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> Tropical Storm Don, 7/18 5AM EST 50mph - 1007mb -Movement: W@ 18mph
Ron in Miami
post Jul 16 2017, 06:56 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A low pressure trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 18 2017, 04:25 AM
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 16 2017, 06:58 AM
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Possible Don, or could be another struggling TD only time will tell.


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Qdeathstar
post Jul 17 2017, 06:49 AM
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this one looking pretty healthy on the satellite and nhc says there is one right behind it that has a 20% chance to form over the next five days


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 17 2017, 07:02 AM
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The lower latitude track seems viable for a storm to form due to avoiding that Bermuda high to the north, I'm just wondering when the curve north will happen.
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DrewNola
post Jul 17 2017, 02:51 PM
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Getting reports from recon of possible closed circulation with Invest #95L. Could be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 soon
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DrewNola
post Jul 17 2017, 04:37 PM
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WTNT35 KNHC 172100
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grenada.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36
hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the
Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

This post has been edited by DrewNola: Jul 17 2017, 04:39 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 17 2017, 04:50 PM
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grenada.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36
hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the
Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 17 2017, 04:52 PM
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Track

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 17 2017, 04:52 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 17 2017, 04:54 PM
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We already have a thread for Don, Invest 95L was upgraded.
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 05:13 PM
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Might get a nice tracker going with Don or the latter aw disturbance finally





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“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 17 2017, 05:37 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 17 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Might get a nice tracker going with Don or the latter aw disturbance finally


I wouldn't hold my breath, all the model runs so far the last few days kill it off in the Caribbean. Too much shear across the central part, Don will probably be short lived. As far as future 96L, it will be around for a while but looks like a weak fish storm according to the models.

Interesting part is we are on the 4th storm, just over 6 weeks into the season! Could be looking at an active season ahead.
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risingriver
post Jul 17 2017, 07:58 PM
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Is it just me or is the tropical form not showing up inside the current weather any more? Only way I can get here is a back door.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 18 2017, 04:26 AM
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Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...DON MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, and Curacao should monitor
the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Don is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected through
Wednesday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Don will
move across the Windward Islands tonight, and then move westward
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through tonight while Don approaches
the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected on Wednesday while Don
moves across the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late afternoon and tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the southern Windward Islands
through Wednesday morning. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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MaineJay
post Jul 18 2017, 05:15 AM
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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Ahoff
post Jul 19 2017, 09:36 AM
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I feel like they are just naming storms to boost their numbers. Don lasted less than a day it seems, its almost like why bother naming it?
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 19 2017, 07:11 PM
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if it's a tropical storm it becomes a tropical storm, irregardless of how long it lasted... After the season they also do an analysis and check for missed storms, sometime they add a tropical depression or storm to the yearly report.


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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