2017, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Jul 9 2017, 09:29 AM) *
been able to keep its convection together for the last 12 hours or so but i think that low pressure above it is going to limit its strengthening... plus, there is no model guidance that i have access too that shows regeneration.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 10 2017, 02:39 PM
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