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> Tropical Depression Emily, 7/31 5PM EST 35mph - 1007mb -Movement: ENE@ 12mph
Ron in Miami
post Jul 30 2017, 12:52 PM
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We have 98L in the gulf now:

AL, 98, 2017072912, , BEST, 0, 302N, 882W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2017072918, , BEST, 0, 295N, 880W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2017073000, , BEST, 0, 290N, 877W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2017073006, , BEST, 0, 287N, 871W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2017073012, , BEST, 0, 285N, 865W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 80, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al762017 to al982017,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 31 2017, 05:19 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 30 2017, 12:55 PM
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Could see a short lived TS out of this one.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 30 2017, 12:57 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see
additional information from your local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 30 2017, 04:55 PM
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Follow link for loop

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

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Undertakerson
post Jul 31 2017, 03:16 AM
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a small low pressure area located about 90 miles
west of Tampa, Florida, are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
additional development before the low moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula later today or tonight, and over the
western Atlantic late Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the
next couple of days. Please see additional information from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the
rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 31 2017, 05:43 AM
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000 WTNT31 KNHC 310948 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Englewood Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over the central Florida peninsula later today and move across central Florida through tonight. The depression is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 31 2017, 05:45 AM
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On my phone at work, that cut and paste came out wonky for some reason O_o Could have Emily later today!
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NorEaster07
post Jul 31 2017, 08:15 AM
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They do seem to be jumpy on naming things. I was wondering about this one too at this point in time.

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KENNYP2339
post Jul 31 2017, 11:26 AM
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probably trying to inflate there season totals to justify there funding, not the proper way of doing things if this is correct
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 31 2017, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 31 2017, 12:26 PM) *
probably trying to inflate there season totals to justify there funding, not the proper way of doing things if this is correct


Dont feed the beast on this one there have been countless times over the years where this has happened and we question the authenticity of such an occurrence. I do agree it looks rather weak and should hold at least TD status given it looks to have a closed low level circulation with convection shoved ESE due to northerly shear from the stalled frontal boundary it formed off of but it never seemed to really catch my eye given proximity to land.

I hope for one they arent doing as such but im sure they are getting lip from others about it for sure. I do not like that meteorologists would blantly put information out there to in some sense hurt or denounce the very people they so often use for guidance. This is the bad that comes from dealing with social media, information can get out there which is great but the hate and the bad mouthing of individuals and organizations has got to stop. Saw an article about the past weekends nor easter with the a similar demeaning message of well thankfully we prepared for a failed forecast when they themselves knew how tricky of a northern edge the rains would be and then everyone started chiming in " well it must be nice to get paid a salary where you can be wrong 50% of the time!" Do you know how annoying this is to be constantly told we are doing our jobs wrong all the time because instead of getting 2-3" of rain you received a half inch of rain. lol

Ok done my rant for now. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 31 2017, 01:05 PM


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stretchct
post Jul 31 2017, 03:32 PM
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Well, there was this ob at 10:53 from Sarasota which brings it to, just about, TS strength. Change in direction looks indicative of closed circ as well. Interesting swirl now on the radar between tampa and lakeland.

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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 31 2017, 03:52 PM
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"Soon after dark, Emily cries. Gazing at trees in sorrow, hardly a sound til tomorrow."

https://www.bing.com/search?q=emily+plays+p...-US&PC=DCTE

Sorry, just spinning some old wax. rolleyes.gif
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 31 2017, 05:21 PM
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Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the remainder
of the Florida west coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 81.7 West. Emily is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this afternoon and early
evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the
central Florida peninsula this evening, and move offshore of the
east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while Emily
moves across the central Florida peninsula tonight. Slow
strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic
Ocean on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to
8 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 31 2017, 05:25 PM
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Just wanted to add my 2 cents to some comments earlier, many a time I have seen people here and on other blogs crying about spinning clouds somewhere in the Atlantic saying this should be classified as a TD or TS already what is the NHC thinking blah blah blah....

So when they do name one, then you cry oh this is weak, what a waste of a name blah blah blah....

Damned if you do and damned if you don't I guess. Be happy there is something to track, since it's been quiet for the last month now. And the NHC needs funding regardless, so if a couple weak storms pad the numbers so be it.
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 31 2017, 08:58 PM
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i'm pretty sure noaa's funding isn't determined by how many storms we had last year anyway. If it is related in any way, it would the number of large memorable storms.. no one is going to say "hey, we had 27 tropical storms last year, MAXIMUM FUNDING" On the other hand, if the only named storm of the season is a cat 5 that strikes a major city, MAXIMUM FUNDING.

wink.gif


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 1 2017, 12:07 PM
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Oh and if you didnt know, since it seems the weather channel is beating the *bleep* out of this drum, but emily ended up being the quickest forming to landfalling system in history which is not really saying all too much considering the proximity to land in the first place. I mean i guess one could consider it something special but to go from a thunderstorm complex to a TS (40mph) is not really all too exciting but I guess whatever gets into peoples minds that things change quickly.

Hope they dont beat the climate change drum on this one!


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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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