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> Hurricane Gert, 8/16 8AM EST CAT2 105 MPH - 967mb - Movement: ENE @ 37mph
Ron in Miami
post Aug 3 2017, 06:12 AM
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AL, 99, 2017080306, , BEST, 0, 100N, 172W, 20, 1010, LO

Last 2 runs of the GFS show this becoming Franklin and coming towards the East Coast. This one will need to be watched closely.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Aug 15 2017, 03:57 AM
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 3 2017, 06:20 AM
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Todays 06z run, pressue was in the 960s prior to resolution drop, and then kept going down afterwards. This would likely be a major at landfall if it played out.
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Phased Vort
post Aug 3 2017, 01:09 PM
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12Z ECMWF starts to develop this possible system on the hour 48 frame.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 05:28 PM
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GFS going nuts with 99L and has it down to 943mb while still just east of the Bahama chain. Path north is blocked the northeast.

(run verbatim, of course)
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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 05:39 PM
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Hoo boy.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 05:42 PM
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This run trying to go strong 4 I would imagine.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 05:46 PM
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Well that run was interesting. Add it to the "grand ensemble" and move on.
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phillyfan
post Aug 3 2017, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 3 2017, 06:46 PM) *
Well that run was interesting. Add it to the "grand ensemble" and move on.

As long as this doesn't end up affecting the weekend of the 19th and 20th in PA then I'm fine with whatever becomes of this.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 06:42 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Aug 3 2017, 07:03 PM) *
As long as this doesn't end up affecting the weekend of the 19th and 20th in PA then I'm fine with whatever becomes of this.

Now, that's a black cat jinx if I've ever heard one. tongue.gif

But it would have to slow by several degrees in order for that to happen.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 3 2017, 06:43 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 3 2017, 06:59 PM
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Up to 40/80 on the 8 p.m. update.
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SnowMan11
post Aug 3 2017, 11:18 PM
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0z GFS time
Starting to track this wink.gif


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TC1
post Aug 3 2017, 11:56 PM
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And the latest GFS Magic 8-ball track looks a bit like Matthew from last year... for the first half anyway. Bottoms out at 926mb.

(click it)


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Undertakerson
post Aug 4 2017, 03:33 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Aug 4 2017, 12:56 AM) *
And the latest GFS Magic 8-ball track looks a bit like Matthew from last year... for the first half anyway. Bottoms out at 926mb.

(click it)


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The coastal waters in S FL are as high as they get I believe. I've seen upper 80's in most regions from Canaveral over to Crystal River, even a few 90 reports. That is why the GFS depiction drops the bomb hammer when it tries to take the energy up between Bahamas and Bimini.

Euro says - meh, I don't think so.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 4 2017, 05:03 AM
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GFS starting to mean - Gulp! Forecasting System, with this one. The 6z is even deeper than all its older brothers were blink.gif
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Undertakerson
post Aug 4 2017, 05:23 AM
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I think this run of the GFS is a triple espresso for RoninMiami
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MaineJay
post Aug 4 2017, 05:24 AM
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GFS ensembles TC genesis probabilities 0-120 hours
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When you add in the CMC and ECMWF, probabilities drop by 30-40%
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I know that even a blind squirrel finds a nut, but I've yet to encounter a blind squirrel in the wild...


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MaineJay
post Aug 4 2017, 05:37 AM
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Last 24 hours, loop

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Aug 4 2017, 05:47 AM
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All I can say is that the most nervous of all, ATTM, most likely are the folks on the OBX region. Not only the disaster their season took with the power issue, but with some of the modeling suggesting a Cat3 or so cane in their backyard....
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 4 2017, 05:50 AM
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Logged in to update the title page and see Vort beat me to it! biggrin.gif Morning guys, this one is gonna keep us up some late nights for sure O_o
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stretchct
post Aug 4 2017, 07:32 AM
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GFS started this one 8/2 18z run. Been fairly consistent since. Wave that came off Africa one of the more/most significant of the season. Euro has some minor development and dissipates before reaching the islands. Euro spins one up in the western Caribbean and sends into TX/Mex instead.

Saharan layer some room to play
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Shear tendency looks favorable
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Shea looks favorable
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