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> Major Hurricane Harvey, 8/25 11AM AST CAT4 50 MPH - 1004mb - Movement: WNW @ 13mph
Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 06:47 AM
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AL, 91, 2017081206, , BEST, 0, 138N, 117W, 15, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
AL, 91, 2017081212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 133W, 15, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
AL, 91, 2017081218, , BEST, 0, 135N, 149W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
AL, 91, 2017081300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 165W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
AL, 91, 2017081306, , BEST, 0, 135N, 181W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al742017 to al912017,

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Aug 17 2017, 07:55 PM
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Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 10:07 AM
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Here we go!

Wave just off the cost of Africa.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have them. Of course, differing intensity, but similar track towards the Bahamas, and then they have a difference in opinions.


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Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 12:29 PM
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12Z GFS, continues to follow its previous runs.

Threat still alive.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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shane o mac
post Aug 13 2017, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 13 2017, 02:29 PM) *
12Z GFS, continues to follow its previous runs.

Threat still alive.

Only issue its 9-10 days out we saw how that turned out the past few threats .. but hope things start to heat up however ..
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Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Aug 13 2017, 03:03 PM) *
Only issue its 9-10 days out we saw how that turned out the past few threats .. but hope things start to heat up however ..



Yea.

I threat does not necessarily mean that it will actually come to fruition.



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Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 03:15 PM
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The 12Z ECMWF develops tow tropical systems.

91L is the system behind and tracks to the north.

This run, develops the wave ahead of 91L and takes it into the Caribbean and ends with it south of Miami on frame 240.

At least that what it seems to be on the 12Z ECMWF.


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MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 05:43 PM
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Oops, should've posted the 13.12z Operationals here

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 05:52 PM
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SC again this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
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MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 05:54 PM
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13 hour meteosat loop

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=30


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 06:51 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 07:01 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 13 2017, 06:54 PM) *


I forget, what is the term when waves roll off Africa and lose their convection? it's on the tip of my tongue but can't remember....I know when waves move from land to sea the convection dies off and takes a while to regain itself. it's just been a long day and my brain is fried X_x
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MaineJay
post Aug 14 2017, 04:31 AM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 13 2017, 08:01 PM) *
I forget, what is the term when waves roll off Africa and lose their convection? it's on the tip of my tongue but can't remember....I know when waves move from land to sea the convection dies off and takes a while to regain itself. it's just been a long day and my brain is fried X_x



I'm not sure of that term. But 91L is showing some renewed convection near the "swirl".

10.5 hour loop
Attached Image

ECMWF getting frisky, brings this buggah into the GOMEX... also develops a subsequent wave.
Attached Image


Time to get the band back together?


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Phased Vort
post Aug 14 2017, 05:17 AM
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Very interesting two weeks ahead of us.

The GFS now takes the punch out of 91L, which may be the first step to move towards a more ECMWF-ish solution.

It seems the ECMWF develops the system that goes into the GOMEX from another wave, but it may be the fusion of the 91L wave with trough of low pressure. With 24 hour frames it gets hard to know.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 14 2017, 05:39 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 14 2017, 06:17 AM) *
Very interesting two weeks ahead of us.

The GFS now takes the punch out of 91L, which may be the first step to move towards a more ECMWF-ish solution.

It seems the ECMWF develops the system that goes into the GOMEX from another wave, but it may be the fusion of the 91L wave with trough of low pressure. With 24 hour frames it gets hard to know.

Almost as if the GFS is trying to see the Euro solution of a dual core (two systems essentially), quashing the energy it had used, combined, to make the EC threat - now seems to fracture that energy field and allow the southern piece (Caribbean cruising piece) to go it alone. More or less, allowing neither to develop.

Oy vey!
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Undertakerson
post Aug 14 2017, 05:42 AM
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00z UKM also shows two distinct areas - one rides directly west through lower Caribbean, the other proceeds through the islands of DR/Haiti/PR etc.

Since the UKM is a truncated model (ends at Hr168) it's hard to say where either piece ends up. Extrapolation would suggest that Piece One goes towards Yucutan- while Piece Two would cruise towards Miami.

Attached Image


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MaineJay
post Aug 14 2017, 06:21 AM
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So 91L doesn't even really show up in this view, but impressive convection. It might be the area that the ECMWF develops. I misspoke earlier, haphazardly looking at model output. dry.gif

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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wiivile
post Aug 14 2017, 08:37 AM
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Does this system have any potential to impact viewing conditions along eastern US for the eclipse ?

Does a solar eclipse have any impact on tropical cyclones ?

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 14 2017, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 14 2017, 05:31 AM) *
I'm not sure of that term. But 91L is showing some renewed convection near the "swirl".

10.5 hour loop
Attached Image

ECMWF getting frisky, brings this buggah into the GOMEX... also develops a subsequent wave.
Attached Image
Time to get the band back together?


I can't play any instruments

Cowbell it is


--------------------
“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 14 2017, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 14 2017, 09:53 AM) *
I can't play any instruments

Cowbell it is


Get out of here. RGEM snowmap cant be used here. You're out of your league.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Phased Vort
post Aug 14 2017, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 14 2017, 05:39 AM) *
Almost as if the GFS is trying to see the Euro solution of a dual core (two systems essentially), quashing the energy it had used, combined, to make the EC threat - now seems to fracture that energy field and allow the southern piece (Caribbean cruising piece) to go it alone. More or less, allowing neither to develop.

Oy vey!


Nice one.

But still, if that energy that goes towards the Caribbean and develops as it heads towards the GOMEX, i must say that itīs a pretty nasty outcome to have for the GOMEX coast.

Could get ugly.


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